If Iran wants its future threats to re-close the Strait of Hormuz to be seen as serious leverage vs a future US administration, it's going to be tricky for Tehran to reopen the Strait before we see more acute—and truly undeniable—economic harm than we've currently seen realized.
*yet
no need to include the rest, first 7 words really sum up Trump's vibe atm
Hey, folks, remind me—did the JCPOA cede any go-forward control of the Strait of Hormuz to Tehran?
I always recommend watching @roryjohnston.bsky.social's appearances. One of the most reliable analysts of the tangible impacts of Trump's Hormuz Crisis.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9el...
NYT: “Iran still has about 40 percent of its arsenal of attack drones and upward of 60 percent of its missile launchers — more than enough to hold shipping in the Strait of Hormuz hostage in the future.”
www.nytimes.com/2026/04/18/u...
Busy and chaotic morning in the Strait of Hormuz
> handful of ships make it across the Strait this morning
> then at least one Indian tanker reports it was attacked by Iran, forced to turn back
> Iran declares the Strait is closed again
“open and/or rapidly opening”
Here’s the official waiver extension from OFAC:
Two days apart.
Every week, I summarize and analyze developments in flat crude prices, calendar spreads, high-frequency inventories, refined products, and positioning data, as well as a taste of the themes I’ve been thinking about or following closely
Subscribe and read: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw16w26
🛢️ OIL & IRAN WAR CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️
Crude prices cratered and term structure flattened on Friday following Iran’s declaration that Hormuz is “open” despite the fact that little traffic has actually managed to cross the Strait today.
Summary below, link in reply.
Lotta people seem to think the US blockade is a strategic masterstroke sure to end the war.
Which begs the question: why wait 6 weeks to impose one?
From Iran's perspective keeping the Strait closed for a full month while not being actively bombed is an ideal position from which to continue building steady leverage.
Truly hope this ends soon, but, again, this remains a crisis of lost time—and this sounds like more time lost.
HSBC CEO “The highest I’ve seen, and I’m hoping we don’t see more of that, but the highest I’ve seen is $286 for a barrel of oil that reached Sri Lanka”
That’s a delivered barrel so includes shipping, insurance, etc.
But it’s still an eye-watering price to pay.
FT full quote:
If helpful:
bsky.app/profile/rory...
Charting the Brent complex today to add some context to the numbers bouncing around.
Pretty well everything weird in the current oil market can be explained via *extreme* backwardation (i.e., near-term delivery premia), and that extends into even more acute backwardation in the physical Brent curve
Dated Brent crude vs prompt Brent futures
Normally pretty tight, but not right now.
Mind the gap.
Nothing wrong with believing that the Iran War will soon end and Hormuz will be reopened next week. Feels sanguine at this point, but possible and I hope you’re right
But you’re irresponsibly wrong if you argue that market reaction thus far “proves” that “we never needed Hormuz”
📊 NEW OPEC+ DATA 📊
OPEC+ crude output fell to an all-time low in March driven by Hormuz closure and Gulf shut-ins; original OPEC output fell to the lowest lvl since Desert Storm in 1990
Read the full report and see how badly the Iran War broke all my charts
www.commoditycontext.com/p/opec-data-...
OPEC+ crude production fell to an all-time low for the expanded producer group in March.
And for OG OPEC, it’s the lowest recorded crude production since Desert Storm in 1990.
OPEC+ "Great 8" production just ever so slightly off plan for the month.
Trump crashing out biblically tonight
Lol!
Ad hoc grand strategic sanity-washing without end.
Since folks seem to love tanker maps, here's ALL the tankers, courtesy of @Vortexa.
Blue are dirty tankers (crude, fuel oil, etc.), white are clean product tankers (gasoline, diesel, etc.) and orange are gas carriers (LNG, LPG, etc.)
