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Posts by Avital Livny

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1 week ago 2098 262 45 3
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‘Everything is gone’: Israel destroys entire villages in Lebanon Rights groups fear tactic of ‘domicide’ trialled in Gaza, where entire areas are made uninhabitable, is being used again

www.theguardian.com/world/2026/a...

1 week ago 12 11 0 0

Really like this paper @sophieehill.bsky.social! As @benyoel.bsky.social shared, Stephen, Brian, and I have a paper that is similar but about mediators specifically. We suggest randomizing order when possible:

bsky.app/profile/beny...

1 week ago 4 0 0 0
Survey Design, Order Effects, and Causal Mediation Analysis | The Journal of Politics: Vol 83, No 4 Causal mediation analysis requires measurement of an outcome variable (O) with and without treatment, plus a set of mediator variables (M) that constitute possible pathways for the treatment effect. There is no consensus on whether surveys should measure potentially mediating variables before or after the outcome variables—MO or OM. We use a replication exercise to demonstrate how the order of mediator and outcome items can be consequential for the results from causal mediation analysis. Order can affect mediation conclusions, even if the treatment effect is similar across designs. As such, randomizing order is usually prudent, although best practice depends on the researcher’s contextual knowledge about her particular application.

Chaudoin and @avitallivny.bsky.social (2021) have a nice piece on this. Their conclusion seems to be that randomizing where possible should be the way to go. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10....

1 week ago 8 3 0 1
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My Only Prayer We sat shiva when my mom died.

I don't know how to speak about being Jewish right now. michaelianblack.substack.com/p/my-only-pr...

1 month ago 971 183 48 38

Correct.

We must fight antisemitism. And we cannot fight it by restricting free speech.

Listen to @aclu.org, @splcenter.org @truahrabbis.bsky.social @ncjw.bsky.social, and Hannah Rosenthal — former CEO of Milwaukee Jewish Federations, Jewish Council for Public Affairs, & US envoy on antisemitism.

1 month ago 5 2 1 1

The biggest risk in this moment is something sociologists call “symbolic compliance.”

That’s when an institution that is violating civil rights gives the public just enough symbolic victories that accountability efforts lose steam before there has been any meaningful change.

2 months ago 20798 8601 265 710
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Reminder that, as of the latest reports, Liam Ramos is still in prison in Texas - now for 5 days.

His parents are legal asylum seekers with no criminal record.

2 months ago 24583 11060 684 574

The world seems so dreary, but this is such a bright spot.

Ethiopian food has been #1 on my “please bring to Champaign-Urbana” since moving here. And now to learn that alllll their injera will be 100% teff? It’s enough to melt this celiac girl’s heart!

3 months ago 1 0 1 0
Screenshot of a data visualization titled “The Cost of American Exceptionalism,” subtitled “What would change if the U.S. matched the OECD average?” The page explains that each card shows how outcomes would change if the U.S. matched the average of 31 peer democracies. Below, a section labeled “Economy & Inequality” displays eight cards comparing U.S. figures to OECD averages. Highlights include: +$19K per household per year in redistributed income and +$96K in redistributed wealth if the top 1% matched OECD shares; a 71% lower CEO-to-worker pay ratio (from 354× to 101×); 50 million more workers with union coverage; 26 million more people with health insurance; $2.1 trillion saved annually in healthcare spending; $691 less per person per year in prescription drug costs; and intergenerational economic mobility being twice as high. Each card shows the U.S. value alongside the OECD average.

Screenshot of a data visualization titled “The Cost of American Exceptionalism,” subtitled “What would change if the U.S. matched the OECD average?” The page explains that each card shows how outcomes would change if the U.S. matched the average of 31 peer democracies. Below, a section labeled “Economy & Inequality” displays eight cards comparing U.S. figures to OECD averages. Highlights include: +$19K per household per year in redistributed income and +$96K in redistributed wealth if the top 1% matched OECD shares; a 71% lower CEO-to-worker pay ratio (from 354× to 101×); 50 million more workers with union coverage; 26 million more people with health insurance; $2.1 trillion saved annually in healthcare spending; $691 less per person per year in prescription drug costs; and intergenerational economic mobility being twice as high. Each card shows the U.S. value alongside the OECD average.

If there's one empirical insight I'd want everyone to understand about American politics, it's this:

America's problems are solved problems. Just not here.

What would change if the US simply matched the average of 31 peer democracies? Not Denmark or Norway. Just the middle of the pack. 🧵

3 months ago 5321 2361 66 224

Honestly I feel sorry for the authors who are the ones who really benefit from having the same reviewer take a second look at the revision.

Editors: please do better! And I say this as someone who doesn’t even celebrate Xmas!

3 months ago 4 0 0 0

Academic journals are so ridiculous.

- Request to re-review an R&R arrives in my inbox on Monday Dec 22
- Reminder to respond delivered (by Santa?) on Dec 25
- Today — Sunday Dec 28 — an email saying my services are no longer needed.

