I'm very proud of this interview in the @oiginstitute.bsky.social magazine. I think it does a good job of capturing what I do and how it all fits together.
Stay tuned for the book I mention there - coming next year!
Jesse Rothstein
“Researchers are taking on projects they might have otherwise passed on, and our government partners get the insights they need to improve programs and policies.” Berkeley econ professor @jrothst.bsky.social on 10 years of the California Policy Lab: https://bit.ly/4mtubyq
A WHOLE CIVILIZATION WILL DIE TONIGHT My son needs lunch, and I have to put his backpack together, but a whole civilization will die tonight, so I'm wondering if they've closed their schools. Like, a snow day, maybe, except instead of snow it's "keep your children home so if you die, you die together" — instead of "well open back up once the plows have cleared" it's "we don't know if we'll be here tomorrow, hold your babies tight." It's just "talk" I'm told, which I've been told before. "It's how the president makes his deals." But I've never heard anyone talk about other human beings this way, and I'm not certain I can look my son in the eyes if we all agree to stomach it one more time. A civilization will die tonight, but as I zip up his backpack and kiss him off to school I think: if this is what we call leadership then I'm not entirely sure ours isn't already dead. @michaelfdubois Mukad A QuBoy @michacifdubois
Brutal.
If you’re in Sacramento on April 9th, come to our 12-1pm lunch panel to hear new insights on this research and what it means for California policy. eventbrite.com/e/priced-out... (9/9) END
NEWS: We’re releasing new research today on who is leaving California, where they go, and what happens to their finances after they move. capolicylab.org/priced-out-r... 🧵(1/9)
Figure 1 from Bitler-Hoynes-Iselin paper (National Tax Journal, 2020) showing per capita expenditures in constant dollars in SNAP, WIC, UI, SSDI, EITC, SSI, and TANF from 2001 - 2019.
This is from Bitler-Hoynes-Iselin (NTJ 2020). None of these programs are primarily for old people (though SSDI is affected by an aging population, the others aren't, or are much less so), and yet they are clearly going up - even without SSDI.
Aging also contributes, but isn't everything.
I would be surprised if this is true. What do you think got smaller to offset growth in EITC, SNAP, Medicaid, SSDI, etc.? Pre-TANF welfare wasn't big enough for this.
We’re pleased to announce this year’s slate of Upjohn Institute Early Career Research Awards. Ten awardees receive $7,500 apiece to carry out policy-relevant research on labor market issues. #ECRA #Econsky
So weird: there's more than one scammy memorial site inviting donations or tree-planting in my dad's memory.
We are not asking for that, but if people feel moved, donations in lieu of flowers to www.aclu-mn.org, www.aclu.org, or www.eff.org
Econ folks, can you help get the word out?
Fantastic essay: "Why the ATM didn’t kill bank teller jobs, but the iPhone did." davidoks.blog/p/why-the-at...
Key point: "it is paradigm replacement, not task automation, that actually displaces workers." In this sense, we're still in the early days of AI's effect on the economy.
To be clear: This decline predates the current administration, and is not a sign of political interference - it is just harder today to get people to respond to surveys. But persistent underfunding of BLS also contributes, as do the staffing cuts in the last year.
Good thread and article.
One factor it doesn't mention is that survey response rates have fallen a lot. The CPS (households) has gone from near 90% to <70%; the CES (estabs) from 60%+ to 42%; the JOLTS is in the low 30s. That hurts reliability and increases revisions.
www.bls.gov/osmr/respons...
BLS establishment survey response rates
Maybe? But look at the JOLTS response rate. I’m not sure we can take anything from it seriously with a 35% response rate.
www.bls.gov/osmr/respons...
Special Seminar. Can Economic Policy Make Life More Affordable? Jared Bernstein, former chair, Biden administration’s Council of Economic Advisers Discussants: Jesse Rothstein (Public Policy, Economics) and Laura Tyson (Haas) Moderated by Michael Reich (CWED). Wednesday, March 11 4:00–5:30 PM IRLE Conference Room 2521 Channing Way irle.berkeley.edu/events. Numerous polls show widespread dissatisfaction with the U.S. economy and, by extension, with both major political parties. In response, Democrats and Republicans are advancing competing approaches to make the economy more affordable. Can either approach succeed?
Can economic policy make life more affordable?
Join us next Wednesday for a special seminar with @jaredb-econ.bsky.social, @lauradtyson.bsky.social, @jrothst.bsky.social and Michael Reich.
Event details: irle.berkeley.edu/event/can-ec...
Reminder! First review date is Feb. 28 - just two days from now.
Moreover, since the relevant question is the proposed rate vs. status quo, the conflict only arises if the proposed rate is so far past the revenue-maximizing rate as to bring in less revenue than status quo policy. Again, I don't see a reason to think that is the case.
Your argument is premised on the idea that the proposed rate is above the revenue maximizing rate. If it isn't, there's no argument - all of the aspects you consider push in the same direction. I don't see a reason to engage with the argument absent some reason to think it is empirically relevant.
This is the exact Laffer move:
Step 1: You accept in principle of course that there is a revenue maximizing tax rate t*, and further increases beyond that would reduce revenue.
Step 2: Let's assume, with 0 evidence, that your proposed t is above t*.
Step 3: Ergo, your proposed t is too high.
Precheck is open now at LAX Southwest terminal.
Re-upping for the long weekend crowd. Please apply! The first review date is Feb. 28.
swadlr swadlr provides access to the EPI State of Working America Data Library (SWADL) API. Examples Use swadlr if you need to programmatically retrieve a time series from SWADL:
Want to explore the EPI State of Working America Data Library in #RStats?
The 🐣 swadlr 🐣 package lets you search available datasets and pull time series directly
economic.github.io/swadlr/
📢 Predoc Opportunity
I'm hiring a full-time predoc to work with me at UC Berkeley, supporting my research on labor economics, the economics of education, and public policy.
jesse-rothstein.com/rothstein_pr...
Please pass on to anyone who might be interested.
#econsky #econ_ra
Agree.
In addition (changing the subject), I really like the concept of “clarity trap.” It might be the best summary I’ve seen of what is wrong with Econ 101ism.
These people are ghouls.
Great thread.
🚨📢 Call for papers - IV Workshop on Economics of Education, Valle Nevado 🇨🇱⛷️
📅 August 18-21
📍Valle Nevado, Chile
Keynotes by Josh Goodman (
@buwheelock.bsky.social ) and Chris Neilson (Yale)
Submit by March 6 👇
bit.ly/49QSsd3
@joshua-goodman.com @christopherneilson.bsky.social
Funding Opportunity!
We are now taking applications for our Early Career Research Awards. These awards provide support to recent PhD earners researching policy and employment issues. Those working in economics, sociology, public policy, political science, and related fields may apply.
#Econsky
Please consider supporting the @capolicylab.bsky.social!
Help us welcome Dr. Monique E. Davis (@moniqueedavis-phd.bsky.social) as our newest economist! Dr. Davis holds a Ph.D. from the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis–St. Paul. Her work centers on examining structural inequalities between marginalized and privileged groups.
#Econsky
@assameeting.bsky.social attendees, join the Institute, LERA, & @neaecon.bsky.social in celebrating the many contributions of Bill Spriggs to econ profession & policy at a luncheon on Jan 4 and two paper sessions. Search “Spriggs" at https://bit.ly/4ohwkg4 for details