Hezbollah attacked Israeli forces in southern Lebanon and northern Israel for the first time since the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire took effect on April 16. The IDF struck the Hezbollah rocket launcher responsible for the attack on Israeli forces in Rab el Thalathine. (6/6)
CTP-ISW previously assessed that it very unlikely that Iranian-backed Iraqi militias would conduct drone attacks against regional states if the Iranian regime opposed such attacks, which suggests that Iran has not ordered its militia partners to cease attacking regional states. (5/6)
Iranian-backed Iraqi militias conducted up to half of the roughly 1,000 drone attacks targeting Saudi Arabia during the war, according to unnamed sources speaking to the Wall Street Journal on April 21. (4/6)
CTP-ISW continues to assess that Vahidi appears to have the upper hand over Ghalibaf at the moment. (3/6)
Conflicting reports on April 20 and 21 about Iran's participation in the scheduled negotiations and Iran's failure to produce a unified proposal reflect the ongoing intra-regime power struggle between Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and IRGC Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi. (2/6)
NEW | The United States extended its ceasefire with Iran “until such time as [the Iranian] proposal is submitted and discussions are concluded.” Trump confirmed that Washington will maintain its blockade of Iranian ports.
Read more: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira... (1/6)
The United States sanctioned TIFANI in July 2025 for transporting illicit Iranian oil. The vessel has previously taken trips to Qinzhou, China, which is a hub for Iranian imports.
CTP-ISW will provide further analysis on the negotiations and ceasefire in its April 21 Iran Update. (8/8)
The US Navy interdicted the sanctioned Botswana-flagged tanker TIFANI in the INDOPAC area of responsibility overnight on April 20 and 21. (7/8)
The Iranian delegation may attempt to secure a ceasefire extension. The ceasefire is set to expire in the evening Washington time on April 22, according to US President Donald Trump. Trump has repeatedly stated that he does not want to extend the ceasefire. (6/8)
An unnamed source told Axios that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued formal approval on April 20 for Iran’s participation in a second round of talks despite the IRGC pressure on the negotiating team to reject such talks. (5/8)
Ghalibaf and those defending negotiations remain under significant pressure because the IRGC continues to reject negotiations with the United States and several stated US demands. (4/8)
He may nonetheless reject direct negotiations until the United States meets Iranian preconditions, in part because of the fractious nature of the Iranian political establishment at this time. (3/8)
Ghalibaf seems to prefer negotiations and has publicly defended the negotiations against Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) backlash. (2/8)
NEW | An Iranian delegation, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, will likely go to Islamabad, Pakistan, for negotiations with the United States on April 22.
Read CTP-ISW's latest analysis about the war here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira... (1/8)
This is consistent with CTP-ISW's assessment that there is division between Vahidi and his inner circle over Iran’s negotiations policy, and that the Iranian Supreme Leader has not played the role of cohering and arbitrating between various factions, likely exacerbating intra-regime fighting. 6/6
5/ The IRGC effectively told the Iranian negotiating delegation that they “don’t speak for” the IRGC after senior regime officials reportedly called the negotiating delegation back to Tehran after it surpassed its mandate.
4/ These reports are consistent with CTP-ISW's ongoing assessment that Vahidi and members of his inner circle have likely consolidated control over not only Iran’s military response in the conflict but also Iran’s negotiations policy.
3/ Ghalibaf’s removal as the parliament speaker would represent a major defeat for Ghalibaf and his domestic positions and signify a victory for Vahidi.
2/ Ghalibaf’s push for diplomacy and apparent effort to reach a deal may also be a bid to protect his domestic position and maintain credibility. Ghalibaf reportedly fears that both his and Araghchi’s positions are at risk if the IRGC consolidates control.
MORE | Ghalibaf publicly defended negotiations on Iranian state television on 4/18, arguing that diplomacy with the United States, alongside military power, is necessary to secure Iran’s objectives. 1/6
US and Iranian delegations will reportedly meet in Islamabad, Pakistan, for a second round of talks in the coming days. US and Iranian demands appear to have largely stayed the same, however.
The Iranian bill would also require vessels from “hostile countries” to obtain approval from Iran’s Supreme National Security Council to transit the strait, and bar states that “caused damage” to Iran from transiting the strait until they paid reparations to Iran.
The Iranian Parliament is attempting to formalize Iranian “control” over the Strait of Hormuz by drafting a bill that would ban Israeli-linked vessels from transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Vahidi is reportedly the only Iranian official with direct access to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and is serving as a conduit for relaying key decisions to other regime officials, according to Israeli media on April 19.
Vahidi appears to have the upper hand over Ghalibaf at the moment.
NEW | Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf appears to be engaged in a serious intra-regime debate with IRGC Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi and other senior regime officials opposed to negotiations with the US. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Ukrainian forces continue their mid-range strike campaign against Russian military assets in Belgorod Oblast that aims to interdict Russian logistics. Russia launched 142 drones against Ukraine overnight.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Borova direction and western Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka and Dobropillya tactical areas.
Ukraine continues to expand its cooperation with Gulf States.
Russian forces attempted to use long-range one-way strike drones to assassinate Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov, a Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) advisor on defense technology and a drone and electronic warfare (EW) expert.