US #stocks look #expensive by any sensible measure, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social

It Doesn’t Matter What Kevin Warsh Has to Say The Powell case and future economic challenges are out of the Fed nominee’s hands.

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Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist

It Doesn’t Matter What Kevin Warsh Has to Say

The Powell case and future economic challenges are out of the Fed nominee’s hands.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

‘Demand for US assets from foreigners has fallen.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @johnauthers.bsky.social

Vote for the best of the internet I just voted in The Webby People's Voice Awards and checked my voter registration.

Please may I ask a favor. A video we made last year on the absurdity of the Liberation Day tariffs has been nominated for a Webby. Voting closes Thursday. Please vote for it! Thank you.
vote.webbyawards.com/PublicVoting...

Brilliant. This link didn't work for me when I tried it.

If Only the Profanity Meant an End Was in Sight Markets have a lot to weigh up, but optimism took a bruising over Easter weekend.

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist

If Only the Profanity Meant an End Was in Sight

Markets have a lot to weigh up, but optimism took a bruising over Easter weekend.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Will the Ayatollahs Chicken Out Is the New TACO Iran’s leaders have more incentives to keep the conflict going than Trump does.

From TACO to WACO - Will the Ayatollahs Chicken Out?
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Markets Want to Declare an Off-Ramp and Go Home Without a deal, the best outcome may be for the US to forcibly reopen the Strait.

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@johnauthers.bsky.social ,
Columnist

Markets Want to Declare an Off-Ramp and Go Home

Without a deal, the best outcome may be for the US to forcibly reopen the Strait.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Powell to ’70s: Drop Dead Yes, there’s an oil shock, but fears of stagflation are way premature.

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Opinion | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist

Powell to ’70s: Drop Dead

Yes, there’s an oil shock, but fears of stagflation are way premature.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

“We estimate that the current increase in gasoline prices could lead to a 60-basis-point decline in the savings rate, bringing the overall reading to 3.9%, in line with other periods of instability, such as in 1999-2001 and 2005-2008.“ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @johnauthers.bsky.social

Trump has broken it. Now he owns it Continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens the movement of gas and fertilisers as well as oil

Worth reading: www.ft.com/content/86be...

Investors Can Handle What’s Happening in Hormuz Earnings forecasts are still holding up share prices despite war’s surprises.

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social
Columnist

Investors Can Handle What’s Happening in Hormuz

Earnings forecasts are still holding up share prices despite war’s surprises.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

#war in #Iran
Until the attacks started on Feb. 28, there was total #confidence in the #Fed funds futures markets that there would be at least 2x 25bp #cuts this year. Now, that’s down to one, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social

this is a great graph from @johnauthers.bsky.social 's newsletter

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Commit What You Know of Iran to the Flames Skepticism is warranted on the war and market behavior. Call it the Hume Doctrine.

@johnauthers.bsky.social Hume Doctrine. Superlative piece. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

The View of Iran From 40,000 Feet It looks like the Strait of Hormuz will be closed for months. That will hurt.

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The View of Iran From 40,000 Feet
It looks like the Strait of Hormuz will be closed for months. That will hurt.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

AUTHERS: “.. logic now points toward escalation .. The Strait of Hormuz is closed, Iran evidently intends to keep it that way, and there is no credible means to claim US victory unless it reopens.”

@johnauthers.bsky.social

Trump’s Big Tariff Stick Is a Little Smaller Now He’s trying workarounds, but the Supreme Court ruling showed there are limits.

Opinion | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist

Trump’s Big Tariff Stick Is a Little Smaller Now

He’s trying workarounds, but the Supreme Court ruling showed there are limits.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

The Change of Mind That Drove a Rotation Most money managers are now worried that companies are overinvesting.

All you could need to know about the stock market rotation: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

@johnauthers.bsky.social : "Usually, soft- and hardware move roughly together; now the fear is that huge increases in computing capacity will require ever more purchases from chipmakers and obliterate software codewriters"

Bondi Beached — OK, Let’s Talk About the Dow The market’s performance under Trump 2.0 is no better than other recent presidencies.

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist

Bondi Beached — OK, Let’s Talk About the Dow

The market’s performance under Trump 2.0 is no better than other recent presidencies.

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

US #job report and #inflation projections in the swap market, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social

LOL this Tina Fordham quote from today's @johnauthers.bsky.social ~

www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

‘Takaichi is charismatic and forceful. Comparisons to Margaret Thatcher are apt, but Britain’s Iron Lady never won a mandate this emphatic.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

This has aged well. Two months ago, Brighton #BHAFC leapt to a 2-0 lead over Aston Villa and would have gone third in the table if they'd held on. Yes, it would have been good if the season had ended right there:

A Hawk or a Dove? Understanding Kevin Warsh The appointment signals that the bare-knuckles legal fight to control the Fed is over.

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A Hawk or a Dove? Understanding Kevin Warsh

The appointment signals that the bare-knuckles legal fight to control the Fed is over.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Powell’s Survival Tip — Be Boring The Federal Reserve really doesn’t need the curse of interesting times.

Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist

Powell’s Survival Tip — Be Boring

The Federal Reserve really doesn’t need the curse of interesting times.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com

Trump Keeps TACOing. What If Markets Stop Caring?

“In a world where markets don’t believe anything the government says, the worry is that markets realize too late the damage that has actually been done.”

My chat with the @financialtimes.com’s @robarmstrong.bsky.social, who gave us “🌮 Theory,” and @johnauthers.bsky.social of @opinion.bloomberg.com:

Look at Them Yo-Yos Make Your Money Worth Nothing Banging down the dollar like Trump is obviously hurts. But so does China’s gold binge.

‘A weak dollar makes US exports more competitive, and imports more expensive — a key Trump 2.0 aim and a reason why he has advocated for a weaker dollar in the past. The problem is inflation.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

This @johnauthers.bsky.social piece is interesting, it says that the gold price surges can be a function of China's monetary easing and the improve adoption of its international payment system