By-elections: Conservative crash, some NDP rebound, LPC wins it all BQ-Liberal polarization tightens in Terrebonne, but Conservative collapse depolarizes Toronto races, helping the NDP.

BQ-Liberal polarization in Terrebonne squeezes Conservatives and NDP

Low Conservative support de-polarizes Toronto ridings, lets NDP rebound

Here’s the hard data analysis on Monday’s three by-elections:

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Ontario lost 5,800 more jobs in March as losses shift to service sector Shocks and cuts to schools, colleges and universities have reduced education sector employment by nearly 10 per cent.

Another month of jobs losses in Ontario

But this time jobs in manufacturing and construction were only slightly down

The jobs carnage shifted to workers in schools and stores

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Less time at bars and restaurants: a cause or symptom of Canadian unhappiness? Statistics Canada data shows a decline in bar sales and a hike in fast-food purchases.

Sales at Canadian bars are down, starting when cannabis was legalized. Sales at table-service restaurants are down since the inflation wave of 2022.

Are we losing public socializing spaces? And is this connected to the loneliness and unhappiness Canadians report?

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Tom Parkin (@tparkin) UCP’s $10B deficit, driven by 41% drop in expected royalties, hits Albertans even as oil companies pump record levels of crude

UCP’s $10B deficit, driven by 41% drop in expected royalties, hits Albertans even as oil companies pump record levels of crude

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Danielle Smith's excuse for cuts is lies built on lies Increasingly radical UCP blames immigrants and Ottawa for their own failures.

Danielle Smith is using outright lies to blame UCP cuts on immigrants and Ottawa

Her increasingly radical UCP will echo them to further their separatist and racist agenda — and distract people from UCP wasting the Alberta advantage.

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As transit recovery stumbles, Carney budget cut support $5B, FCM learns For second time the Carney Liberals caught playing shell games to cover cuts.

The “predictable, long-term” $30B Transit Fund was announced in 2024.

But in Carney’s first budget it disappeared. Turns out it was merged into another fund, cut by $5B, renamed and promoted as a new “generational investment”

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Ontario universities still most expensive despite PCs' cut and cap Skyrocketing average tuition under the Ontario Liberals helped Ford PCs win in 2018.

Ontario still has the highest tuition fees, despite a multi-year freeze, which the Ford PCs ended last week

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Sponsorship aftermath: political waves

Scandal broke traditional Quebec voting, creating conditions for political waves — Layton’s NDP in 2011, Legault’s CAQ in 2018

Full interview on YouTube and podcast

Facing obliteration, Quebec's Legault quits YouTube video by Left East to West

The rise and crushing fall of François Legault, with political analyst Karl Bélanger

And, Nikki and Tom discuss Danielle Smith’s help for Jeff Rath’s separation referendum and the backlash on Jimmy Pattinson on news of a deal with Trump’s ICE

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Canada’s Defence and Trump

Left East to West — watch on YouTube or listen wherever you get podcasts

Canada's defence in the Trump era -- with guest David Pugliese YouTube video by Left East to West

This week: Canada’s defence in the Trump era

Feature interview with David Pugliese award-winning defence reporter and author

Left East to West is your weekly check-in across Canada and interviews for people who build this country

On YouTube and everywhere you get podcasts
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I guess I should not have been surprised at how really good this podcast is. In a busy field of commentary, Tom and Niki stand out. The analysis you won't get anywhere else.

CNL? The small nuclear nuclear reactors?

Thanks — please share to help others find us!

Canada’s defence in the Trump era

Releasing Monday, our Canada check-in and feature interview with defence reporter and author David Pugliese

Find Left East to West on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts

Introducing ... Left East to West A podcast with Nikki Hill and me, a check-in across the country and interviews for people building Canada.

Introducing Left East to West podcast. Subscribe for your weekly check-in across Canada and interviews for people building this country

Launches Monday on YouTube and all the places you find podcasts

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Carney-China deal another blow to value-adding jobs Trading canola for cars is a deal for a dependant colony not an advanced economy.

Trading canola for cars further weakens manufacturing, which has been left to wither for years

Unless we want all the stuff we buy to be made in USA or China, provinces need value-adding plans and Ottawa needs to back them

But Ontario has no plan

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Love Tom Parkin @tomparkin.bsky.social and the fearless dive he does into the numbers. I'm finishing my contract in Ontario and headed home to BC because the work has dried up. I'll miss my patients, families and colleagues. 💔

Traffic deaths down 46% as Toronto makes road safety changes At 21 of the 42 deaths, 2025 had the fewest people killed while pedestrians since 2011.

