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Posts by Hannes Baumann

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Exclusive | U.A.E. Asks U.S. About a Wartime Financial Lifeline Emirati officials have spoken with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about accessing dollars if the Middle East conflict drags on.

This report says the UAE is asking the US for a currency swap

Don't think this is about dollar shortages:
• The UAE is wealthy
• The Iran war has reduced but not stopped oil exports
• It just signed its own swap deal with Bahrain

www.wsj.com/world/middle...

14 hours ago 1 1 1 0

What I find interesting about this is that, paradoxically, the threat is part of a request for a dollar swap line, which would further entrench their link to the dollar.

1 day ago 1 0 0 0
But they have also argued that it was President Trump’s decision to attack Iran that entangled their country in a destructive conflict whose effects may not be over, some of the officials said. Emirati officials told the U.S. officials that if the U.A.E. runs short of dollars, it may be forced to use Chinese yuan or other countries’ currencies for oil sales and other transactions, some of the officials said.

But they have also argued that it was President Trump’s decision to attack Iran that entangled their country in a destructive conflict whose effects may not be over, some of the officials said. Emirati officials told the U.S. officials that if the U.A.E. runs short of dollars, it may be forced to use Chinese yuan or other countries’ currencies for oil sales and other transactions, some of the officials said.

Emiratis are threatening to use petroyuans.

www.wsj.com/world/middle...

1 day ago 81 34 4 3

Reminder: Two 4.5-year @wellcometrust.bsky.social funded postdoc positions at @livunihss.bsky.social Deadline 7 May 2026

4 days ago 0 4 0 0

Fascinating - I ordered it for our library and look forward to reading it. I'm from that corner of Germany and we had a large French garrison in Landau.

2 days ago 1 0 1 0
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Third Annual Historical Political Economy Conference: Call for Papers Co-organized by Allison Hartnett, Assistant Professor of Political Science; and Jeffery A. Jenkins, Provost Professor of Public Policy, Political Science, and Law University of Southern California Oc...

CfP for our 3rd Annual HPE Conference @uscprice.bsky.social @usc.edu sponsored by @usccis.bsky.social and PIPE. Submit by May 30. If you work on MENA, I am running a smaller pre-conference for HPE papers focused on the region. @polisky.bsky.social docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

3 days ago 22 15 1 2
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Petrodollars. Myths and Reality | Council on Foreign Relations Global dollar liquidity is driven far more by Asian manufacturing surpluses than by oil exporters stashing dollars away offshore. The glory days of the petrodollar are over.

"there is enough real data for me to refute the modern financial fairy tale that there is a big float of petrodollars sustains the dollar system. This is fun to believe, but not really based in reality." www.cfr.org/articles/pet...

5 days ago 0 0 0 0
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Who’s managing all the sovereign wealth? We tried a hard thing and came away with more questions than answers

... And shouldn't this be easier to figure out?

www.ft.com/content/c411...

5 days ago 11 8 0 0

Very useful comparative oil shock data viz.

6 days ago 54 22 0 1

Lebanon's ministry of health now has counted 2124 deaths from Israeli attacks since March 2.

Of those, 168 have been children.

1 week ago 13 19 0 0
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Brutal

1 week ago 19 6 0 0

Germanophones, can you recommend any YouTube resources, music, etc. for level B1/B2 German level?

1 week ago 1 1 0 0
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The first paper of my dissertation is published now in @sociologyjnl.bsky.social!

Press coverage of the richest Germans is rare but focused on a minority of highly visible individuals and varies along the historical origins of fortunes.

doi.org/10.1177/00380385261428292

1 week ago 115 33 3 1
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Lebanon's death toll from Israeli strikes passes 2,000 Lebanese authorities said on Saturday that Israeli strikes have killed 2,020 people since the start of the war between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah last month. The new toll from the Lebanese heal...

According to the latest count from the Lebanese Ministry of Health, released this morning, since March 2, Israeli bombings in Lebanon have killed at least 2,020 people, including 165 children, 248 women, and 85 health workers, and injured more than 6,000.

www.naharnet.com/stories/3194...

