Ohh now it makes sense why people are foretelling that ASML will bring destruction unto the world.

Yup, these are the lyrics I have in my head!

Will the next GPT correctly tell me the least integer whose square is between 15 and 30? 50% chance. I will ask the next iteration of ChatGPT the following question: "What is the least integer whose square is between 15 and 30?". Will it answer -5 on the first try? Some clarifications: ...

Cool, thanks. That's slightly less prodding than other models need.

Related market: manifold.markets/EricNeyman/w...

What is the least integer whose square is between 15 and 30?

(Correct answer: -5.)

Do dawning and morning rhyme for you? :o

I love today's xkcd. One of my favorites!

Note that Nate Silver and I are talking about different things! Nate is saying that Harris was a mediocre *candidate* whereas I'm saying Harris ran a good *campaign*. These can both be true (and I agree with Nate!)

Seven lessons I didn’t learn from election day I spent most of my election day — 3pm to 11pm Pacific time — trading on Manifold Markets. That went about as well as it could have gone. I doubled the money I was trading with, jumping …

Seven lessons I didn’t learn from election day - good post on why we should be skeptical about many claims about the results and what they mean for American politics ericneyman.wordpress.com/2024/11/14/s...