Higher Oil Prices Pose a Dilemma for US Shale Trump wants producers to unleash output, but many remember the ill-fated dash for growth more than a decade ago.

www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

Mythos Access Must Be Granted on Level Playing Field, Nagel Says Anthropic’s Mythos model should be shared with affected organizations to ensure a level playing field in assessing its uses and dangers, according to Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel.

“Anthropic’s Mythos model should be shared with affected organizations to ensure a level playing field in assessing its uses and dangers, according to Bundesbank President Nagel” at @NABE International Symposium session I had the pleasure to moderate

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Kevin Warsh to say Fed independence not threatened by political pressure

Wonderful City 🩵🩵

🚨Hormuz Strait Now Completely Open for Commercial Ships, Iran Say

www.bloomberg.com/news/live-bl...

🇨🇳 China #GDP growth hits 5% y/y in Q1 despite Iran war

✅ Industrial output +5.7% y/y in March driven by high-tech manufacturing
✅ Goods exports +2.5% after Feb surge
🔸 Retail sales +1.7% (soft)
⛔️ Property investment -11.2%

giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Tax Refund Splurge for Many Americans Is Paying Down Debt Households use this year’s bigger refunds to trim debt, pay bills — and treat themselves with what’s left.

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

EU to relax merger rules in bid to create ‘European champions’ Draft reforms stress benefits of scale and investment in competition regulator’s assessment of proposed deals

EU to relax merger rules in bid to create ‘European champions’

Calls on the EU’s antitrust division to consider impact of mergers on “scale, innovation, investment & resilience as pro-competitive factors that can benefit from a degree of consolidation”

giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

NEW w/ @glennthrush.bsky.social: Pirro defends investigation into the Fed after prosecutors made a surprise visit on Tuesday to the central bank’s active construction site at the center of its probe

www.nytimes.com/2026/04/14/u... @nytimes.com

Warsh Hearing for Fed Chair Set for Next Week, Scott Says The Senate Banking Committee will hold a confirmation hearing next week for Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve chair, the panel’s top Republican said Tuesday.

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

It's choppy out there

Nearly 50% of the March PPI Final Demand for goods advance is attributable 15.7% gas prices.
The indexes for diesel fuel, jet fuel & home heating oil also rose.
Prices for airline passenger services +2.8%.
But margin (markup) fell 0.3% led by food & alcohol

"Downside risks dominate the outlook. A longer or broader conflict, worsening geopolitical fragmentation, a reassessment of expectations surrounding AI‑driven productivity, or renewed trade tensions could significantly weaken growth & destabilize financial markets"

The IMF WEO is rosier than expected

"After withstanding higher trade barriers & elevated uncertainty last year, global activity now faces a major test from war in the Middle East.
Assuming that the conflict remains limited in duration and scope... global GDP +3.1% in 2026"

"Not as bad as feared" tells you more about the unique times than the underlying state of inflation

🔥Headline #PPI +0.5%
📉Core +0.2%

🔥Gds 1.6%
🍳Food -0.3%
⛽️Energy 8.5%
✅Core 0.2%

✅Svc 0%
🚚Transport 1.3%
⚖️Trade (margins) -0.3%

🔥Inflation
🔶PPI: 4.0% y/y
🔶Core: 3.6% y/y

Iran War Causes Biggest-Ever Oil Market Disruption, IEA Says The Iran war is causing unprecedented turmoil in oil markets, hitting 7.5% of global supply and an even bigger swath of exports, the International Energy Agency said.

“The @IEA estimates that the war will slash global oil supply by 8 million barrels a day this month, or almost 250mn barrels in total. Flows through the strait, through which 20mn barrels of crude and products passed last year, are down by more than 90%”

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

US Says It Will Start Blockade of Hormuz After Peace Talks Fail

www.bloomberg.com/news/live-bl...

🔥#Inflation expectations surged in April

📈1-yr ahead: 4.8% (+1.0pt)
⚠️Up 1.4pt from recent low
⚠️ High since Aug '25

📈Next 5-yrs: 3.4% (+0.2pt)
⚠️Up 0.2pt from recent low
⚠️ High since Nov '25

📉Multi-layered shocks is not a good recipe for this economy▶️ income squeeze

⛔️UMich Consumer #Sentiment falls to record low in early April

⚠️Middle East conflict seen as a major negative hit to inflation, finances & employment across all age, income, and political affiliation

🔻Sentiment -10.7%
🔻Current Conditions -10.2%
🔻Expectations -10.2%

Anthropic Model Scare Sparks Urgent Bessent, Powell Warning to Bank CEOs Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell summoned Wall Street leaders to an urgent meeting on concerns that the latest artificial intelligence model from Anthropic PBC will usher in an era of greater cyber risk.

