Genuinely though these are extremely bad for our understanding. No amount of careful caveating changes the fact that when put in the hands of, primarily, the media, MRPs are treated as gospel truth, statistical wizardry of such potency that mere mortals should be in awe of their prognostic power.
The Good Place: “okay. But that’s worse. You do get how that’s worse, right?”
“This is not just an MRP, it’s a Find Out Now MRP.”
Delighted our paper (with an amazing group of co-authors) is forthcoming in the APSR
Takeaway for Labour and other centre-left parties: fixing public services is key to reducing support for the populist right
👇
Perhaps Goodwin will form a new party RightGPT
Iris and Anthony facing the camera with workers at a stand behind
Village Hotel workers have entered their fourth month of striking for better pay, conditions, and recognition.
I joined @irisduane.bsky.social , the STUC, and many others this afternoon in solidarity with them ✊
We've 45 days until the Scottish Election.
A couple of hundred votes on Glasgow's regional list could be the difference between an Eco-socialist MSP like @irisduane.bsky.social or a Reform MSP.
I hope folk who want to defeat Reform as we saw in Gorton & Denton back the Greens on 7th May 💚
What I do find interesting is how so many so-called unionists (and yeah yeah make your customary point about Dan Hannan being born in Peru if you want) seem to be unaware of the U.K. outside of England or they’d know that Churchill isn’t on the banknotes of 50% of the constituent nations
"The collision of a multiparty electorate with a voting system designed for two parties is creating new risks for Britain".
I signed this letter. It's not about blocking Reform;it's about the danger to democracy of a system that can't cope with multiparty voting
www.politicshome.com/news/article...
God forbid you actually have a political programme. God forbid your politics extends beyond triangulating to far-right positions in a doomed effort to not lose the power you're not doing anything with.
Eighteen Greens take a selfie outside the subway before going campaigning
Great afternoon speaking to voters in Glasgow with @patrickharvie.bsky.social, @irisduane.bsky.social and team!
Lots of appreciation for the @scottishgreens.org getting rent control laws passed through Parliament. Now we're working hard to implement them ASAP. ✊💚
Many social democratic parties have ignored this (and focused on winning back socially conservative voters from the radical right). It has turned them into (even more) lifeless bureaucratic cartel parties whose voters are predominantly pensioners and whose "activists" work for the party or the state
I'm delighted to be campaigning with @irisduane.bsky.social not only as one of our regional candidates for Glasgow, but also for the Glasgow Kelvin & Maryhill constituency.
It's a great time to get involved and help the Greens bring the politics of hope to Holyrood!
members.greens.scot/join
I’m absolutely delighted to be the Kelvin and Maryhill candidate for the @scottishgreens.org 💚
Traditionally one of our strongest areas, right now we’re in a 2 horse race to win it from the SNP , I’m going to fight for everything single vote ‼️
It both means that the talent pipeline from local government is not as experienced as it should be, but also I suspect means that people who would be happier being powerful local politicians become frustrated, not very effective legislators instead.
A “Reform vs Not Reform” strategy is only going to work for Labour if they are seen as credibly “not Reform” by LD/Green curious voters. Every hardline intervention on immigration weakens that credibility but without persuading Reform curious voters.
Labour is desperately trying to appeal to Reform supporters. In October, we asked people in the UK if they perceive a party as a "party for someone like them". Only very few people say this for both Labour and Reform. The correlation is negative. Labour is chasing an electorate that does not exist.
“Let me be really clear – every minute that’s not spent talking about and dealing with the cost of living is a minute wasted of the political work of this government” is actually really good advice from the Prime Minister. If only he'd listen to himself.
Don't worry, more gimmicky policies based on a simple reading of issue polling will sort this out
Great research opportunity for anyone working on #Albania and #migration.
Apply by 24 November & feel free to boost and share!
www.wfd.org/vacancy-cons...
My first piece is out now: I argue Reform are the natural conclusion of 80 years of regressive immigration politics in Britain
Check it out, subscribe, and let me know what you think 😄: mikebankole.substack.com/p/reform-uk-...
Five parties within 11 percent of each other with a plurality based electoral system, Britain? Five? That's insane.
Indeed. A thing which is deeply weird about the government at the moment is how they will do something where you go 'makes sense, this will help you turn things around' and then they will immediately relapse. It's like they're trying and failing to quit smoking.
“The experiment nuances it by showing that the SD could have won support for a pro-immigration platform, if they had moralised their messaging. The study shows that by framing pro-immigration policies as a matter of what is ‘fair’ and ‘decent’, they can compete with anti-immigration messages.”
Imagine you're in a weird romcom where Paul Hollywood is your rival. Do you go "let's have a bread baking competition" or do you emphasise your own relative strengths?
Because that in short has been the central problem with the traditional two's approach to anti-immigration voters and Reform UK.
Oh look, Labour has spent months targeting the wrong voters.
Going to start calling other things that are exclusively British 'European-style'.
European-style 'Greggs'
European-style 'House of Lords'
European-style 'red telephone boxes'
European-style 'Doctor Who'
European-style 'Isthmian Premier Division'
European-style 'Kent'
Here, @timbale.bsky.social does a great job spelling out why virtually every expert on the far right (that I have heard from) rejects “hard right” as terminology for these parties and their ideology. Editors should really stop this nonsense.