3 months ago 4 0 1 0

Just a reminder that at least 600 Americans were fired for failing to show sufficient respect after Charlie Kirk's murder.

4 months ago 13461 3995 162 86

The “canceled people” database listing victims of cancel culture, which includes oft-repeated cases such as Bret Weinstein (Evergreen State College) and James Damore (Google), has a little over 200 entries across 18 years.

canceledpeople.org

5 months ago 1735 569 24 17
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ASREC Graduate Student Workshop
19-21 March 2026
Orange CA

Join me, @avitallivny.bsky.social, Dan Hungerman, and Jonathan Schulz for one day of lectures overviewing the field followed by attending the ASREC conference

Deadline: 14 November

Apply here: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

5 months ago 5 2 0 0
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Opinion | What Happened in Gaza Might Be Even Worse Than We Think

"A 2,000-household survey in Gaza... suggested that the official figures were likely to be undercounting the number of people killed in the war by roughly 39 percent... The majority of those killed — some 56 percent — were women, children and the elderly." www.nytimes.com/2025/10/23/o...

5 months ago 52 35 1 4

Having reviewed ~250 applications, I'm writing to share that fly-out candidates for the UIUC Behavior search were contacted yesterday.

Thank you to those who applied and/or supported someone who did. This was a large, exceptionally talented pool -- we wish we had more than one job to offer!

6 months ago 3 1 1 0
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Having reviewed ~250 applications, I'm writing to share that fly-out candidates for the UIUC Behavior search were contacted yesterday.

Thank you to those who applied and/or supported someone who did. This was a large, exceptionally talented pool -- we wish we had more than one job to offer!

6 months ago 3 1 1 0
“ADL deletes Glossary of Extremism under pressure from conservatives over Charlie Kirk entry
The organization stands by a separate resource that describes Kirk’s Turning Point USA’s ties to ‘extremists’”

“ADL deletes Glossary of Extremism under pressure from conservatives over Charlie Kirk entry The organization stands by a separate resource that describes Kirk’s Turning Point USA’s ties to ‘extremists’”

This is the main reason the ADL originally existed, and now they’re giving it up entirely because it made some right-wingers upset. They are no longer pretending to be anything other than a pro-Israel advocacy group. And they are prioritizing Israelis above American Jews.

6 months ago 410 136 9 11

The free speech activist who built a list of professors he worked to get fired for their speech must be celebrated for his support of free speech, and anyone who quotes his speech accurately in context will be fired and/or face state punishment by the champions of free speech, do I have that right?

7 months ago 28750 8649 582 357

It should be needless to say, but it is perhaps at this moment worth saying, that transgender individuals have the same right as anyone else to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.

7 months ago 28729 6108 655 516

Charlie Kirk was a person. He might not have cared if I died, but if I don’t care that he died then I’ve already lost.

I believe in the dignity of all human beings and I want to live in a society that treats each of us as sacred and ensouled.

7 months ago 2503 306 195 37

The MSNBC commentator saying that most political violence has historically come from the left just once again showed how we suffer from failing to learn history. Lynching, pogroms, race riots, the political violence that ended Reconstruction, and against the Civil Rights Movement. Come on.

7 months ago 41401 10267 1406 625
Screenshot of Elon Musk tweet from shortly after Charlie Kirk was shot. Elon says "The Left is the party of murder" and is quote tweeting a post from Shaun Maguire that reads:

The Left lectured us for the last decade about the dangers of violence from the Right

From the assassination attempts of President Trump

To Brian Thompson, the United Healthcare CEO, being murdered

Now to Charlie Kirk

The danger was actually on the Left

Screenshot of Elon Musk tweet from shortly after Charlie Kirk was shot. Elon says "The Left is the party of murder" and is quote tweeting a post from Shaun Maguire that reads: The Left lectured us for the last decade about the dangers of violence from the Right From the assassination attempts of President Trump To Brian Thompson, the United Healthcare CEO, being murdered Now to Charlie Kirk The danger was actually on the Left

I'll merely note that today, like all days, is a great day to stop posting on Twitter, a platform whose owner force feeds this slop into people's brains with an algorithm designed to boost his views and trample yours.

7 months ago 4781 1126 67 50

Political violence is bad. It usually begets more political violence.

Celebrating political violence is bad. It usually encourages more political violence, against various targets.

Campus shootings are bad. They make everyone on campus less safe.

It's bad that what I wrote here is controversial.

7 months ago 9112 1737 502 134

Just over one week to go before the September 16 deadline.

Excited to review the applications and engage with folks’ work!

7 months ago 2 1 0 0
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The President of the United States is threatening to go to war with an American city.

This is not a joke. This is not normal.

Donald Trump isn't a strongman, he's a scared man. Illinois won’t be intimidated by a wannabe dictator.

7 months ago 35821 11003 2042 1258
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If you hear about a Mexican Independence Day celebration in your area, go.

There is strength in numbers and — especially if you’re white — you can protect your community just by being there and not flinching if ICE shows up.

These goons are cowards. Don’t be one.

7 months ago 2712 808 33 13