SCORE, a collaboration of 865 researchers, is now released as three papers in Nature, six preprints, and a lot of data (cos.io/score/). SCORE examined repeatability of findings from the social-behavioral sciences and tested whether human and automated methods could predict replicability.
Can published findings be reproduced from the same data + same analysis? As part of SCORE, Miske and 127 co-authors tested this across social and behavioral science papers from 2009–2018.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
OA: osf.io/preprints/me...
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A "Conversation with Authors" post on my recent @apsrjournal.bsky.social paper "State-Building and Rebellion in the Run-Up to the French Revolution", with @victorgayeco.bsky.social.
www.cambridge.org/core/blog/20...
The emergence and spread of nation-states is one of the most consequential developments in history. But most states still struggle to centralize control, driving violence. My latest post, based on my article with @victorgayeco.bsky.social @apsrjournal.bsky.social
www.broadstreet.blog/cp/188144764
The Grandes Gabelles repository will be released on the Harvard Dataverse upon publication of the WP. It includes GIS shapefiles, the database, and the full set of original maps and tables. In the meantime, preliminary access is available upon request.
We hope it is useful to practitioners!
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More broadly, our GIS of the Grandes Gabelles adds to the growing ecosystem of early modern HGISs alongside those on France’s bailliages and customs, such as @rjstapel.bsky.social for the Low Countries and @otoperalias.bsky.social for Spain.
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Causal inference
👉Existing work uses RDDs at the outer boundary of the Grande Gabelle area, but it bundled many institutional differences. Our GIS enables *within–Grandes Gabelles* comparisons across jurisdictions operating under different gabelle rules, alleviating identification concerns.
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New facts
👉Salt costs depended on distance to production sites & waterways used for transportation
👉The salt tax made ~6% of household budgets, comparable to US household gasoline spending today
👉 66% of the outer boundary of the Grandes Gabelles area coincided with baillage jurisdictions
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The dataset associated with the GIS includes rich information on populations, salt sales, and salt costs.
It reveals substantial heterogeneity across gabelle jurisdictions within the main salt tax region, the Grandes Gabelles area.
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We draw on Sanson's 1665 Atlas of the Grandes Gabelles.
👉21 maps delineating 249 jurisdictions with parish-level precision, paired with rich demographic and fiscal information.
The paper introduces the GIS, documents the associated dataset, and outlines potential EH and HPE applications.
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In a new paper with @evadavoine.bsky.social @enguehard.bsky.social & I. Kolesnikov, we build a historical GIS of a core fiscal institution in early modern France: the gabelle (salt tax). It generated up to 25% of tax revenue and sparked intense popular resistance.
👉 hal.science/hal-05501504
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Some fields list authors alphabetically. Others use norms like "senior last". Others use order to signify relative contributions. In a new paper with @kevinzollman.com, we model the evolution of these norms, and then look at which type of norm is best for science. doi.org/10.1098/rsos...
Our results highlight the importance of distinguishing state-building from state strength. Greater state capacity may eventually stabilize society, but the building process itself can disrupt local social structures and be contested for decades.
Broadstreet www.broadstreet.blog/p/when-state...
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We find that new horse-post relays caused more local rebellions in subsequent decades. This was due to the material consequences of state penetration, as the horse post spurred rebellions against agents with coercive powers to enforce order: the military, the police, and the judiciary.
6/7
We use a staggered DiD design at the parish level that compares changes in rebellion in parishes that received a horse-post relay to nearby parishes that would later receive one. We argue that the local configuration of relays between regional nodes was plausibly exogenous.
5/7
We test this hypothesis by combining archival data on the horse-post relay network over the 18th century from the Liste des Postes and a database of 6,000 rebellions in pre-Revolutionary France from the Jean Nicolas survey.
👉 On the JN survey : doi.org/10.46298/dc....
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This system was central to the monarchy's infrastructural capacity, strengthening its ability to penetrate society—enforce taxes, the rule of law, and conscription. It also crowded out private interests and activities, potentially generating resentment and resistance.
3/7
The monarchy’s communication network was the horse-post: a series of relays every 10–15km where state messengers could get fresh horses for faster travel. On these roads, the state held a monopoly over the gallop, horse rentals, and night travel. It expanded throughout the 18th century.
2/7
Can state-building disrupt rather than stabilize society? Thrilled to have a new article in @apsrjournal.bsky.social w/ @mikealbertus.bsky.social showing that the expansion of state communication networks spurred rebellion for decades in France before the Revolution.
👉 doi.org/10.1017/S000...
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The database is openly available on the Harvard Dataverse. It includes the full database + the complete set of original PDF records.
doi.org/10.7910/DVN/...
I hope this resource is useful to practitioners!
Many people to thank for this long-standing project...!
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I then assess the magnitude of source- and author-driven biases, showing the importance of accounting for the survey's regional stratification.
I also develop a grading scheme based on local archival coverage and provide practical guidelines for the appropriate reuse of this database.
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To evaluate the reliability of the database, I first compare its content with corresponding entries in HISCoD and identify a few discrepancies.
Thanks to @cedricchambru.bsky.social and @pmaneuvre.bsky.social for creating such a terrific resource!
4/6
The database reproduces the *full* content of Jean Nicolas's four-page records.
For each rebellion: its motives, chronology, location, participant characteristics, forms of confrontation and violence, legal consequences, sources, authorship, and a narrative description.
👉284 variables
3/6
I draw on the Jean Nicolas survey: 8,977 records compiled by 64 historians from 1983 to 1999.
The article situates the survey in the historiography, traces its making from the 1970s to the 2000s, describes the database content, and offers a quantitative analysis to guide its empirical use.
2/6
There is growing interest in HPE about social conflict in the run-up to the French Revolution.
In a new article at Data & Corpus, I describe the Jean Nicolas Database, a database of 8,516 rebellions in France (1661-1789)
👉Article: doi.org/10.46298/dc....
👉Database: doi.org/10.7910/DVN/...
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Une petite video qui présente mes recherches dans le cadre des projets POPP et Exo-POPP pour construire des bases de données avec l'IA dans le but de mieux connaître l'histoire des populations (ici surtout urbaines et de banlieue)
lejournal.cnrs.fr/videos/lia-r...
Haha Ok! I will DM you
It covers France 1661-1789. For maps beyond France and this period, I suggest that you look at HISCoD by @pmaneuvre.bsky.social and @cedricchambru.bsky.social
Yes! It is in my paper just out this week: doi.org/10.46298/dc..... More details in a post later today or tomorrow...!
| Prix de thèse de la chancellerie des universités de Paris |
Félicitations à Agnès Hirsch qui a obtenu ce prix pour sa thèse de doctorat, "Statistiques professionnelles et lois sociales : l’invention de la mesure du travail en France (1880-1914)".
En savoir plus : www.ined.fr/fr/actualite...