Nice one :-)

Living in Hell War crimes coming: A horrifying update

Don't think I've ever been as terrified in all the Trump security crises. As @pkrugman.bsky.social said, "It’s the most astonishing, awful thing that I’ve ever seen, and we’ve all seen a lot of awful things." Mainly as cope, and to teach it, I keep asking why. 1/ open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...

Fuel shortage/rationing is starting to creep into daily life in Nairobi, inflationary price hikes hitting Ethiopian pockets, Egypt shuts down its night life, currency is crashing (again), Jordan turns off AC in state building.

The region has no way to absorb the commodities shock from this war.

How Trump's regime has become captive to its own lies The US is no longer taken seriously by the world. It is watched, and quietly dismissed - not as a stable hegemon, but as a volatile spectacle

"The US is no longer taken as seriously as it once was. It is watched, and quietly dismissed - not as a stable hegemon, but as something volatile. A spectacle. A performance. A farce."
www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/how-...

More Marines and Warships Head to Middle East as Hormuz Mission Intensifies The Pentagon has also weighed sending more destroyers to the region to escort tankers through the strait.

So, on top of to the awful human toll, the US will:
—Crash the global economy
—Put boots on the ground in Iran?
—Undercut what's left of alliance cred in Asia
—Burn through overstretched naval assets
—Incentivize global nuclear proliferation
—Enrich Russia/China
—???

www.wsj.com/world/middle...

“in the absence of power demand growth, growth in wind and solar power would compensate for the loss of LNG passing through the Strait of Hormuz in just 9 months.”

Zbytečná zajímavost pro dnešní den

Tohle je ca 12 km velký měsíc Marsu, Deimos. Úniková rychlost z jeho povrchu je ca 20 km/hod

To znamená, že je těsně nad tím, jak nejrychleji dokáže člověk vyskočit. Profi sportovci dají ca 15 až 18 km/h

Takže z něho nedokážeme vyskočit! :)

A must-read post by Maryam Nasr Esfahani, an Iranian feminist philosopher and ethicist, translated by Alireza Doostdar and wonderfully contextualized by Naghmeh Sohrabi. open.substack.com/pub/naghmehs... #Iran

We had a quieter afternoon & evening than usual in most of the UAE.

But Abu Dhabi just heard a loud attack.

It’s nearly 3am and my students are safe & sound but shaken. My students—all students, in all countries affected by this war—should be learning, not trembling from bombs.

State Department telling Americans to get out of most of the Middle East due to serious safety risks, and to find their own flights.

www.reuters.com/world/middle...

Checkpoint 303 - Needle Stuck On Lebanon YouTube video by Codruta Oprean

"israeli bombings in southern, eastern, western and nothern Lebanon. once again. just like the sound of a broken record, the needle is stuck on Lebanon"

checkpoint303.free.fr/trackinfo_30...

www.youtube.com/watch?v=MI_s...

Pedro Sanchez continues his run as the only world leader convincingly acting like he cares to defend a rules based world order

But Golestan Palace is most famed for its mirrored tilework. In the Safavid era, mirrors imported from Europe often arrived in shards. Rather than discarding broken mirrors, Iran's crafstmen developed this unique architectural element. Much of it now appears damaged.

It is sickening to think about what might happen next. Thinking of the people in the path of this folly, and of the people of Ukraine, who could have really used those munitions in year 5 of their brave resistance to Russian aggression. 9/9

Iran fired 1200+ projectiles at 5 countries in the first 48 hours. Most were drones. These saturation attacks aim to overwhelm air defenses and drain interceptors. $20-50K Shaheds vs. $4.19M air defense interceptors put US partners on the wrong side of the cost curve.

Írán cílí na vyvolání regionální války. Zásadní je, zda Američané a Izraelci režim vojensky srazí na kolena S expertem Jakubem Koláčkem o tom, kam se konflikt může rozrůst, o co se Teherán nyní snaží a jak se do vývoje propíše smrt Chameneího

🔵 Je možné, že konflikt na Blízkém východě nabyde stejného rozsahu jako válka na Ukrajině. Bude záležet na tom, zda USA a Izrael režim „srazí na kolena,” říká náš výzkumník @kolacekj.bsky.social v rozhovoru pro @respektcz.bsky.social. @ims.fsv.cuni.cz www.respekt.cz/zahranici/vvv

let me put this another way: people who die as a result of nonviolent resistance are killed by the state or imperial violence. they are the victims of state or imperial violence. it's not the strategy that's killing them, the strategy is a targeted response to the thing that wants to kill them.