1 week ago 45 44 1 1
Arab states should beware of Israel’s hegemonic energy expansion The Iran war revealed how dependent Israel’s Arab neighbours are on its gas exports.

The article does not adress the issue of Israeli natural gas flowing then interrupted through Jordan, this challenging again electricity supply www.aljazeera.com/opinions/202...
Israeli colonialism or imperialism in Syria strangely is a blind spot here, as is the dependency to Turkiye

1 week ago 1 1 0 0
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Syria Between Shockwaves: How the War on Iran Is Reshaping Its Transition When the United States and Israel launched military operations against Iran, they opened a new phase in the region’s instability, defined not only by direct confrontation but also by far-reaching a…

Fascinating by @haidhaid22.bsky.social on Syria in the region but also on Syrian economy: Risks (energy price shock) and opportunity (infrastructure hub between Med and Gulf) www.arab-reform.net/publication/...

1 week ago 2 0 1 0

it's been occurring to me that something extraordinary about LLMs when you interact with them is the base level of 'you're absolutely right, that was a bad mistake' and then apparently moving on completely. it's really making me think about what the *function* of shame is, for humans.

1 week ago 42 5 2 0
Text: "We're hiring! Assistant Professorship (W1) 'International Politics' (m/f/d)"

Text: "We're hiring! Assistant Professorship (W1) 'International Politics' (m/f/d)"

Job opportunity at the #GIGA & Osnabrück University: We jointly seek to appoint an Assistant Professor (W1) in #InternationalPolitics (m/f/d) for quantitative research in #InternationalRelations / #ComparativePolitics on Africa, Asia, Middle East or Latin America: www.giga-hamburg.de/de/karriere/...

1 week ago 5 6 0 0

The ballyhoo over the petrodollar is turning into a foofaraw.
“It all goes back to a shady 1974 deal with Saudi Arabia to price oil in USD! That has been a linchpin of US power for 50 years, but now it’s coming undone!”
Please. Stop believing--and parroting--this baloney.

1 week ago 4 1 1 0
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🇱🇧🔴112 people killed in Israeli strikes today across Lebanon, mostly in Beirut. 837 wounded.

This is the latest and not the final count from Lebanon's health ministry, in one of the deadliest days of the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah.

1 week ago 17 20 1 1

I don’t think Iran cares much about Lebanon but that is outweighed by its distrust of Israel and the US. It might annul the deal with the US because it isn’t convinced any deal with them will be upheld and it may need to rely on Hezbollah again to open multiple fronts of attack

1 week ago 7 2 0 0

Hospitals reporting they are overwhelmed with victims. Over 100 strikes in just minutes. Many in Beirut and its southern suburbs.

1 week ago 72 65 0 5
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Aftermath of strikes in central Beirut just now #lebanon

1 week ago 33 28 0 1

Israel hit all over Beirut. Strikes were in nearly all the neighborhoods surrounding my house. Reports saying many injured and dead. Israel seems to be intensifying before a ceasefire is implemented

1 week ago 815 376 12 18

Before heading to bed, my 16 year old asked me “just a quick question - was there almost nuclear war today?” We cannot normalize this.

1 week ago 3 3 0 0
Postgraduate research | School of Histories, Languages and Cultures | University of Liverpool

@livunipol.bsky.social invite applications for Bowes Chair PhD Studentship in Politics in any aspect of democratisation, nationalism, and ethnicity studies (broadly understood) relating to Central and Eastern Europe or comparative studies with other regions. www.liverpool.ac.uk/histories-la...

1 week ago 2 3 0 0
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The Commentary Roundtable on The Global Politics of Precarity and Insecure Work, edited by @stellamorgana.bsky.social and I, now has a permanent home in the latest issue of @gpejournal.bsky.social (Volume 5, Issue 1). Read more here: bristoluniversitypressdigital.com/view/journal...

3 weeks ago 4 3 0 0

I think often of a New York Times photo of a little Iraqi girl tending to her parakeets in a bombed house, probably from 20 years ago now. I will think of this man and his sweet dog often now too. People just want to love what they love, care for their little beings, and instead we do this to them

3 weeks ago 8100 2169 52 23

I truly cannot bear to see what this evening will bring.

2 weeks ago 79 19 1 2