AND @mattgreencomedy.com who was certainly my favourite of the three
Posts by Peter Chappell
Current detention capacity is 2,200. Zia Yusuf would be in charge of creating the largest detection and deportation regime in Europe from scratch. In a year.
What would actually happen if Reform wins at the next general election?
In this chilling nonfiction thriller, Peter Chappell @petebogs.bsky.social takes us day by day through a world in which Reform has the opportunity to put their policies into practice.
What If Reform Wins publishes 30th April.
On the other… the more councils they win, the more voters are confronted with the shoddy way the party has run authorities up until this date….
On one hand it will give the party much needed momentum after the failure in Gorton and Denton
Will the Reform gains at the local election help or hinder its chances at the next general election?
this was great fun, and also Peter's - frightening! Terrifying! - book is also extremely funny and readable
What if Reform actually wins at the next general election? Farage chain smoking in No 10, an attack on the BBC, and t-shirt canons…. Fantastic to chat with the incredible @youngvulgarian.marieleconte.com and @jonnelledge.bsky.social on @ohgodwhatnow.bsky.social
open.spotify.com/episode/0hxG...
If/when Reform terminates ECHR, EU will likely respond by leaving the security component of post-Brexit trade cooperation agreement, making it even harder to track illeagl migration across borders and into the UK
Brexit/EU tensions: Farage has vowed to rip up the Withdrawal Agreement and try to renegotiate. Ofc he's already hated in Brussels but a breakdown in relations will only make getting returns agreements even harder...
The Taliban, like the airline companies, will have Farage over a barrel. The sight of Britain's former enemies extorting the country out of millions in a migration deal would go down very badly with veterans etc.
it's hard to see how that sort of deal could work and, crucially, be popular and retain public consent. Especially when its done in the context of stripping people with ILR of their citizenship/ general upheaval
To avoid this, they may look to making deals with the Taliban in Afghanistan, and or other regimes distasteful to the British public. It's hard to imagine Farage shaking hands with their leader in Kabul... Giving them hundreds of millions will be hard to sell
...seen in Manston in 2022 (while Robert Jenrick was Immigration Minister), where there was an outbreak of diphtheria, scabies and MRSA. 4,000 ppl were held there despite capacity being 1,600. There is an ongoing inquiry into what happened.
Detention centres pt2: Reform has promised to deport 600k over 5 years. But if they try to act quickly, they'll find there is no capacity in the system to house people while they are waiting on a decision. This could mean that we see a repeat of the disorder and conditions..
Detention centres: it's a myth that there are hundreds of 'disused military bases' scattered across the country. A Daily Mail article recently claimed there were '2,177' ready for conversion but this included school CCF huts... www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article...
(This is assuming they have the capacity to put on hundreds of additional flights. At the moment, some flights to say, Nigeria, only run with a couple of people on board. Reform would be paying for these sorts of international flights all the time, unless they make agreements.
Flights: the UK currently uses private airlines to remove/deport people. To rapidly expand flights, new contracts will have to be negotiated rapidly and as only a select few companies run them, they will have officials over a barrel, likely leading to a payday for owners.
How much extra are you going to pay for someone to go into new border units than, say, the police? In the US, they are offering $50k sign-on bonuses for would-be ICE employees. One way is through big civil service cuts. BF was ringfenced in announcement of 3.5bn cuts
Staffing: Zusuf calls for "ICE-style" raids in this piece (something he's unlikely to repeat soon after the recent shooting in Minnesota). But the Home Office/border force is already at capacity doing these sorts of raids on businesses like car washes and barber shops.
Let's assume that Reform has passed a Great Repeal Bill and has left the ECHR, Refugee Convention, and Human Rights Act (big If but can be done through primary legislation eventually)
What operational obstacles would Reform run into in government if it tried to deport 600k people (or 1.2 m as Zia often claims)? #whatifReformwin thread:
www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...
It’s a gripping speculative non fiction thriller telling the story of what Farage could do as prime minister, based on dozens of interviews with insiders and those tasked with preparing for what could be store of Britain…
Delighted to say I’m publishing a book called What If Reform Wins: a Scenario with @bloomsburybooksuk.bsky.social in April 2026 t.co/beKEShh4Gf
details of the ghent altarpiece, seen this weekend
archway is not the place to see spring in. but standing in front of this tree at midnight last night was enough for now
as nature in the UK has become ever more depleted, ppl's understanding of what is truly wild has become denuded. I'm surprised how often on walks/trains ppl will compliment a landscape of fields, when in truth its an ecological wasteland. they think green = nature, and fear anything more challenging