Toronto’s road safety changes are paying off

Traffic fatalities fell to the lowest level in 14 years in 2025, except 2020 COVID, led by a big drop pedestrian deaths, down more than half

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1988: deal reached after US Coast Guard trip through Canada's Arctic stirs controversy The United States has never recognized Canada's Arctic sovereignty. History shows it takes a long time to build the capacity to project sovereignty, much less to infringe on it.

In 1985, US Coast Guard Ship Polar Sea travelled from Greenland to Alaska through Canada’s Arctic without requesting Canadian permission

Canadians were stunned. But it led to a treaty in 1988. Will Trump respect it?

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Ontario jobless hits 7.9% despite Doug Ford pouring out some Crown Royal Canadian solidarity against Trump undermined as Ontario Premier attacks Manitoba jobs in exchange for a TV stunt that won't save a single Ontario job.

Doug Ford’s idea of protecting jobs is pouring out a bottle of whisky made by Canadian workers using Canadian-grown ingredients

This explains why Ontario has the second worst unemployment rate in Canada

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1988: deal reached after US Coast Guard trip through Canada's Arctic stirs controversy The United States has never recognized Canada's Arctic sovereignty. History shows it takes a long time to build the capacity to project sovereignty, much less to infringe on it.

In 1988 the U.S. agreed it would seek permission to transit Canada’s Arctic after the USCG Polar Sea crossed without any request in 1985, raising a storm

Will that 1988 deal hold as Trump threatens Canada and Denmark’s Greenland?

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1988: deal reached after US Coast Guard trip through Canada's Arctic stirs controversy The United States has never recognized Canada's Arctic sovereignty. History shows it takes a long time to build the capacity to project sovereignty, much less to infringe on it.

In 1988 the U.S. agreed it would seek permission to transit Canada’s Arctic after the USCG Polar Sea crossed without any request in 1985, raising a storm

Will that 1988 deal hold as Trump threatens Canada and Denmark’s Greenland?

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Good work, everyone: Toronto was safer in 2025 as crime dropped in almost all categories Torontians were freer from muggings, swarmings, homes invasion, auto theft and many other crimes in 2025. The city's murder rate hasn't been lower in at least 20 years.

Toronto was a safer city last year. Muggings, break-ins, murder, car thefts — all down, some by LOT!

It’s something to celebrate — and maybe that civic pride gives a better chance of continued improvement in 2026!

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Good news: drug deaths continue decline for sixth consecutive quarter Are interventions working? Is use declining? Or are the drugs less lethal?

Lives lost to opioids and stimulants have fallen for a sixth consecutive quarter up to June 30

Drug deaths are now down 44% from the crisis peak

Still, nearly 2,000 died between April 1 and June 30, about 22 people a day

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December polls: major parties down, small parties rise Liberals and Conservatives are down while the NDP, Greens and Bloc Quebecois are up. But the poll respondents weren't in an election, were they?

December polls show Liberals and Conservatives down with smaller parties rising.

But there was no election, was there? So are their notional gains actually bankable?

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Carney budget cut housing investment: PBO report Liberals’ vaunted Build Canada Homes program will deliver only a 2% boost to housing construction.

PBO report: Carney’s budget cuts housing investment 56%, his vaunted Build Canada Homes will increase housing supply by just 2%

Pretty far from his election promise “to double the pace” of housing construction!

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As big city transit use drops, Carney Liberals cut transit capital Failing to maintain transit equipment is a sure way to ensure people don't take transit.

Urban transit ridership fell across major Canadian cities last year — why?

In Toronto, the hit comes as TTC finally gets the capital investment it’s been starved of for a decade

Whatever the cause, Mark Carney’s transit cut won’t help

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October GDP decline shows bite marks of Trump’s attack Tariffed sectors headed down in October along with residential construction and retail, the warning bell of too few Canadians with money to spend.

GDP dropped 0.3% in October, the sixth month of decline in the first 10 months of 2025

GDP in Oct was $1.3B lower than January. We are in a recession, but the months of contraction are more spread out than the technical definition

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Conservative Party leads among working class and poor voters, polls show NDP support also skews to poor and working class Canadians, but at much lower levels, while Liberal Party dominate among middle class, affluent and university-educated.

Conservatives lead among working class and poor voters, polls show

But perhaps is it less a vote for the Conservatives than a Not Liberal vote — and the Conservative Party holds a monopoly on that?

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