The Entertainment score is based on:
• how tight the matchup is
• how much the result changes qualification probabilities (Top 8 / playoffs)
• the overall quality of the teams
📊 Now live on xStandings.com for all European competitions.
#ChampionsLeague
⚽🔥 Which Champions League matches are the most entertaining to watch today?
Top 3 today (Entertainment Score):
🥇 PSG vs Newcastle → 93.1
🥈 Napoli vs Chelsea → 75.1
🥉 Benfica vs Real Madrid → 66.6
⚽ UEFA Europa League
There are 10 teams still fighting to finish in the Top 8, but the picture is clearer than in the Champions League.
⚽ UEFA Champions League
12 teams still fighting to qualify directly for the Round of 16 .
For almost all of them, win or go to playoffs.
Only Real Madrid and Liverpool can afford not to win.
Our model also shows that if Manchester City wins their next match, their Top-8 probability jumps to ~73% meaning qualification still depends on other results around them
You can see how probabilities change for every possible outcome in the “Upcoming Matches” section xstandings.com/competition/11
With 8 teams tied on 13 points, the fight for the Champions League Top 8 is going to be heartbreaking.
Among them, Barcelona and Manchester City have the highest probability of qualifying directly for the Round of 16, according to our model xstandings.com/competition/11
- Arsenal win: 57.5%
- Draw: 24.4%
- Liverpool win: 18.2%
Is this finally the season for the Gunners? 🔴⚪
👉 Check this and more predictions at xstandings.com
#PremierLeague #GoGunners #Arsenal #TitleRace
After yesterday’s draw by Manchester City, Arsenal now hold an 80.1% chance of winning the Premier League title.
If they beat Liverpool today, Arsenal would go 8 points clear at the top and their title probability would jump to 84% 📈
Today’s match probabilities 👇
The 538 model actually lives on 🙂
I’ve been rebuilding it from scratch — same spirit, updated methods, live forecasts for all major leagues: xStandings.com
Check the details on how the model works at xstandings.com/how-it-works
Current Champions League probabilities to go directly to the Round of 16 (xStandings model):
Arsenal — 97%
Bayern Munich — 88%
Inter Milan — 84%
Real Madrid — 79%
PSG - 75%
Check them all at 👉 xStandings.com
Using Massey’s Method, I calculate each league’s relative power — expressed in goals.
Here are the top 5 🇪🇺 leagues right now:
England + 2.14
Italy + 1.80
Germany + 1.78
Spain + 1.71
France + 1.45
To answer that, I estimate league strengths using results from UEFA competitions over the past 3 seasons.
If teams from one country perform better than expected, that league’s rating goes up (and vice versa).
Most of the time, matches stay within one league.
But when Real Madrid face Bayern Munich or Liverpool play Milan, we need to know:
➡️ How strong is each league compared to the others?
🚨 UEFA Champions League & Europa League forecasts are now live on xStandings.com!
To make this possible, I had to teach the model how to compare leagues across Europe. Here’s how it works 🧵
⚽️ Context matters.
Early-season points mean different things depending on who you’ve faced.
Explore live simulations & predictions for upcoming matches → xstandings.com
#PremierLeague #xStandings #FootballData #SportsAnalytics
Takeaways:
🔹 Liverpool and West Ham faced brutal opening runs.
🔹 Sunderland and Aston Villa benefited from lighter schedules.
🔹Liverpool sit 2nd and Tottenham 3rd — but their paths couldn't have been more different.
📊 How tough has your team’s start to the season been? I used xStandings’ expected points model to measure the difficulty of each team’s opening 7 matches in the Premier League. The darker the red, the harder the fixture. 🧵
🔮 Fresh Premier League predictions are live!
📉 Manchester United are in trouble:
Only 11.3% to make the UCL
Just 1.2% to win the league
A worrying 11.2% chance of relegation
Full updated odds for every team
👉 xstandings.com/competition/1
#MUFC #PremierLeague #xStandings
6) Roma’s incredible second half of the season reshaped expectations for 2025–26.
Thanks to that turnaround (and 2 wins to start the new season), xStandings now gives Roma a 45.6% chance of qualifying for the UCL. 🐺
Explore Roma’s journey (and your team’s) here 👇
👉 xstandings.com
#sportsanalytics
5) Roma’s goal was clear: Champions League qualification.
But for most of the season, it looked out of reach.
A late winning streak in the season (Verona, Inter, Fiorentina) gave some hope to the fans
🔮 Our model predicted a 43% UCL chance if they beat Atalanta…
❌ They lost 2-1. Dream over.
4) Then came Claudio Ranieri.
Coming out of retirement, he led a miraculous second round of the season.
🟢 From 48.2 expected pts at his arrival…
🟢 To 69 expected pts by season end
🟢 Net overperformance: +20.8 pts (!)
Roma surged up the table under Ranieri.
3) Ivan Juric was appointed next.
A quick spark: wins vs Udinese (3-0) and Venezia (2-1) gave fans hope.
But it didn’t last. The team collapsed again.
❌ Sacked on November 10.
📉 Model shows a net underperformance of –3.3 pts during his tenure.
2) De Rossi signed a 3-year deal in the summer of 2024.
But after just 4 matches (1 loss, 3 draws), he was sacked.
📉 Pre-season model: 57.1 pts expected
📉 At his dismissal: 52.2 pts expected
🔻 Underperformance: –4.9 pts
Was it the right decision?
1) AS Roma’s season was pure chaos:
3 managers in <3 months
A stunning second half of the season
In fact, only Barcelona had a better 2025 across Europe’s top 5 leagues (I heard this fact but not 100% sure)
Here's what xStandings saw 👇
📈 Expected Points Evolution
🧠 Manager performance
Let's see the model in action 🔍
A thread on AS Roma’s rollercoaster 24/25 season ⬇️