The last time a Supporting Actor win happened for a performance not in a Best Picture nominee was Christopher Plummer in Beginners, but he was only competing with one other performance in a (not very popular) Best Picture nominee, Max von Sydow. Culkin's going up against three of them.
Anora's only real shot now might be Original Screenplay, if the Academy figures that's the only thing it could win.
An interesting thing happens in Adapted Screenplay, where Nickel Boys *could* prove to be the Women Talking of the season, with Picture its only other nomination. Conclave at risk?
And if that latter scenario is the case, Torres wins Actress in a Marion Cotillard sort of way (over spunky rising star Mikey Madison/Elliot Page and established veteran with a narrative Julie Christie/Demi Moore).
No Picture nod for A Real Pain puts Culkin's chances on life support. Maybe Norton?
If A Complete Unknown wins Picture, we're looking at Chalamet for Actor in a good, old-fashioned movie-biopic kind of way.
Wondering about the possibility of I'm Still Here usurping Emilia Pérez in International Feature in a Lives of Others sort of way. Emilia's much more divisive overseas.
Some more in-depth thoughts:
Becoming more convinced about A Complete Unknown as I think about it. Favored heavily by the preferential ballot.
It's between Corbet and Audiard for Director, but it's not too common to lose Director when you made a 13- or 14-nomination movie. Last time: Fincher in 08
QUEER completely shut out, clown show
Officially predicting A Complete Unknown to win Picture, Audiard to win Director (ugh), Torres to win Actress, and Chalamet to win Actor
Thinking Torres is the winner.
I really feel like A COMPLETE UNKNOWN is creeping up the list here.
Den of Thieves is worse than I remember
Holy shit this looks great
10 nominations for EMILIA PÉREZ at Critics Choice, but only 2 for MARIA (which I watched last night and was great). Ugh
So happy Culkin’s pretty much sweeping so far
So excited
Caught up with DÍDI today. Holy crap that movie is incredible
Wish I had some idea of when I’ll see this
Just caught up with this one yesterday. Quite lovely, a darker twin of ARE YOU THERE GOD? IT’S ME, MARGARET.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
The Gotham award for Best Screenplay goes to HIS THREE DAUGHTERS
👋
Time to revisit Ridley Scott's GLADIATOR.
We are leaving X, Twitter, whatever the fuck it's called in a week. We would love to start up here in earnest. Please Re-Blue or whatever it's called. Tell your friends to follow here. We love you.
In fact, it's on my bucket list to show this to someone in person who has no idea what it's about or what they're in for, then watch them become a harried, exhausted mess by the end of it.
Stewart's performance might be my single favorite performance in all of cinema (so far)
If I were asked what the single most intense movie ever made is, I would answer with this one. It drenches you in sweat. Hitchcock's greatest magic trick.
The fastest 200 minutes you'll ever encounter in motion-picture form. It's not homework at all: it's rousing fun.
The greatest rock-and-roll movie ever made, as well as a sublime comic release valve. If you watch this and feel anything other than delight, you might be a corpse.
The greatest adult prestige drama that Hollywood has ever produced, and the most popular movie of all time for a good reason.
My North Star. That will likely never change.
But allow me to reply to this with a few other stars that shine nearly as brightly.
I so very much wanted to love it.
