From Shield to Target: The Gulf’s Security Dilemma - AGSI Regardless of the outcome of ongoing U.S.-Iranian negotiations, Gulf states are likely to speed up the diversification of their defense partnerships, including with each other, though many hurdles…

Serious discussions are now unavoidable: Gulf states need to explore alternatives to the old security model, rethink intra-GCC cooperation, and pursue partnerships that provide both operational depth and industrial capacity. – Nour Eid agsi.org/analysis/fro...

Yielding to Shortage: Gulf Crisis Prompts Fertilizer and Food Shocks - AGSI When transportation insurance withdrew from Gulf waters, it triggered an agricultural supply chain shock whose effects will reach crop yields in South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America…

War-risk cancellations and prohibitive repricing withdrew the financial infrastructure required for commercial shipping, effectively closing the Gulf corridor. – Héla Miniaoui agsi.org/analysis/yie...

Reading Oil Market Signals in a Fog of War - AGSI The oil market is no longer anchored by a shared baseline. Instead, it is being pulled in different directions by competing assumptions about geopolitics, prices, and economic resilience.

The latest outlooks from the International Energy Agency, OPEC, and U.S. Energy Information Administration point to a market in which even the most closely watched institutions no longer agree on the direction of travel. – Kate Dourian agsi.org/analysis/rea...

From Shield to Target: The Gulf’s Security Dilemma - AGSI Regardless of the outcome of ongoing U.S.-Iranian negotiations, Gulf states are likely to speed up the diversification of their defense partnerships, including with each other, though many hurdles…

In modern conflicts that no longer hinge on clear winners and losers, the Gulf states can leverage limited capabilities to generate outsized disruption. – Nour Eid

Can Qatar Still Mediate After Becoming a Target? - AGSI With Iran, Qatar is balancing dialogue with deterrence.

Can Qatar Still Mediate After Becoming a Target? – Faisal Al-Hanzab agsi.org/analysis/can...

Yielding to Shortage: Gulf Crisis Prompts Fertilizer and Food Shocks - AGSI When transportation insurance withdrew from Gulf waters, it triggered an agricultural supply chain shock whose effects will reach crop yields in South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America…

Within 48 hours of the initial U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, war-risk premiums for Gulf transit surged fivefold. – Héla Miniaoui agsi.org/analysis/yie...

Yielding to Shortage: Gulf Crisis Prompts Fertilizer and Food Shocks - AGSI When transportation insurance withdrew from Gulf waters, it triggered an agricultural supply chain shock whose effects will reach crop yields in South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America…

The cease-fire itself expires in just days, and President Donald J. Trump has indicated it may not be extended. Insurance market conditions as of April 18 reflected this volatility: War-risk premiums remained sharply above peacetime baselines. – Héla Miniaoui agsi.org/analysis/yie...

Yielding to Shortage: Gulf Crisis Prompts Fertilizer and Food Shocks - AGSI When transportation insurance withdrew from Gulf waters, it triggered an agricultural supply chain shock whose effects will reach crop yields in South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America…

The Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed by an actuary before it was threatened by missiles. The conflict that began February 28 has demonstrated that maritime insurance markets, not kinetic disruption, can be the first mechanism to halt trade. – Héla Miniaoui agsi.org/analysis/yie...

From Shield to Target: The Gulf’s Security Dilemma - AGSI Regardless of the outcome of ongoing U.S.-Iranian negotiations, Gulf states are likely to speed up the diversification of their defense partnerships, including with each other, though many hurdles…

Once the dust settles, Gulf states are likely to accelerate the diversification of their strategic partnerships with greater urgency and focus. They have already started to do so, with outreach to countries from South Korea to Ukraine. – Nour Eid agsi.org/analysis/fro...

Reading Oil Market Signals in a Fog of War - AGSI The oil market is no longer anchored by a shared baseline. Instead, it is being pulled in different directions by competing assumptions about geopolitics, prices, and economic resilience.

