The Economy is Terrible. Why Aren't More People Stealing Stuff? Consumer sentiment continues to decline, and yet, so does the crime rate

open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...

No, the Homicide Rate is Not at a 125 Year Low tl;dr: Homicide/murder rates are falling and nearing historical lows, but have not declined quite as much as you have been lead to believe.

When a story sounds too good to be true, you should always check…

Mississippi's Missing Murders Or: When imputing data goes wrong.

The FBI is missing more than half of Mississippi’s murders.

open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...

Is Violent Crime an 'Urban' Problem? Violence has long been a disproportionately “big city” problem in the United States; prepare for a future where this is no longer the case

Is Violent Crime an 'Urban' Problem?
open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...

Everyone is Wrong about the Crime Decline As people strain their arms to pat themselves on the back, no one really seems to fully comprehend the reasons for the crime decline

It’s easier to claim credit for the crime decline when you obscure its causes. open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...

The 2026 Murder Forecast Preliminary data suggests 2025 will set historic lows; this trend will continue in 2026

Will the murder decline continue?

The mass shooting in Leland, Mississippi was an unpredictable tragedy. Well, sort of.

Explaining the Crime Decline The definitive and authoritative account

@jamellebouie.net With crime trends becoming relevant again, I wanted to direct you to an explanation of the causes of the decline, partially based on my book on the spike in murders (NYU Press). open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...

The Exaggerated Lead/Crime Hypothesis Some impact? Probably. But not enough to write home (or a book) about

@majorityreport.bsky.social
Can someone get this in front of Sam? The lead and crime hypothesis is not the best explanation of crime trends: open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...

The Exaggerated Lead/Crime Hypothesis Some impact? Probably. But not enough to write home (or a book) about

The '90s called and wants its explanation of the crime decline back:
open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...

Explaining the Crime Decline The definitive and authoritative account

I’m trying! open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...

The Smartphone-Induced Crime Decline Gen Z made crime rates 'crash out'

Which generation committed crime at the higest rate?
(Hint: it is not Gen Z)

open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...

An Update from Murder Valley Yep, still violent

When will the homicide decline come to Murder Valley?
open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...

James Tuttle (@crimeforecast) The impact of the Smartphone was not all bad…

The Smartphone was not all bad...

Explaining the Crime Decline The definitive and authoritative account

For everyone who says "no one really knows why crime rates are declining..."

Explaining Seattle's Homicide Trends The political narratives were wrong, but does it matter?

Seattle is the poster child for "woke" polices and out of control rates of violent crime. Or is it?

Anyone else getting a ton of ads from the FBI? I wonder if they are having trouble recruiting…

The Victims of the Homicide Epidemic The Chapter of 'Crime Wave' I Never Wrote

Over the past decade, more than 200,000 people have been murdered in the United States.

James Tuttle on Substack The rise and fall of a homicide epidemic.

My guess is that you are finished writing about the issue, but here is my article and book about homicide patterns over the past decade for your consideration. The homicide rate has followed the trends in alcohol, drugs, and guns.

substack.com/@crimeforeca...

nyupress.org/978147983116...

Before and After the 2020 Homicide Spike In 2020, the homicide rate spiked by its largest margin in recorded history.

For an explanation, look no further than the trends in drugs, guns, and alcohol consumption.

open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...

Crime Wave Why homicides have increasedThe homicide rate in the United States increased by approximately 55 percent from 2014 to 2021. An initial spike in homicide rate...

The real reason homicide is declining? A precipitous decline in drug sales, alcohol consumption, and firearm sales. If people want to take a deep dive, you can read more here: nyupress.org/978147983116...

Expert questions city's strategy, cites drug and gun trends as key to homicide decrease BALTIMORE — As Baltimore experiences a significant decline in homicides, city officials are attributing the decrease to their crime-fighting strategies. Mayor B

Although, to be honest, I don’t think either party should really get credit (or blame) for the recent homicide trends. Here was my interview with a Baltimore reporter on the matter: foxbaltimore.com/news/city-in...

James Tuttle on Substack Reducing the murder rate is hard. Taking credit is easy.

You might enjoy my recent article on how this tendency to give the party in power “credit” for crime reductions will likely play out in the 2026 midterms: substack.com/@crimeforeca...

Future Files: A 2026 Midterm Election Prediction (of sorts) The Politics of the Homicide Decline

Causing the homicide rate to decline is hard. Taking credit is easy.
open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...

Expert questions city's strategy, cites drug and gun trends as key to homicide decrease BALTIMORE — As Baltimore experiences a significant decline in homicides, city officials are attributing the decrease to their crime-fighting strategies. Mayor B

It’s me. Hi. I’m the expert, it’s me.

How American Decline Caused a Crime Wave America is in decline.

America is in decline.
crimeforecast.substack.com/p/how-americ...

Before and After the 2020 Homicide Spike In 2020, the homicide rate spiked by its largest margin in recorded history.

The rise and fall of the homicide epidemic.

open.substack.com/pub/crimefor...

Preorder your own copy nyupress.org/978147983116...

Rising Inflation and Crime Did spiking rates of inflation contribute to a crime wave?

Did rising inflation contribute to a crime wave?