Agreed. This is a right mess he got us into.

So, we juiced markets a little bit and gave Iran time to dig out its launchers. Cool.

A US delegation — including the Kush (happy 420) — flying to Islamabad to talk to themselves is classic Trump foreign policy.

Same two choices: humiliation (framed as victory which it very much won't be), or escalation.

The insider trading suspicions looming over Trump's presidency The BBC has found a pattern of spikes in trades ahead of public announcements by the US president.

Great journalism here: "The BBC... found a consistent pattern of spikes just hours, or sometimes minutes, before a social media post or media interview was made public.

Some analysts say it bears the hallmarks of illegal insider trading..."

So on Friday, when there were headlines, and chyrons, and world leaders other than Trump saying "the Strait is open," it was not, in fact, open, and is even more closed now. Clearly both sides want a deal, but to get there the US is going to have to give up its maximalist demands.

Apart from that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?

So on Friday, when there were headlines, and chyrons, and world leaders other than Trump saying "the Strait is open," it was not, in fact, open, and is even more closed now. Clearly both sides want a deal, but to get there the US is going to have to give up its maximalist demands.

Cover of Anna O. Law’s book “Migration and the Origins of American Citizenship”

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I mean, of course that’s what happening. It’s been clear the whole time

My gut says these negotiations still go forward. Iran said the same thing last time and still showed up. How they unfold remains to be seen, but they’re likely to happen.

That said, Iran still has competing internal dynamics that need to be resolved before any meaningful progress is possible.

After Geneva, the Iranians could be forgiven for thinking this.

Iran already got Trump to:
-Agree to negotiate on Iran’s terms
-Drop demands for Iran to make concessions as a precondition
-Pressure Israel to cease fire in Lebanon as a precondition

They see he’s thirsty for a deal, and likely aim to make him extend Tuesday’s deadline in exchange for nothing.

One reason that we cannot have professional diplomats representing the interests of the United States is that it would disrupt a pattern of personal enrichment for the Presidents allies and families.

💯

"U.S. and Iran are said to near a framework for future negotiations" New York Times headline April 17, 2026. Story by Michael Crowley and Farmaz Fassihi https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/17/us/strait-of-hormuz-open-iran-talks-negotiations.html

US and Iran are said (passive voice) to near (aren't at) a framework (not a deal) for future negotiations (to talk later)

In other words, they can't even agree on what to hold a meeting about.

Peace reigns! All rejoice!

Iran is under considerable economic pressure, and surely wants an end to the blockade, funds unfrozen immediately, and long-term sanctions relief. But an ongoing standoff over Hormuz keeping energy supplies choked while bombs are not falling is about as good a strategic position as they could have.

+1 (and I wasn’t quite sure before given the power of the Strait). Invasion insurance is not optional when the other side cannot credibly commit to a deal. Even after Trump is gone, polarization still means a deal may not outlast a change in party in the White House.

The dynamic of Trump’s war of choice has not changed. Escalation or humiliation. Even accounting for how much damage Iran has taken and may still face.

Make maximalist demands, get a maximalist response. And undermine your ability to credibly commit in the process.

As noted earlier, Iran operates with two distinct power centers, and the one that truly matters is the faction that controls the military. The U.S. is almost certainly not talking to that group.

Who could possibly have foreseen? Oh wait

For Iran, Flexing Control Over Waterway Is New Deterrent

"American military and intelligence officials estimate that, after weeks of war, Iran still has about 40 percent of its arsenal of attack drones and upward of 60 percent of its missile launchers — more than enough to hold shipping in the Strait of Hormuz hostage..." www.nytimes.com/2026/04/18/u...

NEW YORK (AP) — Air Canada will suspend service to New York’s JFK International airport over the summer as the war in Iran creates jet fuel shortages that have sent prices soaring.

@apnews.com
apnews.com/article/air-...

Two Indian-flagged ships attacked while crossing Strait of Hormuz, government confirms Two Indian-flagged vessels carrying crude oil were ​on Saturday attacked while ‌attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz, India's ​Ministry of External Affairs ​confirmed in a statement.

Two Indian-flagged ships attacked while crossing Strait of Hormuz, government confirms reut.rs/3OJ8f61

Pleased to discuss the Iran War with @eisendrath.net.

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The Strait of Hormuz is open. No wait, it's closed. Today on @heartlandsignal.bsky.social we'll dig into the latest on the mad man in the oval office with:

+ @lizdye.bsky.social
+ @amandalitman.bsky.social
+ @profsaunders.bsky.social
+ @emilyhorne.bsky.social

🤳Stream 1-4 CT bit.ly/3DAcG8s

Trump still retains the capacity to temporarily move the markets with his empty rhetoric on the Iran war, but each episode only serves to further underscore his impotence in the face of the realities his war has created.

Iran has told mediators it will continue to limit the number of ships allowed to cross the Strait of Hormuz and charge tolls for the remaining period of the cease-fire, officials familiar with the matter said.-WSJ

There of course are these reports:

Numerous ships making the break for the Strait of Hormuz this evening have made abrupt U-turns and are heading back towards the Persian Gulf.

Over a dozen ships have already turned back.

Well well well