The oil market is no longer anchored by a shared baseline. Instead, it is being pulled in different directions by competing assumptions about geopolitics, prices, and economic resilience. – Kate Dourian

From Shield to Target: The Gulf’s Security Dilemma - AGSI Regardless of the outcome of ongoing U.S.-Iranian negotiations, Gulf states are likely to speed up the diversification of their defense partnerships, including with each other, though many hurdles…

What Gulf leaders had hoped would be careful U.S. restraint, particularly under the Trump administration, instead resulted in them being drawn into hostilities without sufficient consultation or opportunity for preparation. – Nour Eid agsi.org/analysis/fro...

Reading Oil Market Signals in a Fog of War - AGSI The oil market is no longer anchored by a shared baseline. Instead, it is being pulled in different directions by competing assumptions about geopolitics, prices, and economic resilience.

Reading Oil Market Signals in a Fog of War – Kate Dourian agsi.org/analysis/rea...

Inside Iran’s Wartime Leadership: Power, Succession, and Regime Stability - AGSI On April 21, AGSI will host a discussion on the evolution of Iran's leadership during the war.

Thanks to all who joined today's discussion. The video will be available at the link below in the coming days. agsi.org/events/insid...

Inside Iran’s Wartime Leadership: Power, Succession, and Regime Stability - AGSI On April 21, AGSI will host a discussion on the evolution of Iran's leadership during the war.

The 5-man Iranian leadership council does not have particularly good experiences with Russia, but at the same time, IRGC strategists say that a country like Pakistan is not strong enough to act as a serious security guarantor. @alfoneh.bsky.social agsi.org/events/insid...

Inside Iran’s Wartime Leadership: Power, Succession, and Regime Stability - AGSI On April 21, AGSI will host a discussion on the evolution of Iran's leadership during the war.

As much as the Islamic Republic has done well out of the war, the people of Iran have not done well, not only in the war, but also in the horrendous savagery that occurred back in January. – Ali Ansari agsi.org/events/insid...

Inside Iran’s Wartime Leadership: Power, Succession, and Regime Stability - AGSI On April 21, AGSI will host a discussion on the evolution of Iran's leadership during the war.

Ali Khamenei knew the kind of criticism that would be directed against him and the regime once the regime became a hereditary dictatorship. @alfoneh.bsky.social agsi.org/events/insid...

Inside Iran’s Wartime Leadership: Power, Succession, and Regime Stability - AGSI On April 21, AGSI will host a discussion on the evolution of Iran's leadership during the war.

It is very peculiar that there is no sight or sound of Mojtaba Khamenei, and it's a very peculiar position to be in for a system that bases itself on charismatic authority. – Ali Ansari agsi.org/events/insid...

Inside Iran’s Wartime Leadership: Power, Succession, and Regime Stability - AGSI On April 21, AGSI will host a discussion on the evolution of Iran's leadership during the war.

If we want to understand the strategic behavior of Iran, we need to understand the five individuals running the country. @alfoneh.bsky.social agsi.org/events/insid...

Inside Iran’s Wartime Leadership: Power, Succession, and Regime Stability - AGSI On April 21, AGSI will host a discussion on the evolution of Iran's leadership during the war.

Ghalibaf made it clear that Iran can’t go on like this. And in that sort of sense, we can begin to see the divisions that are occurring within the Iranian political establishment. – Ali Ansari agsi.org/events/insid...

From Shield to Target: The Gulf’s Security Dilemma - AGSI Regardless of the outcome of ongoing U.S.-Iranian negotiations, Gulf states are likely to speed up the diversification of their defense partnerships, including with each other, though many hurdles…

Regardless of the outcome of ongoing U.S.-Iranian negotiations, what is unfolding is a turning point forcing Gulf states to reconsider the foundations of their strategic dependence. – Nour Eid agsi.org/analysis/fro...