EXCLUSIVE: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell summoned Wall Street leaders to an urgent meeting on concerns that the latest AI model from Anthropic will usher in an era of greater cyber risk.

🇺🇸 Worriesome #inflation dynamics as #oil price shock layers on top of #tariff shock

📊Headline CPI
🔺12-mo: 3.3% (+0.9pt)
🔺6-mo: 3.8% (+1.2pt)
🔺3-mo: 5.3% (+2.3pt)

📊Core CPI
🔺12-mo: 2.6% (+0.1pt)
↔️6-mo: 2.3% (flat)
⬇️3-mo: 2.9% (-0.1pt)

🔺Headline CPI #inflation surged to 3.3% (+0.9pt)
🔥+1.0pt vs. post-pandemic low

🔺Core #CPI flat 2.6% (+0.1pt)
✅+0.1pt vs. post-pandemic low

⚠️The surge in CPI inflation: in the top 10 largest one-month surge since the 1970s

US #Inflation: the good, the bad & the ugly

✅Good: Core CPI up 0.2% (less than expected) & inflation at 2.6% y/y

🟠Bad: inflation understated by 0.4pt from government shutdown & #tariff passthrough ongoing

⛔️Ugly: RECORD surge in gas prices from #oil #MiddleEastconflict shock

US CPI #inflation surges on #oil price shock🔥

📈#CPI +0.9% in March
✅Core +0.2%
🍲Food +0%
⛽️Energy +10.9%: Gasoline +21%⚠️

✅Core gds 0.1%
🚗New 0%
🚘Used -0.4%
👕Apparel 1%

✅Core svc 0.2%
🏘️Shelter 0.3%
🏡Rent 0.2%
🏠OER 0.3%
🏨Hotel 0.2%
🏥Med 0%
🛫Air 2.7%
📜Car insur 0%

📉Real consumer spending still trending at a healthy 2.5% y/y in February, but real disposable income (main fuel to this engine) has slowed to 1.1% y/y

What does this mean?

⚠️Spending driven by savings dip, credit & wealth: limited & finite relief valves going into oil shock

🇺🇸 US corporate #profit margins surge to RECORD HIGH 13.9%

👀Record-high despite elevated/rising costs, tariffs, wages, interest rates

📊Q4 2025:
✅Corporate #profits +$247bn
✅Domestic non-financial +$69bn
✅Domestic financial +$72bn
✅Rest of world +$105bn

🛢️#Inflation reacceleration **before** the oil price shock

🔥February 2026: inflationary short-term dynamics

🔺Headline inflation
⤴️3-month 4.1%
⤴️6-month 3.4%
↔️12-month 2.8%

🔺Core PCE inflation
⤴️3-month 4.4%
⤴️ 6-month 3.4%
⤵️12-month 3.0%

US consumers are dipping into their savings to finance their outlays as low income growth and higher prices represent major constraints

US Consumers spending on fumes

🛒Consumer spend +0.5%
🔶Inflation-adj +0.1%

💵Disposable income -0.1%
🔻Inflation-adj -0.5%

🏦LOW Savings rate: 4.0% (-0.5pt)⚠️

📉PCE #inflation
▶️Headline PCE inflation: 2.8% (flat)
🔽Core PCE inflation: 3.0% (-0.1pt)

US #Inflation pressures firming on tariffs BEFORE Middle East energy shock

📆February 2026
🟠Headline PCE prices: 0.38% m/m
🟠Core PCE prices: 0.37% m/m

🎯Inflation above 2% #Fed target
▶️Headline PCE inflation: 2.8% (flat)
🔽Core PCE inflation: 3.0% (-0.1pt)

Weak end to resilient year. What's next?

📉US Real #GDP revised lower in Q4 2025 w/ 1pt gov shutdown drag
🔶+0.5% q/q
✅+2.0% y/y

🛒Cons +1.9%
👩‍💻Biz invest +1.5%
🏘️Resid invest -1.7%
📦Trade -0.2pt
🏗️Inventories +0.1pt
🏦Gov -5.6%

📈#Inflation
🔺2.8% y/y
🔺Core 2.9% y/y