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Posts by Paul Cerro

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Nothing like a mafia-esque mentality from a sitting president to really make you not question peak American exceptionalism

7 hours ago 4 0 0 0
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Really interesting chart on which stocks have contributed the most to wealth creation

3 days ago 1 0 0 0
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"Bullmonia"

3 days ago 0 0 0 0
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"Tariffs don't raise prices."

1 week ago 1 0 0 0

These guys living in La La Land

1 week ago 0 0 0 0

Whiplash

1 week ago 1 0 0 0

I can't believe we live in a time where if I see sudden moves in price action I gotta scroll Twitter to see if Trump said something...

1 week ago 3 0 1 0
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Interesting that BofA points out that IQVIA data suggest that adherence/persistency rates are stronger with branded Wegovy as opposed to compounded semaglutide.

This goes counter to nearly all compounding pharmacies that suggest compounded GLP-1s lead to better results for patients

$NVO $WW $HIMS

1 week ago 1 0 1 0
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$KITS puts out a Q1 prelim that has revenue at $57.4M but EBITDA margins that "exceed" 6%

Q1 guide was between $58 and $60M in rev on EBITDA margins of 4-6%

Midpoint of guide was ~$3M of EBITDA on $59M of rev

Now it's >$3.5M in EBITDA on $57.4M of rev and the stock is down 10%. Seems overdramatic

2 weeks ago 0 0 0 0

The amount of people on here, including politicians, that don't understand NATO is a **defensive pact** and not just a blind allegiance of military support to allied countries is mind boggling.

Idiocracy becomes a reality more and more with each passing day it seems.

2 weeks ago 7 0 1 0

Exactly! They aren't the only ones. They already have partnerships with a lot of NFL, MLB, and NBA arenas on top of live entertainment venues

2 weeks ago 1 0 0 0

I remember the kevlar backpacks and the idea of training teachers to carry weapons

None of those are ideal

2 weeks ago 1 0 0 0

It's a highly fragmented market with new cos trying to incorporate AI into various forms of screening.

From general CCTV integration, to embedded building columns with sensors, heat sensors that pick up on vitals, etc.

Everyone's trying to crack the code, and rightfully so.

2 weeks ago 2 0 1 0

We like companies with strong tailwinds that can propel growth forward for years to come. It's just unfortunate that the tailwinds for $EVLV are mass shootings.

2026 Q1 mass shootings are already up ~35% y/y.

2 weeks ago 2 0 1 0
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Part 2: Q4 Earnings Update On High Conviction Investment - EVLV Quick update on EVLV and why we think that FY'26 guide hints at a long-term opportunity for price appreciation above $10/share.

Take a look at our quick update below. *Not financial advice.

www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/part-2-q4-...

2 weeks ago 1 0 0 0
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Part 2: Q4 Earnings Update On High Conviction Investment - EVLV Quick update on EVLV and why we think that FY'26 guide hints at a long-term opportunity for price appreciation above $10/share.

We once again see management executing well and, in our opinion, guiding conservatively for FY'26.

Even with a recent S-3 filing, we believe there is significant upside risk for the year, propelled by the strong tailwinds of weapon detection system adoption across the U.S.

2 weeks ago 1 0 1 0
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During this recent drawdown, it can be discouraging to see your investment in the red.

Because of this, we sent around a quick note on one of our highest conviction positions, Evolv Technologies $EVLV, regarding their recent Q4'25 earnings and guide

www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/part-2-q4-...

2 weeks ago 1 0 1 1

In English, why are we rallying? Even if we leave the straight and it's not open, that still doesn't solve anything economically. Everyone else still screwed with higher gas prices.

I understand the sentiment was for trying to rally into anything but the problem won't be solved.

2 weeks ago 0 0 0 0
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Both today and on Friday, the only stock that closed up for me was a retail consumer discretionary name, despite everything else getting thrown out.

Make that make sense.

3 weeks ago 0 0 0 0

Sentiment so bad that they're even going after $NKTR now

3 weeks ago 0 0 0 0
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Makes me feel better knowing that others are in the same boat as you

Not ripping on him either but highlighting that he's a good investor, and good investors sometimes have crap starts to years too

3 weeks ago 0 0 0 0
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Also, it's interesting that AI doesn't seem to be replacing foreign placed workers yet, given unemployment isn't trending higher

4 weeks ago 0 0 1 0
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Yeah, Trump CANNOT have rates go any higher, considering $10 trillion in existing US government debt will need to be refinanced over the coming 12 months.

"The growing supply of investment grade fixed income product is putting upward pressure on rates and credit spreads."

4 weeks ago 4 0 0 0

*expanding his already 10% stake

4 weeks ago 0 0 0 0
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Interesting to see Jorey take an >10% stake in $TOI after strong earnings

4 weeks ago 1 0 2 0
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Part 1: Q4 Earnings Updates and Capturing Cheap Growth? [REAL, KITS, WW] Going over Q4'25 earnings for current investors and why they might standout for new investors looking new areas for capital deployment

We include our notes and thoughts going forward on why the market might be wrong to sell these names down so much, especially $REAL.

Enjoy.

www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/part-1-q4-...

4 weeks ago 0 0 0 0
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2026 has been a tough one on the single-name front, and many stocks are in a "grab your life jacket" mentality despite good earnings

In this mornings post, we break down our thoughts on 3 stocks: $REAL $KITS $WW which reported good earnings only to see their prices get thrown out with the bathwater

4 weeks ago 1 0 1 0

It's just so crazy to think that this was once again another self-inflicted wound brought on by ego

1 month ago 2 1 0 0

The drawdown in $REAL after beating Q4 and raising FY'26 guide is wild to watch

You'd think that oil prices just walked up to it and shot it in the face. Incredibly misunderstood stock when linking to consumer spending habits

That's what we exploited the first time around when it was ~$5

1 month ago 0 0 0 0
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LNSR Terminates Deal - Is It Worth More Than the $14/Share? A quick walkthrough on the math post-deal break, and could LNSR still be compelling as a standalone company?

We argue it could, but more details need to come from a silent management and what seemed to be complacency in the eyes of what could have been a good payday for them.

See our math below on what scenario would need to unfold to get this stock above the $14/share we originally outlined in Feb'25.

1 month ago 0 0 0 0