Arpit Gupta @arpitrage I think the best plausible hypothesis to explain the global decline in fertility is something due to phones and the internet: • time displacement, crowds out other social activities • digital mediated culture shifts, increasing divergence between men+men so couple formation is down • other activities are more fun. ie go on trips and share the consumption on social media • amplifies modernity transition and norm shift towards individualism as opposed to family/collective goals • possibly impacts moods, distraction, comparison and contributes to anomie I'm open to other factors — higher housing costs, daycare costs, etc. As well as amplification channels (when others don't have kids, society adapts and having kids is harder). As well as tempo shifts (timing) to a degree. But there are few other plausible mechanisms which could account for the globally synchronized nature of fertility declines. It sort of happens everywhere that gets high-speed internet, social media, and cell phones.

This is the Tim Carney (X: @TPCarney) hypothesis on the fertility collapse -- smart phones, basically -- and frankly it packs more explanatory punch than anything else on offer

The workshop explores emerging political imaginaries, focusing on questions such as:

What domestic and regional visions of the future arise amid these (dis)continuities?
Who formulates them, and who is excluded?
How do visions advanced by different groups and elites interact, coexist, or clash?

Hard to find anything that captures the situation better

Iranian voices rejecting foreign intervention are being drowned out in western media, journalist Samira Mohyeddin told Drop Site News. She said Iranian students were active in the early days of the protests, calling for human rights and democracy while explicitly rejecting U.S. and Israeli intervention. Instead, she warned, a “Disney-fied” narrative of a benevolent prince returning to save Iran dominates coverage. She added that Israeli officials openly urging Iranians to rise up only strengthen state claims of foreign interference and fuel fears of fragmentation and instability. @jeremyscahill | @SMohyeddin

Iranian voices rejecting foreign intervention are being drowned out in western media, journalist Samira Mohyeddin told Drop Site News. She said Iranian students were active in the early days of the protests, calling for human rights & democracy while explicitly rejecting US & Israeli intervention...

🎥 Why is Iranian state media broadcasting images of the dead? Narges Bajoghli, Iran expert and professor at Johns Hopkins, said Iranian authorities are broadcasting images of people killed in the protests for three reasons. First, “to scare people from coming out onto the street.” Second, to reinforce claims that unrest is tied to a broader geopolitical campaign with foreign support, even as “a lot of them are also ordinary people.” Third, she said, the state is confronting a “catch-22”: sanctions have collapsed the economy, public anger is real, and people want change but fear civil war—leaving the government “up against a wall” with few paths forward.

🎥 Why is Iranian state media broadcasting images of the dead?

Narges Bajoghli, Iran expert & prof. at Johns Hopkins, said Iranian authorities are broadcasting images of people killed in the protests for three reasons. First, “to scare people from coming out onto the street.” Second, to reinforce...

This is the diplomatic correspondent for Israel’s Channel 14 openly boasting about arming protesters in Iran to raise the body count. The Iranian govt has slaughtered many. But the “other” side also has lots of blood on its hands x.com/tamir114/sta...

The Economic Roots of Iran’s Protests Djavad Salehi-Isfahani sees a society caught between internal reform it does not trust and external pressure it increasingly fears.

Excellent piece on the economic roots of Iran protests by Djavad Salehi-Isfahani prosyn.org/ACqb4p8

📣 Postdoc Job Alert! Our colleagues at the @ff.unikarlova.cuni.cz are looking for a part-time postdoctoral researcher (or a PhD student finishing their studies) to join their project on visions of political change in the MENA region. Deadline is on Jan 30. More info: kbv.ff.cuni.cz/en/call-for-...

Postdoc position focusing on the visions of political change in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) at Charles University, Prague

We are looking for candidates who either hold PhD degree or are finishing their doctoral studies to join the project’s team, starting between spring and fall 2026

1/5 In 2019, the former U.S. NSC expert on Russia under Trump 1.0 testified that the Kremlin wanted a "strange swap arrangement between Venezuela and Ukraine" under the logic of a new Monroe Doctrine. Some 6 years later, under Trump 2.0, Putin can be happy to see a [...]

1/10 🧵 The U.S. just captured a sitting head of state in a military operation—and Trump says the U.S. will "run" Venezuela “for now.” Whatever you think of Maduro, this is the most consequential unilateral move in the hemisphere since Panama (1989).

Looking back at 2025, the Middle East may appear "stabilized" from the West. But Iran’s weakening after the 12-Day War risks the country being ignored. In our new policy brief, @kolacekj.bsky.social warns this could lead to another costlier war and argues for a diplomatic opening instead