I also am not currently attacking Iran

Market ignored this tbh

this from the Economist seems like the simplest tracker of what's going on with energy markets

so long as there are inventories you can use what exists and plan on heightened pricing for a long time once the strait reopens rather than demand destruction pricing right now

Jet fuel goes first

I think @domw.bsky.social's reply nailed it.

Means either the economic hit from demand destruction is going to be worse than expected or the scramble for barrels when it starts will make what's going on now look calm.

At this point I no longer care about the President's ongoing spiral into complete insanity. I get nothing out of reading any of this

Secretary of the Navy John C. Phelan is out. He’s not a woman, Black, or LGBT, so that’s not the reason this time.

Frustrated with failing/lacking Iran strategy?
Told to do war crimes and said no?
Defended a Black or female officer’s promotion?

The White House’s behavior invites this speculation.

Don't schedule posts!

3D printers are so cool, CNC machines are equal parts cooler and more expensive. Overkill for nearly everyone, even the hobby ones.

I'm currently waiting for a friend to take the 4 ton CNC mill I don't have time to use anymore out of my garage, so I may be biased.

--SOURCE

Uhhhh ok

Still mulling this over and I think normal traffic gives major price relief, probably sustained in WTI but tbd for Brent, depends how quickly things happen in the Gulf and tanker positioning (which could be better or worse than today, and I don't have a good handle on what's waiting to go in).

Also I think there's some underrating of the effects that expecting flow to come back in even a month or so is having on current demand. Probably poor risk management for most of the buyers who should be more desperate.

I don't think there's additional China supply, because we'd see it showing up in products and we're not.

I do think we're seeing demand destruction ramping faster than expected because supply disruptions are so localized.

Where have I heard this before?

The number of Republicans crashing out about getting nakedly gerrymandered is, unironically, a sign that we need to do more of it. You guys are correct! This shit sucks! Welcome to the party, pals! We can all stop doing it any time you like!

unpopular opinion guy

i think it is actually totally fine if urban areas with their higher density populations and higher levels of education have a proportionally greater say in national politics than less-dense and less-educated rural areas

I love that every 72 hours or so Donald Trump tries to just quit the war in Iran

at this point last year the republican party was the most punch-drunk movement in modern times, untethered from political reality, smashing everything in site. that's the environment in which Texas redistricting came to be. now it's a hungover mess blaming everyone else for its problems.

Their strategy is "just wait...we can hold out longer than they can." And they are likely correct.

I've never felt this stressed from positioning and trading well before. This situation is so exhausting, way more so than any of the tariffs or COVID trading I can think of.

So far today I've been long oil, short oil, flat oil, convex long-short oil -- but I haven't been no oil yet. I hope the day is sooner rather than later...

WTI futures later in the day on April 21, 2026

OK but is this a joke?

Did they do it before market close on purpose? It'll certainly be interesting to see what happens after hours (and overnight in oil futures) tonight...

WTI futures swinging up and down over the course of April 21, 2026.

Guys, this isn't funny. Markets only do this when they're in extreme distress.

I'm honestly surprised that someone didn't do it to get rid of lightering costs, but maybe I'm overestimating them or underestimating pipeline cost.

the thing that gnaws is - we dont have to live this way

every single day trump injecting himself to be the main character is so tiring

Don't we literally have a spot for 1 VLCC or something insane like that?

I don't think it's more complicated than Pakistan matching US messaging in hopes that they can get some LPG and oil. Anything to keep their economy from imploding at this point, they're probably past the wire and will be temporarily fucked at best.

I resorted to looking up builds, it's just not fun to understand the system tbh.

This was from my thread 2 weeks ago during the horrifying "civilization will die" waiting game. I'm maybe a smidge less terrified because Trump so desperately wants a deal (and Iran does too though they still have the leverage). But the choices are still humiliation or escalation.

It’s not as if there’s any historical examples of armies being severely weakened by outbreaks of infectious diseases.

Oh no sure,

Absolutely none…