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Posts by Probabilita

If the repost means yes, please DM me. I am using public channels because I do not have a way to contact you privately.

1 day ago 0 0 0 0

@nikpayuk.bsky.social Hi Daniel. I see you are trying to find a job/raise money. Are you interested in resources about funding your work on C++ metaprogramming through open source funding agencies? I think your work may be eligible for some funding schemes.

1 day ago 0 1 1 0

That's a new one. Now we need to start coordinating with sperm whales.

1 week ago 0 0 0 0

I understand now: People crave power and tyranny as they crave sunshine and rain, for the burden of self-awareness feels like pain. At times, even like catastrophe.

-- Ai Weiwei, from the article referenced here

1 week ago 1 1 0 0
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What I Wish I Had Known About Germany Earlier A German newspaper commissioned an article from me but then refused to publish it.

hyperallergic.com/what-i-wish-... every move of Trump is a Reichstag fire

1 week ago 1 2 0 1

I would guess its data collection for some AI training.

1 week ago 0 0 0 0

I hope the lancheru is sending you lots of pictures and you get to visit!

1 week ago 0 0 0 0
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Emjoi Doctor GIF ALT: Emjoi Doctor GIF

For the next 24h, drop any infectious disease and/or vaccine-related questions in response to this post, and I will do my best to answer them. Answers are for information only, NOT medical advice.
#AskAnIDDoc April 2026 edition.

1 week ago 146 49 40 5

Much obliged! Thank you for doing this work!

1 week ago 0 0 0 0
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Thank you! That was super helpful!

I am assuming you are counting HPV, Shingles, RSV under standard vaccines? (These should be standard IMO, but being based in Germany, there is some difficulty accessing all three).

1 week ago 5 0 1 0

Which non-standard vaccinations are a good idea to get?

1 week ago 7 0 1 0
Kisi Disco Mein Jaaye | Udit Narayan | Alka Yagnik | Bade Miyan Chote Miyan | 1998
Kisi Disco Mein Jaaye | Udit Narayan | Alka Yagnik | Bade Miyan Chote Miyan | 1998 YouTube video by 90's Gaane

Have a little pick-me-up: Govinda and Raveena Tandon dancing the fuck out of a silly little song.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfAI...

2 weeks ago 3 1 1 0

Whats that in astronomical units?

2 weeks ago 0 0 0 0

Life does not feel like life right now. It feels like a story, with a climax, character development, strong emotions and suspense.

I wish upon myself and all of you to have a boring life again.

2 weeks ago 1 0 0 0

The point about scientists constituting a sort of epistemic elite (i.e. those who have much more say in how reality is constructed than others) is in my experience easily accessible to laypeople.

Once the separation between these concepts is made, I think the point you have been making will follow.

3 weeks ago 0 0 0 0

professionalized version of this universal activity. Science on the other hand is, to me, a professional setting where some of these universal activities are practiced in formalized, highly structured, and highly incentivized ways by people who are forming, to various degrees, an epistemic elite.

3 weeks ago 0 0 1 0
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I think there is an issue with definitions here.

Laypeople in my experience do not separate neatly between empiricism, the scientific method, and science as how its practiced at institutions of science.

I would call empiricism a universal human activity and the scientific method a formalized, …

3 weeks ago 0 0 1 0

It’s sort of obvious why most of the Western world is against declaring the trafficking and enslavement of Africans as “the gravest crime against humanity”. Their ancestors did this.

3 weeks ago 15 5 1 0

I would insult the politicians who enable this violence against women as pigs and eels, but this would be unkind to pigs and eels. Death is in their wake, and they have abandoned their humanness for some shallow experience of power through violence. May their teeth fall out.

1 month ago 0 0 0 0

This is an apt analogy for many marginalized medical situations.

In theory, care medication can be accessed, but you run into so many roadblocks that you may just give up and accept whatever is coming to your body.

1 month ago 0 0 1 0
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The United States of Abortion Mazes To illustrate how difficult it is to get abortion care in the United States, we built a maze for each state where the difficulty is calculated by the state’s abortion policies.

OK BUT A SERIES OF MAZES THAT INCREASE IN DIFFICULTY BASED ON HOW FUCKED UP THE ABORTION POLICY OF THAT STATE IS

1 month ago 161 62 3 8

Das gibt es; es gibt on-the-ground Protestgruppen die zum Beispiel von trans Menschen geführt werden.

Das sind aber auch oft Leute die direkt von ICE getargeted werden und fliegen mussten oder verschleppt wurden.

Die Strukturen leiden also echt unter den laufenden Pogromen.

1 month ago 2 0 0 0

By the way, I think going strictly gluten-free pretty much cured my ME/CFS. I now go running and stuff. New life, new body, new outlook, less food though. Massive cravings for pizza.

1 month ago 0 0 0 0
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"Do you have a gluten-free meal? I have celiac disease."

"Not much, only bread. Have bread."

Airport employees. Such lovely people. So nice and friendly and so helpful. I wonder how they get their brain removed, though; that sounds medical.

1 month ago 1 0 1 0

Much strength to you!

1 month ago 1 0 0 0

I don't think it would. That's just straight up deceptive methodology.

P-hacking is more specific and refers to using statistical artifacts specifically. It can be applied to produce incorrect/deceptive results whether the methodology is sound or not.

1 month ago 1 0 0 0

This sounds suspiciously like P-Hacking to me, just looking at the 96.9% number. Its precisely using the 1/20 studies that happen to measure statistical artifacts.

bsky.app/profile/dako...

1 month ago 6 1 1 0
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Data dredging - Wikipedia

I did not verify that this is exactly what happened here, but we all should get a little suspicious when we see numbers close to 1/20 in science.

There are other ways of faking study results to come close to this number, such as P-hacking.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_dr...

1 month ago 1 0 0 0

Imagine a zoo full of ducks and penguins.

Its 80.000 ducks and 20 penguins, but you don't know that. Instead you count; but not all of then. You just pick 20 animals at random and extrapolate.

There simply is some chance that you happen to pick penguin 20 times in a row by statistical accident.

1 month ago 1 0 1 0

Scientific studies often use whats called a P-value. Its a measure based in the statistics of the study indicating how likely the study is wrong by chance. A P-Value of 1 means "definitely wrong", 0 means "never wrong", 0.5 means "50/50" chance.

0.05, 1/20 chance is often used as a target value.

1 month ago 1 0 1 0