“Discussions within the administration over the past month have touched upon the possible seizure of Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export hub in the Persian Gulf, and raids into other coastal areas near the Strait of Hormuz to find and destroy weapons”.
“Damascus’s counterterrorism approach treats co-optation as the core mechanism of containment, folding extremist factions into state structures to secure manpower and control while pursuing the Islamic State operationally through cooperation with the global coalition.”
“When the Americans come—and they come to us like bees to honey—they ask, ‘Which drone is best?’ I tell them the best #drone is an ecosystem. For one pilot to make a kill, a whole machine must work behind him.”
«La thèse qui supposait que le #Golfe était un environnement d'exploitation stable pour de l'infrastructure numérique long terme a volé en éclat. C'est une décennie de confiance qui est mise à mal.»
«Si nous devons affronter une division russe en défense d’un pays balte, par exemple, nous nous retrouverons face à un adversaire transformé en complexe de reconnaissance-frappes, simplement plus mobile qu’en #Ukraine car il ne sera pas face à la même densité de feux.»
“The temptation to go beyond defeating #Hezbollah to redrawing Lebanon’s political system and social map completely appears to be luring Israeli decision-makers.”
“It looks increasingly likely that Ukraine’s interceptor capabilities could complement the existing air defense capabilities if implemented well, with a joint command post coordinating engagements based on available radar data.”
«Au bilan, par un mélange de précipitation, de sous-estimation de l’ennemi et de peur du risque, les Américains ont mis en place le dispositif le plus léger de leurs trois guerres du Golfe et le moins diversifié.» #Iran
“Macron’s doctrine of #nuclear use is persuasive, and France’s capacity to execute it carries conviction. But how to ensure adequate confidence in the French commitment to actually fire that warning shot when the crisis comes?”
“Iran is still believed to have some 1500 ballistic missiles left and more than 100 missile launchers. […] That suggests the current US/Israeli war to degrade Iran’s military power ‘will continue for at least two or three weeks, if not more than that’ to try to target those.”
“Unlike during the June 2025 war, all GCC states have experienced airspace closures simultaneously, shutting down tourism during Ramadan season, and inflicting expected losses of $40 billion.”
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«Quand on pense ralliement en #Iran, on pense surtout aux forces armées régulières, car c’est le plus souvent comme cela, des Gardes françaises en juillet 1789 à Paris aux régiments de la Garde à Petrograd en février 1917, que les révolutions s’imposent.»
“To succeed, Trump will have to manage the competing views and priorities of his own administration’s staffers. But an unsentimental assessment of the regional landscape offers some sense of how Trump could proceed. He might start, as he did in his first term, in the Gulf.” #Iran
«Le socialisme moral est une vision d’alternative pour un monde globalisé où se manifestent les limites soit du capitalisme, soit de l’État-nation. Il s’agit d’inscrire cette perspective […] dans un contexte cosmopolite et de paix, où il importe de produire un effort pour changer les institutions.»
“With its major rival crippled, the US might disengage even further as a regional security guarantor, leaving the Arab Gulf states to deal with an emboldened Israel on their own.”
“But to regain that role, Europeans must drop their present reluctance to stand up and be counted as promoters of a more traditional diplomatic action.“
“With the United States in search of a strategy, Arab Gulf countries desperately in need of regional security, and Iran probably on the verge of a lasting domestic political crisis, Europe could provide useful guidance and concrete propositions for a renewed dialogue with Iranian leadership.”
“Yet escalation proceeded, driven heavily by 🇮🇱 priorities and 🇺🇸 calculations that did not appreciatively internalize Gulf risk exposure. The message to Gulf leaders is unsettling: The 🇺🇸 security umbrella remains powerful, but it can be overridden by other interests that are not their own.”
“They can hardly believe U.S. impotence at protecting oil installations and shipping, and the United States’ inability or unwillingness to rapidly refresh their dwindling stocks of interceptors. There is a profound sense that U.S. military bases have become a source of threat rather than security.”
Moscou a des raisons de se réjouir. Jeudi, le département du Trésor américain a autorisé l’Inde à acheter du pétrole russe pendant trente jours. Les importateurs indiens se tournent à nouveau vers la Russie, leur ancien fournisseur.
“As a result, the administration seems willing to risk far more with less planning than previous administrations. Given the level of savagery they were willing to countenance in pursuit of their interests, we should expect Trump and his war party to go even further.”
“Trump said that any #IRGC officials who lay down their arms will be offered ‘immunity,’ hinting that overtures have already been made by U.S. intelligence to that effect. ‘Immunity’ could also be a byword for compensation in the form of sanctions relief or direct payment.”
“The upshot is that the Russian military can’t expand at the current pace of offensive operations. Individual Russian units will increasingly suffer from lower manning rates and internal imbalances as it becomes more difficult to replace combat losses.”
“It is intriguing that a German chancellor contemplates seeking shelter under France’s nuclear deterrent while simultaneously distancing himself from #FCAS, a project partly intended to secure the future of France’s force de frappe.”
“None of these transfers will radically alter Iran’s ability to match the capabilities of the most advanced conventional military in the world but it can prolong the next war”.
«L’enjeu technique est donc majeur. Il a des implications et des coûts associés qui seront élevés, voire intolérables.»
«Il ne suffit pas de posséder un arsenal nucléaire et de le moderniser : il faut aussi disposer d’une force de frappe conventionnelle puissante et, surtout, d’une force de combat rapproché dont l’emploi fasse plus peur à l’ennemi potentiel qu’à la société française.»
“More critically, there is no guarantee that Europeans will be able to buy American weapons for Ukraine in the future. Worse, what if Washington prohibits European states from using American weapons against Russia in the event of a direct European military confrontation with Moscow?”
