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Posts by Dan Pfeiffer

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The Hidden Story: Trump Is Losing the MAGA Base A 40-point swing in 14 months — and it's not the voters everyone's writing about.

White working-class voters have been Trump’s most loyal supporters and the lifeblood of the MAGA movement.

Even they are now fed up with the chaos, corruption, and high costs. Trump is now underwater with this critical group. Here’s what it means, www.messageboxnews.com/p/the-hidden...

1 day ago 68 9 4 1
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Why the MAGA Media Revolt Matters Even More Than You Think Trump's biggest political asset just became a liability

Pundits and the press keep saying that Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, and Joe Rogan turning on Trump doesn’t matter because MAGA voters are sticking with Trump.

That could not be more wrong. Here’s why: messagebox.substack.com/p/why-the-ma...

6 days ago 61 9 5 0
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No shit

1 week ago 319 36 28 19
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The 25th Amendment Isn't Coming to Save Us Trump's deranged behavior has some Democrats selling a fantasy to voters

The calls for the 25th Amendment are understandable but misguided. J.D. Vance and Trump’s cabinet are not accountable to voters in November. We need voters to understand that Trump is only able to act like this because Republicans in Congress let him. messagebox.substack.com/p/the-25th-a...

1 week ago 252 77 27 15
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The definition of a war crime

1 week ago 179 18 12 9
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Is A Blue Wave Coming to Wash Away Trump? The political environment has never been better for Democrats. So why aren't they doing better?

Donald Trump is enmeshed in an unpopular war that is spiking gas prices. His approval rating is the lowest it’s ever been and he’s facing a brutal political environment. So, why aren’t Democrats winning by more?

I have some answers (and it’s pretty hopeful) messagebox.substack.com/p/is-a-blue-...

2 weeks ago 53 10 4 0
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Trump's Speech: He Declared Victory, But Admitted Defeat. What last night's speech revealed about Trump's war and his presidency.

Trump’s address to the nation was supposed to be a declaration of victory, but it was really an admission of defeat in his war and his second term. www.messageboxnews.com/p/trump-decl...

2 weeks ago 89 23 4 0
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The Surprising Politics of Long TSA Lines As the DHS shutdown comes to a head, Democrats hold all of the cards

Here’s what you need to know about the DHS shutdown, which has led to really long TSA wait times at airports across the country.

It’s Dona;d Trump’s fault, and voters know that. Here’s why: messagebox.substack.com/p/the-surpri...

4 weeks ago 66 15 1 1
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Why Rising Gas Prices Could End the Republican Majority By raising gas prices for an unpopular war Trump has undermined his last remaining political asset.

High gas prices are always bad for any incumbent president, the price spike related to the Iran War threatens to be particularly devastating to Trump and the Republicans’ chances to keep their majority. messagebox.substack.com/p/why-rising...

1 month ago 83 15 3 1
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No Democrat Should Give Trump a Blank Check for His Illegal War The case for opposing funding for Trump's War in Iran

While Democrats almost universally oppose Trump’s War in Iran, many of them are considering voting for a bill to fund the war.

This would be a catastrophic mistake.

Here’s why: messagebox.substack.com/p/no-democra...

1 month ago 293 92 14 5
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A Pro-Trump Billionaire Is About to Own CNN Paramount acquiring Warner Bros means that CNN will be controlled by a MAGA billionaire with an agenda

Please consider subscribing to this "Message Box" newsletter from @danpfeiffer.bsky.social (link in the newsletter.) A Pro-Trump Billionaire Is About to Own CNN open.substack.com/pub/messageb...

1 month ago 20 4 0 0
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A Pro-Trump Billionaire Is About to Own CNN Paramount acquiring Warner Bros means that CNN will be controlled by a MAGA billionaire with an agenda

During a war, a democracy needs a vibrant media that can report on what’s happening and hold the government to account. This war is taking place when much of the mainstream media is controlled by pro-Trump billionaires. And that problem is getting worse messagebox.substack.com/p/the-right-...

1 month ago 95 27 2 2
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Democrats Can Win Texas Three lessons from a messy, important night in Texas.

There are a lot of takes and opinions about @jamestalarico.bsky.social's win in Texas. Most of them are pretty half-baked, but one is very clear.

Dems have a real shot at winning Texas this Fall. www.messageboxnews.com/p/democrats-...

1 month ago 98 14 4 1

"In reality, I broke up with her before she broke up with me."

1 month ago 119 12 1 0
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A War No One Wants, Started by a Man No One Trusts Trump's Iran war is unpopular, unjustified, and Democrats need to say so

Donald Trump’s war of choice is only a few days old, but the American people have already made it clear. They don’t want this war, and they don’t trust Trump to handle the war he started. messagebox.substack.com/p/a-war-no-o...

1 month ago 129 31 4 2
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Trump's Dumb War Is a Test Democrats Must Not Fail Trump has launched an illegal, unjustified war with Iran. Democrats must oppose it — loudly and without apology.

Democrats need to stop complicating something that is actually pretty simple — and loudly, boldly oppose a dumb and dangerous man launching a dumb and dangerous war for no good reason.
www.messageboxnews.com/p/trumps-dum...

