Yes. Its does allow for that - but the real issue is that it does not allow for the SG in Aust. If it is added for Aust then it would further reinforce the message of greater reliance on income tax collections in Aust
April PMIs for Aust showed further signs of stagflation.
The business conditions PMI rebounded but to a soft 50.1 (the fall in Mar looked a bit extreme) & its still down on prior levels.
Employment was ok but orders are weak
And input & output price indicators rose to 2022 levels
Eurozone shares -0.4%
US shares +1.1% to record, Nasdaq +1.6%..with Strait still close but strong earnings, incl Tesla beat after mkt
US 10 yr yld +1bp to 4.3%
Oil +0.4% to $92.5
Gold +0.4% to $4739
Iron ore +0.2% to $107.3
Bitcoin n$78.6k
ASX futures -0.3%
$A 0.716 w $US flat
Eurozone shares -0.9%
US shares -0.6%..as no US/Iran talks,Trump says “I expect to be bombing” but then extends ceasefire indefinitely. Strait still closed
US 10 yr yld +4bp to 4.29%
Oil -2.8% to $92
Gold -2.1% to $4720
Iron ore +0.1% to $107
Bitcoin $75.6k
ASX futures -0.7%
$A 0.715 w $US +0.4%
NZ Mar qtr CP inflation +0.9%q/3.1%y, slightly > exp but only showing one mth of War.
Underlying measures little changed, mostly > 2% target mid point.
Biz surveys point to higher infl ahead.
The money mkt has priced in nearly 3 RBnz hikes this yr
(Macquarie Macro Strategy chart)
Eurozone shares -1.2%
US shares -0.2% as Strait stays closed, Trump says unlikely to extend ceasefire, but hopes remain for deal
US 10 yr yld flat at 4.25%
Oil +6.8% to $89.6
Gold -0.2% to $4820.7
Iron ore +0.8% to $106.9
Bitcoin $75.9k
ASX futures +0.5%
$A 0.717 w $US index flat
(Bloomberg chart)
Prelim Domain auction clearances
Syd 55%=final ~54%,Apr avg 65
Mel 58%=final ~55%,Apr avg 66
Clearances remain soft as rate hikes, poor affordability and poor confidence depress buyer demand. An end to the War may boost to confidence but may be offset by rate hikes.
#ausecon
Eurozone shares +1.8% (+2.1% wk)
US shares +1.2% (+4.5% wk) after Iran said Strait open for 10 day Is/Leb ceasefire, more signs of Iran deal
US 10 yr yld -6bp to 4.25%
Oil -11.4% to $83.9
Gold +0.8% to $4830
Iron ore -0.8% to $106.1
Bitcoin $77.2k
ASX futures +0.9%
$A 0.716 w $US -0.1%
Weekly economic and market update - US shares at record high on TACO; Aust shares lagging on bigger stagflation/RBA worries; Strait of Hormuz needs to reopen soon to avoid recession; RBA leaning to hike in May
www.amp.com.au/resources/in...
Cotality home prices for Apr mth to date:
Syd-0.1% (-0.2% mthly rate)
Mel -0.3%
Bri +0.7%
Ade +0.5%
Per +1.3%
5 city avg +0.2% (0.4% mthly rate)
The slowdown on the back of higher rates, poor affordability & hit to confidence from the War continues with even Ade & Bri slowing
Eurozone shares -0.1%
US shares +0.3%, Nas +0.4% w Trump saying prospects for Iran deal look very good
US 10 yr yld +3bp to 4.31%
Oil +2.4% to $93.1..w Strait shipping still very low
Gold flat at $4794
Iron ore +0.4% to $106.7
Bitcoin $75.1k
ASX futures -0.1%
$A 0.716 w $US flat
China Mar qtr GDP +1.3%q taking annual grth to a > exp 5%y, helped by exports.
IP & inv growth in Mar were > exp but retail sales grth was softer, but smoothed growth for all has improved since late last yr. Property price falls slowed. China doing a bit better into the War!
