So among the three polls she’s consistently at the top (at or tied in two). And her leading opponent changes. I wouldn’t bet against her at this point.

I’ve not seen any publicly available polling other than this. A lot of caveats obviously.

www.winthrop.edu/winthroppoll...

“Unsuccessfully” is a subjective concept and obviously a lot of time between now and November, but shes very likely the favorite right now.

Premium Miniwallet Basco Whiskey + Secrid wallets are made in Holland, with great care for product, people and our planet. ✓ Transparent production

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how much Ohio's changed since Brown first ran for the Senate in 2006. Here are the maps of his four Senate elections. You can see how Ohio has changed & how Brown's geographic base has changed. He now runs as a standard Democrat in very Trumpy Ohio. Even the Mahoning Valley was gone for him...2/

Registration Recover Project update for 8/11/2025:

🗳️ 16,578 fewer people are on the RRP list today than were on July 17
🗳️ 893 people from the original list no longer are registered voters in #ncpol
🗳️ 36 people have been added to the list.
🗳️ 86,692 people remain

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I had this exact experience with @daviddarmofal.bsky.social but at a more modest invited talk. We went to high school 15 minutes apart and both ended up in South Carolina.

The amazing Policy Agenda Project at UT-Austin have coded President Trump’s 2025 address to the Congress. See how his priorities have changed and how they differ from other presidents.

Why Americans Dislike Government, Even When it Works - Niskanen Center Americans mistrust services provided by the public sector, even though they increasingly rely on government programs. Amy Lerman finds that citizens perceive public services as inefficient and lower q...

Americans widely believe government is inefficient, bureaucratic, & wasteful compared to the private sector--so much so that when they get good service, they assume it is privatized:
www.niskanencenter.org/why-american...

A lot of caveats (not super familiar with DiD lit, don’t know your data, etc.) but unless sample size is an issue, it seems the balanced panel is better, all else equal. Can you explore what, if anything, correlates with the missing obs? I usually go deep into my data in these situations.

Do they produce roughly the same results? If so, problem solved!

Thanks for sending. Looks great! And definitely parallels our paper.

picture of Western Carolina University from the campus mountain bike trails.

We (Western Carolina University) are searching for an assistant prof. of Political Science w/ a specialization in American politics(subfield open).

it's a 3:3 load, a collegial department, in a beautiful location.

Application review starts Jan 15

Polisky

jobs.wcu.edu/postings/29407

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The Geographies of Economic Voting in Presidential and Congressional Elections Click on the article title to read more.

For this article we built a dataset of economic conditions at the county and media market level, including local gas prices, finding little effect on voting behavior when compared to their national counterpart.

Link here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...

Excellent piece by @johnsides.bsky.social on why local factors fail to explain Trump's vote share increase in cities. Matt Tarpey (Pittsburg State) and I show essentially the same in a 2016 article in PSQ--local economic conditions are unrelated to voting behavior in national elections.

Thank you for these lists! I’d love to be added to one.

I see gerrymandered congressional districts… and dead puppies.

We believe this paper sheds light on how members of Congress approach governance and a key issue at the nexus of mass attitudes and legislative procedure.

Our primary hypothesis suggests the existence of heterogeneous treatment effects, with conservative citizens expressing greater support for repeals: holding constant the policy outcome, operational conservatives express far greater support for repeals than moderates and liberals.

Consistent with existing work our survey experiment indicates that Americans care little about whether a policy outcome is achieved by repealing an existing law versus enacting a new law. However...

For this piece we conducted a survey experiment that asks respondents to indicate their support for a range of policy proposals, randomizing whether the outcome is achieved via the enactment of a new law or the repeal of an existing law.

Ends versus means? Ideology and support for repeals in the mass public An important, but poorly understood issue in modern American politics is the conservative wing of the Republican party's interest in repealing legislation. Although existing work shows that conservat...

My first post over here, and it’s self-promotion, because obviously.

Check out my forthcoming article "Ends vs. Means" (with Nate Birkhead and Karyn Amira) in Legislative Studies Quarterly on mass attitudes toward repealing legislation.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Segregation Academies Across the South Are Getting Millions in Taxpayer Dollars North Carolina offers an especially telling window into what is happening across this once legally segregated region where legislatures are now rapidly expanding and adopting controversial voucher-sty...

Introducing myself here! I write about the South for @propublica.org often about race, gender & the welfare of children. Investigative narratives are my 1st love.

Here is my latest in our series about segregation academies with the great @mrsimon22.bsky.social

www.propublica.org/article/segr...

Thank you! I’d love to be added.

In our NORC panel, it's clear that Harris built support relative to where Biden was in the late winter.

Harris retained the vast majority of Biden's Feb./Mar. supporters but won over 36% of those who were undecided vs. 18% going to Trump in Sept./Oct.

3) Look up your professors’ campaign contributions on OpenSecrets.

Not exactly what you want, but in this paper we use the 2nd dim as an “establishment v. anti establishment” measure. We have a cite or two on this.

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Bob Inglis?