From Shield to Target: The Gulf’s Security Dilemma - AGSI Regardless of the outcome of ongoing U.S.-Iranian negotiations, Gulf states are likely to speed up the diversification of their defense partnerships, including with each other, though many hurdles…

Gulf states have long had concerns about the extent of U.S. protection and whether the presence of U.S. bases in the region shields them or increases their vulnerability. The current U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran has brought these concerns into sharp focus. – Nour Eid agsi.org/analysis/fro...

New Regional Corridors Emerge Amid Iran Conflict - AGSI One silver lining of the Iran conflict may be the emergence of new, more durable foundations for regional economic integration via more agile trade corridors in the Gulf and beyond.

Even if short-lived, temporary initiatives may very well still shape the gradual development of the transregional India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor. – Robert Mogielnicki

Yielding to Shortage: Gulf Crisis Prompts Fertilizer and Food Shocks - AGSI When transportation insurance withdrew from Gulf waters, it triggered an agricultural supply chain shock whose effects will reach crop yields in South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America…

When transportation insurance withdrew from Gulf waters, it triggered an agricultural supply chain shock whose effects will reach crop yields in South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America within a single growing season. – Héla Miniaoui

Yielding to Shortage: Gulf Crisis Prompts Fertilizer and Food Shocks - AGSI When transportation insurance withdrew from Gulf waters, it triggered an agricultural supply chain shock whose effects will reach crop yields in South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America withi...

Yielding to Shortage: Gulf Crisis Prompts Fertilizer and Food Shocks – Héla Miniaoui agsi.org/analysis/yie...

Inside Iran’s Wartime Leadership: Power, Succession, and Regime Stability - AGSI On April 21, AGSI will host a discussion on the evolution of Iran's leadership during the war.

TOMORROW 9:30am ET, don’t miss “Inside Iran’s Wartime Leadership: Power, Succession, and Regime Stability,” with @alfoneh.bsky.social, Ali Ansari, and @ibishblog.bsky.social. Join us! agsi.org/events/insid...

New Regional Corridors Emerge Amid Iran Conflict - AGSI One silver lining of the Iran conflict may be the emergence of new, more durable foundations for regional economic integration via more agile trade corridors in the Gulf and beyond.

Iran has threatened to activate the Bab el-Mandeb front if its coast or islands are attacked, and the Houthis have renewed attacks on Israel but thus far held off from actively disrupting shipping in the vital waterway. – Robert Mogielnicki

New Regional Corridors Emerge Amid Iran Conflict - AGSI One silver lining of the Iran conflict may be the emergence of new, more durable foundations for regional economic integration via more agile trade corridors in the Gulf and beyond.

On April 9, the UAE and Bahrain signed a 5-year, $5.44 billion currency swap aiming to facilitate cross-border transactions and monetary cooperation. – Robert Mogielnicki

New Regional Corridors Emerge Amid Iran Conflict - AGSI One silver lining of the Iran conflict may be the emergence of new, more durable foundations for regional economic integration via more agile trade corridors in the Gulf and beyond.

For the moment, regional actors are responding to acute pressures on supply chains, resulting in crisis management-related corridors. – Robert Mogielnicki agsi.org/analysis/new...

Inside Iran’s Wartime Leadership: Power, Succession, and Regime Stability - AGSI On April 21, AGSI will host a discussion on the evolution of Iran's leadership during the war.

On 4/21 join AGSI for a discussion with @alfoneh.bsky.social, Ali Ansari, and @ibishblog.bsky.social, on the evolution of Iran's leadership during the war. Register now! agsi.org/events/insid...

New Regional Corridors Emerge Amid Iran Conflict - AGSI One silver lining of the Iran conflict may be the emergence of new, more durable foundations for regional economic integration via more agile trade corridors in the Gulf and beyond.

The political economy context through which regional trade and investment corridors operate is shifting. The Iran conflict and associated geopolitical shocks have injected urgency into alternate trade routes, logistics cooperation, and connectivity initiatives. – Robert Mogielnicki