Aust Mar jobs data was solid: emp +18k, full time jobs +53k, hrs wkd +0.5%mom, unemp flat at 4.3% and underemp flat at 5.9%. Leaves the jobs mkt a bit tight & RBA biased to higher rates. Money mkt has 70% prob of May hike, I think its closer to 60% (as RBA needs to weigh grth hit from oil shock too)
Eurozone shares -0.7%
US shares +0.8%, Nas +1.6%..record highs on talk of ceasefire extension/peace talks despite Strait ships remains v low
US 10 yr yld +3bp to 4.28%
Oil -0.4% to $90.9
Gold -1% to $4794
Iron ore +1% to $106.3
Bitcoin $74.9k
ASX futures +0.1%
$A 0.717 w $US flat
Eurozone shares +1.4%
US shares +1.2% to just -0.2% below record hi w talk of more US/Iran talks/optimism war is winding down. Nas 2%
US 10 yr yld -4bp to 4.25%
Oil -6.7% to $91.3
Gold +2% to $4841.8
Iron ore -0.8% to $105.3
Bitcoin $74.3k
ASX futures +0.4%
$A 0.7119 w $US -0.3%
The Westpac/MI consumer survey also showed a fall in home price growth expectations and perceptions as to whether now is a good time to buy a dwelling remaining low.
The plunge in consumer confidence points to much weaker consumer spending ahead.
The Westpac/MI consumer sentiment index fell 12% in Apr taking it ~ pandemic & 2022 lows. The decline was broad based across components & housing situation with expectations of higher unempl. The ANZ/Roy Morgan measure is even weaker.
HIA new home sales +7% in March likely reflecting the lagged impact of last years rate cuts and the expanded FHB 5% deposit scheme. This years rate hikes and hit from to confidence from the War and oil shock are likely to be drags going forward.
(HIA chart)
US existing home sales -3.6% in March to a nine month low with higher mortgage rates impacting along with weaker consumer confidence.
(EvercoreISI chart)
Eurozone shares 0.4%
US shares +1%, Nasdaq +1.2%..Trump Iran wants to work a deal (maybe Iran will conclude it doesnt need nukes when it can block the Strait)
US 10 yr yld -3bp to 4.29%
Oil +1.4% to $97.9
Gold -0.1% to $4747
Iron ore +0.5% $106.1
Bitcoin $64,2k
ASX futures +1.3%
$A 0.709 w $US -0.2%
Prelim Domain auction clearances
Syd 55%=final ~54%,Apr avg 65
Mel 56%=final ~52%,Apr avg 66
Clearances are continuing to fall with as rate hikes, poor affordability and a hit to confidence and household budgets from the War all impact buyer demand.
#ausecon
US Uni Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 47.6 (below its 2022 low - so US consumers are now less confident than they got to under Biden!)
1 year inflation expectations rose to 4.8%, 5-10 year remained at 3.4%..which is above levels seen in the 2022 infl surge
(Bloomberg charts)
Eurozone shares +0.5% (+4% wk)
US shares -0.1% (+3.6% wk)…ahead of US/Iran talks. Nas +0.4%
US 10 yr yld +4bp to 4.32% with CPI spike
Oil -1.3% to $96.6
Gold -0.4% to $4749.8
Iron ore +0.5% to $105.6
Bitcoin $72.9k
ASX futures+0.8%
$A 0.7053 w $US index -0.2%
(Bloomberg charts)
US Mar CPI 0.9%m/3.3%yoy, with higher fuel prices, pretty much as exp.
Core CPI was better behaved (for now) at +0.2%m/2.6%y but implies core PCE ~3.1%y.
Leaves Fed on hold. Last year Trumps tariffs meant higher than otherwise Fed rates, this year it’s the War!
(EvercoreISI chart)
Weekly economic and market update - shares bounce on TACO Tuesday ceasefire but will it hold?; the Strait of Hormuz remains the key; hit to Aust household remains big, esp for diesel users; RBA still likely to hike further
www.amp.com.au/resources/in...
US data was softish with Dec qtr GDP grth revised to just 0.5%annual rate
Feb pers income just +0.1%,real spending just 0.1%. Savings rate well below pre covid
Core PCE +0.4%mom/3%yoy as exp. Core goods +0.8%m..tariffs?
Initial jobless claim +16k but still low
Leaves fed on hold
(EvercoreISI charts)
Eurozone shares -0.3%
US shares +0.6% on hopes ceasefire holds. Has now recovered 76% of fall. Nas +0.8%
US 10 yr yld -1bp to 4.28%
Oil +3.7% to $97.8
Gold +1.1% to $4772.5
Iron ore -1.2% to $105.3
Bitcoin $72.3k
ASX futures -0.1%
$A 0.708 with $US index -0.2%
Eurozone shares +5%
US shares +2.5%, Nas +2.8% on ceasefire - uncertainties remain but US shares have recovered 70% of fall to 30/3 lo
US 10 yr yld -1bp to 4.29%
Oil -16% to $94.4
Gold +0.2% to $4719.2
Iron ore -1.1% to $106.5
Bitcoin $71.6k
ASX futures -0.2%
$A 0.704 w $US -0.8%