In light of news that talks are cancelled....

Ball is in Trump’s court now, strikes or deadline extension…..

Trump’s Choices in Iran Are “Humiliation or Escalation” Columbia University professor Elizabeth Saunders says any deal with Iran that Trump reaches now will fall short of America’s initial goals for the war.

Pleased to speak to
@perrybaconjr.bsky.social about Trump’s choice between humiliation or escalation.

Trump’s Choices in Iran Are “Humiliation or Escalation” newrepublic.com/article/2092... via @newrepublic.com

Trump and Diplomacy: Time to Eat Some Spinach - Political Violence at a Glance By Elizabeth N. Saunders and James H. Lebovic. In the wake of the election—and Barack Obama’s last overseas…

One of the very first things I ever wrote about Trump was titled "Trump and Diplomacy: Time to Eat Some Spinach." (RIP Political Violence @ A Glance)

politicalviolenceataglance.org/2016/11/28/t...

Trump not only “got” a photo-op with Kim Jong-un, in return he suspended US-South Korea military exercises—something North Korea and China long wanted—and started acting like the star employee of Kim’s PR team.

Diplomacy takes work to succeed. At least when it comes to advancing national interest.

Even worse, his pseudo-engagement antagonizes the other government and kills off the possibility of real diplomacy later. When the Hanoi summit fell apart, it convinced Kim that negotiating with the U.S. was pointless. There have been no talks since then.

He’s been president for 5+ years. No excuses!

Reminder that analysts thought there was a deal to be struck with North Korea in 2017-2018, not to denuclearize (they won't), but to count/verify nukes, stabilize situation. Trump didn't order any diplomatic work for that and instead did a photo op with Kim.

His diplomacy and his deals are fake.

Suggested edit:
♦️The choices are humiliation now, or humiliation after escalation.

There is no scenario under which Iran grants-- or is metaphysically capable of granting-- Trump's maximalist demands (ie, including surrender of de facto control of Strait of Hormuz). Geography is geography.

Fact-check: ✅✅✅

This is the crux of the issue: Any "deal" will be pure window-dressing. To obscure Trump's de facto surrender.

I’ll put many fake* dollars on Trump extending the deadline past Wednesday, lying that Iran has agreed to things it hasn’t actually agreed to.

*I wouldn’t bet for real on real world events. Doing so seems… unhealthy.

There is still no real bargain to strike -- the bargain was struck in 2015 w/ JCPOA and now we have raised the value of nukes, added Hormuz as a problem, and can't credibly commit to a serious deal. There is a "deal" Trump will sell as victory, but is in reality a humiliation.

This was from my thread 2 weeks ago during the horrifying "civilization will die" waiting game. I'm maybe a smidge less terrified because Trump so desperately wants a deal (and Iran does too though they still have the leverage). But the choices are still humiliation or escalation.

I was actually quite wrong about this. Trump managed to choose humiliation *AND* escalation.

Humiliation or escalation. Same as it ever was, on Trump's watch.

Again: the choices are humiliation or escalation. The humiliation option will be dressed up as victory.

Agreed. This is a right mess he got us into.

So, we juiced markets a little bit and gave Iran time to dig out its launchers. Cool.

A US delegation — including the Kush (happy 420) — flying to Islamabad to talk to themselves is classic Trump foreign policy.

Same two choices: humiliation (framed as victory which it very much won't be), or escalation.

The insider trading suspicions looming over Trump's presidency The BBC has found a pattern of spikes in trades ahead of public announcements by the US president.

Great journalism here: "The BBC... found a consistent pattern of spikes just hours, or sometimes minutes, before a social media post or media interview was made public.

Some analysts say it bears the hallmarks of illegal insider trading..."

So on Friday, when there were headlines, and chyrons, and world leaders other than Trump saying "the Strait is open," it was not, in fact, open, and is even more closed now. Clearly both sides want a deal, but to get there the US is going to have to give up its maximalist demands.

Apart from that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?

So on Friday, when there were headlines, and chyrons, and world leaders other than Trump saying "the Strait is open," it was not, in fact, open, and is even more closed now. Clearly both sides want a deal, but to get there the US is going to have to give up its maximalist demands.

Cover of Anna O. Law’s book “Migration and the Origins of American Citizenship”

Excited to host @unlawfulentries.bsky.social at @siwpscolumbia.bsky.social this week to talk about her new book!

I mean, of course that’s what happening. It’s been clear the whole time

My gut says these negotiations still go forward. Iran said the same thing last time and still showed up. How they unfold remains to be seen, but they’re likely to happen.

That said, Iran still has competing internal dynamics that need to be resolved before any meaningful progress is possible.

After Geneva, the Iranians could be forgiven for thinking this.

Iran already got Trump to:
-Agree to negotiate on Iran’s terms
-Drop demands for Iran to make concessions as a precondition
-Pressure Israel to cease fire in Lebanon as a precondition

They see he’s thirsty for a deal, and likely aim to make him extend Tuesday’s deadline in exchange for nothing.

One reason that we cannot have professional diplomats representing the interests of the United States is that it would disrupt a pattern of personal enrichment for the Presidents allies and families.