1 month ago 183 35 2 2
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have some self-respect, jesus

1 month ago 3013 215 176 42
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Trump's State of the Union Was Political Malpractice Trump gave a speech that should make every Democrat cheer and every Republican on the ballot cry

I woke up this morning shocked by the corporate media’s reaction to Trump’s insanely long, disjointed, incoherent speech.

If Trump's advisers and GOP strategists really thought the State of the Union was good for them, they are all fucking idiots. www.messageboxnews.com/p/trumps-sta...

1 month ago 156 26 7 3
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Subscribe to The Message Box A newsletter for people who want to defeat Donald Trump and MAGA extremism from a former Senior Advisor to Barack Obama. Click to read The Message Box, by Dan Pfeiffer, a Substack publication with hun...

And while you're here, sign up for Message Box, a newsletter about what's happening in politics and what you can do about it: www.messageboxnews.com/subscribe

1 month ago 15 2 0 0
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Trump Stole Your Money. He Won't Give It Back. The Supreme Court said Trump imposed an illegal tax on Americans, he plans to keep the money.

I will put it as simply as possible.

Donald Trump stole your money

The Supreme Court ruled that his tariffs were an illegal tax. Now he has your money, and he won’t give it back. Dems should make returning your money a centerpiece of the midterm message:
www.messageboxnews.com/p/trump-stol...

1 month ago 256 53 7 2
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The Supreme Court Just Made Trump's Biggest Problem Worse Tariffs aren't going anywhere.

The Supreme Court ruling on tariffs is a brutal rebuke to Trump and the MAGA agenda, but it also massively exacerbates his biggest political problem. www.messageboxnews.com/p/the-suprem...

2 months ago 124 20 8 0
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Trump's Dangerously Dumb Plan to Steal the Midterms The GOP are pushing a bill that would damage democracy and themselves.

Right now, Republicans are on the path to lose the House and maybe the Senate. Instead of trying to improve people’s lives, they are trying to steal the midterms.

Their plan is very dumb and very dangerous.

Here’s how Dems can fight back:

www.messageboxnews.com/p/trumps-dan...

2 months ago 117 26 3 2
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Why Dem's Can't Blink on ICE Funding Plus thoughts on the Texas primary, impeachment, and Chuck Schumer's future

Dems get a lot of shit for not fighting hard enough against Trump, but they have stood strong on ICE funding. They have the upper hand in this fight; they can win and absolutely cannot blink, no matter how long it goes
www.messageboxnews.com/p/should-dem...

2 months ago 198 31 5 1
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A Speech Every Democrat Should Watch Jon Ossoff lays out a message that can work for everyone in the party.

If you were online last weekend, you probably caught some clips from Jon Ossoff’s speech. It’s worth watching the whole thing because it’s an object lesson in how Democrats should communicate in the upcoming midterms. messagebox.substack.com/p/a-speech-e...

2 months ago 108 25 1 3
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Why Stephen Miller Will Cost Republicans the Midterms The cruelty, chaos, and incompetence of Miller's mass deportation dreams have mortally wounded Trump's political standing

Stephen Miller is Trump's most influential advisor. The masked ICE raids terrorizing American communities are his personal project.

Donald Trump is in a moment of political crisis, and Miller could cost the GOP the House and Senate.
messagebox.substack.com/p/why-stephe...

2 months ago 139 38 15 2
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The Real Reason Trump Went After Don Lemon and Georgia Fort The arrests are a shot across the now of the independent media

Something is getting lost in the discussion of Trump targeting Don Lemon and Georgia Fort. This is an attack on the independent media that is aggressively covering Trump.

Trump knows how to influence the corporate media; he fears the independent press. messagebox.substack.com/p/the-real-r...

2 months ago 148 43 1 1
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What Happened in Texas While You Were Sleeping—and Why It Matters Democrats just won a stunning victory in a very Republican county in Texas

While you were sleeping, Dems flipped a state senate seat in Texas by 14 points in a district Trump won by 17 points in 2024.

This is a political earthquake with massive implications for the midterms.
www.messageboxnews.com/p/what-happe...

2 months ago 481 123 16 9
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Great fucking work from Trump, RFK Jr and the rest

2 months ago 192 58 5 2
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How to Talk About Minnesota and ICE Some thoughts on discussing the issue dominating the discourse

If your experience is like mine, lots of people in your life who never talk about politics have started to pay attention in recent weeks because of what's happening in Minnesota.

Based on internal polling, here's the best way to persuade them

messagebox.substack.com/p/how-to-tal...

2 months ago 103 20 1 4
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This Is The Plan From one of the most successful Democratic strategists of the last decade, a revelatory account of what you&#8212;yes, <em>you</em>&#8212;can do to defeat Trumpism., This Is The Plan, How to End Ameri...

The country is on fire. We can save it together. This is the plan.

THIS IS THE PLAN: HOW TO END AMERICA’S MELTDOWN AND SAVE DEMOCRACY—my first book, published by W.W. Norton—hits shelves (and phones as an ebook and audiobook) on July 21. Preorder now! wwnorton.com/books/this-i...

2 months ago 339 89 25 15