"It would be really bad if they don't work out this Hormuz thing, so they'll figure it out some way" is still the prevailing attitude.
Can see it in markets, media, politicians, public.
Bad can't happen, people in charge know what they're doing, it's all content anyway.
I find it... unsettling.
Grim but useful read.
Global energy markets are on the verge of a disaster
economist.com/finance-and-...
Thrilled that this is out at the APSR! 😀
I document how male elites creatively adapt to electoral reform in Indian village councils.
Relevant for how we think about: 1) limits of reforms meant to equalize power, 2) (male) elite capture, 3) the "proxy" representative debate.
A (late) 🧵
Incredible thread. The level of in person community-building and mutual aid that came out Minneapolis is unprecedented in modern American times.
Ok these two side by side is pretty revealing
Remember, these are the guys trying to control university curriculum to eliminate wokeness...like math
fun fact: two years after Manchin won in West Virginia, a left wing populist ran on this exact platform… and lost to a corporate Republican by 40 points
the conservative white working class doesn’t vote for wealth distribution. they are temporarily embarrassed billionaires who love daddy Trump
This 💯
Also, the average working class person is increasingly non-white (in U.S.) and/or has a migration background (in Europe).
Leaving aside that many white working class men are not far right!
Sowing/Reaping
Jay Bhattacharya has ordered that a paper showing the effectiveness of COVID19 vaccines in preventing severe disease and hospitalization be suppressed and hidden.
This man has been crying nonstop about political censorship for 6 years.
But he’s the one who is actually doing it.
It is objectively bad for democracy that both blue and red states are doing extreme gerrymanders.
But the only feasible solution — a national ban on partisan gerrymandering — has only been endorsed by one party. And it's not the one complaining about Virginia right now.
OA preprint: osf.io/preprints/os...
Good news everyone 🥳 Our (w @vincentab.bsky.social) primer on models as prediction machines (with the marginaleffects package) is finally officially published!>
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
the conservative reaction to the virginia results remind me quite a bit of their reaction to the 2012 presidential election, where they were offended that democrats ran to win
New paper with @bjoernbremer.bsky.social and @catherinedevries.bsky.social out!
The Limits of Public Support for Fiscal Consolidation: Survey Evidence From Great Britain (1/7)
journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
Indeed. Complaints about redistricting are invalid. Republicans did it everywhere and invalidated a Constitutional Amendment so they could do it on explicitly racial lines.
There are two choices: use the same levers of power as Republicans do, or let them win. There is no "principled" opposition.
Process for people like Mandelson
Vs
Process for people like Louise Haigh
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/730...
Tbh I think it's actually kind of obvious that if you think gerrymandering in a two party system is bad, and one of the parties is actively doing that and rejecting legislative efforts to curtail it, the correct move is to counter-gerrymander until you can restore equilibrium and force negotiation.
Can we talk about how harassment and borderline stalking of trans women by gender critical activists has become entirely normalised?
Why can’t a trans woman do a bloody Parkrun without having her privacy violated and her data amassed on a website?!
Is social media dying? How much did Twitter change as it became X? Which party now dominates the conversation?
Using nationally representative ANES data from 2020 & 2024, I map how the U.S. social media landscape has changed
Here are the key take-aways 🧵
Full paper out now in in JQD:DM!
My most liberal idpol radlib take is that I think it's pretty bad that
right wing forces are actively intervening on behalf of the Klan with the full weight of the state legal apparatus
The same as the Senedd elections, I should clarify
The size of the left and right blocs are roughly the same, but it is interesting that the Greens and Tories get a boost seemingly, because FPTP rewards strategic voting for larger parties compared to regional list PR and both their seat winning abilities are huge unknowns.
@aleferna.bsky.social any ideas?
flipping through a proof of yet another book from a somewhat well known liberal voice diagnosing “where the left went wrong” and i’m struck, again, by the fact that a large part (if not most) of the liberal commentariat simply does not believe that the political right has agency.
My own answer to this pretty odd question would be that I wouldn’t choose to taser anyone.
Who would? And framing this around political opponents is really problematic.
The latest YouGov/ITV Wales/Cardiff Uni is a real puzzler given that, alongside Senedd VIs, we also have this - and I have no idea how to reconcile them!
A three pipe problem?!
She should be sacked immediately for this.
Simple rule: the Senate should not confirm any appointee to any post who can’t say clearly who legitimately won the 2020 presidential election. Not just who was “installed”, but who won the vote and the electoral college.
Beth worked as a doctor for years until a transphobe turned up. Now, she's had to leave her job, leave her home, move to the other side of the world and is still being hounded and harassed by the media and cult.
She did nothing but exist as trans in the orbit of Sandie Peggie.