The paper is led by Prof Ron Borland, one of Australia's most distinguished tobacco control researchers with 30+ years at a state Cancer Council, with a multidisciplinary team including researchers who have advised the WHO on drug policy.
If these policies cannot be made to work in a low-corruption, high-enforcement country like Australia, the case for persisting with them elsewhere looks increasingly difficult to sustain.
More enforcement is not the answer. Australia's own experience with other drug markets shows that intensified policing of large, entrenched illicit markets yields sharply diminishing returns. The nicotine market, with millions of regular users, will likely be no different.
There is also evidence that cheap illicit tobacco may be driving the first sustained rise in national smoking prevalence since the 1990s. Policy intended to reduce smoking may now be increasing it.
The consequences go beyond lost tax revenue. Over 280 arson attacks on retailers since 2023. Homicide, kidnapping, extortion. Illicit profits financing sex trafficking and weapons smuggling. And AUD$340 million in additional enforcement funding that has not reversed the trend.
More than half of all tobacco and over 95% of vapes sold in Australia are now illicit. The black market is worth AUD$7 billion a year, around 40% of Australia's entire illicit drug economy, more than cannabis, cocaine, heroin and ecstasy combined.
🚨 New paper alert: 'Has Australia lost control of its tobacco and nicotine markets?'
Short answer - yes, and largely by following two WHO endorsed policies: very high tobacco taxes and a ban on vapes and other less harmful nicotine products
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
3 senior exWHO researchers (R Beaglehole, R Bonita, T Pang), Nature Health 2026, “Increased use of smoke-free nicotine products such as vapes could help to achieve an ambitious global goal of reducing smoking prevalence below 5% by 2040”
doi.org/10.1038/s443...
@publichealthaus.bsky.social
Startling and not well received by international colleagues.
“This narrative review is problematic for several reasons and makes extraordinary claims that are not borne out by the data."
www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-react...
Safe to say that international researchers are not impressed with the quality of this study.
“This narrative review is problematic for several reasons and makes extraordinary claims that are not borne out by the data."
www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-react...
Safe to say that international researchers are not impressed with the quality of this study.
“This narrative review is problematic for several reasons and makes extraordinary claims that are not borne out by the data."
www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-react...
Interesting that it seems to be the Australian reviews that come up with these findings and not those that are conducted overseas.
www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-react...
Is the government's enforcement-led approach going to win the tobacco wars? Not likely.
Check out the latest conversation with the excellent team at 7am to find out why.🔥🔥👇
7ampodcast.com.au/episodes/sho...
1/3 International Monetary Fund:
Price the harm
“But policymakers need to think more broadly about how to change unhealthy behavior.Ideally, the level of taxation should reflect the degree of harm a product is likely to cause while still safeguarding overall revenue. ..”
@algore09algor.bsky.social
Interesting to see this new study on taxation and harm from the IMF.
The authors note Australia's "misaligned" approach to tobacco taxation.
They also point to the success of New Zealand's approach, noting the (much) less harmful effects of vaping 👇
www.imf.org/en/publicati...
Do you smoke illicit tobacco in Australia?
Want to share your views on the tobacco black market?
Join us for a confidential interview.
See info sheet below and email me at james.m@deakin.edu.au for further info.
Check out the latest from @edjegasothy.bsky.social and me about Australia's historical experience with prohibition, and what lessons we can learn about it's impact on illicit markets and organised crime.
theconversation.com/prohibitive-...
‘ … Reducing excise rates would shift consumption away from illicit products.'
Review of Australia’s illicit tobacco market
apo.org.au/node/333573
Do you smoke illicit tobacco in Australia?
Want to share your views on the tobacco black market?
Join us for a confidential interview.
See info sheet below and email me at james.m@deakin.edu.au for further info.
Do you smoke illicit tobacco in Australia?
Want to share your views on the tobacco black market?
Join us for a confidential interview.
See info sheet below and email me at james.m@deakin.edu.au for further info.
Great substack Alan 👍
@alexwodak.bsky.social @squigglyrick.bsky.social @melissasweetdr.bsky.social
open.substack.com/pub/09algor/...
People in Germany & Sweden consume similar quantities nicotine. But Germany mainly by smoking cigarettes while Sweden mainly by safer smoke-free nicotine policies. Germany has higher rates of cancer. Which country’s policy do you prefer? @algore09algor.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social
After 4 major political parties New Zealand supported regulate low-risk vaping ensure more available than deadly cigarettes, decline smoking accelerated, no vape black market @algore09algor.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @jmenezes.bsky.social
filtermag.org/new-zealand-...
New paper out co-authored with Jennifer Schumann, on the recent emergence of nitazenes in Australia's illicit THC vape supply.
We discuss the regulatory context, implications, and the dangers of conflating adulteration of THC and nicotine vape supply.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
“Hamad is a symptom of our policy decisions. The conditions that created the illicit market are still in place.”
satpa.pe/tlhW0N6
Long before he became “one of the world’s most dangerous wanted men”, as a suspected broker of Iranian terrorism and alleged orchestrator of Australia’s murderous tobacco wars, Kazem Hamad was just a troubled young man on a psych’s couch…
satpa.pe/7tLOsWS
