From rupture to re-ordering: Middle powers and Europe’s choices  – European Council on Foreign Relations The international system is no longer held together by a single dominant vision of order. While the US is retreating from its dominant&

🗓 21 April 2026 | ⏰ 17:00–18:00 (CEST)
💻 Online

The global order is shifting—fast. But what comes next? What does that mean for Europe?

Join our webinar with Anthony Dworkin, Julia Leininger & Richard Gowan, chaired by Jana Puglierin.

More info and registration here: https://bit.ly/4tB0z4x

Disperse to Survive: The Logic of French Forward Deterrence In his long-awaited nuclear deterrence speech, French President Emmanuel Macron laid out his new doctrine of “forward deterrence” (dissuasion avancée) and

Just in time for your weekend, I have a fresh piece out with @warontherocks.bsky.social on the new 🇫🇷 French nuclear doctrine of “forward deterrence” and why dispersed air operations are a better comparison to it than 🇺🇸 U.S. forward nuclear deployments and nuclear sharing arrangements in 🇪🇺 Europe.

From rupture to re-ordering: Middle powers and Europe’s choices  – European Council on Foreign Relations The international system is no longer held together by a single dominant vision of order. While the US is retreating from its dominant&

🗓 21 April 2026 | ⏰ 17:00–18:00 (CEST)
💻 Online

The global order is shifting—fast. But what comes next? What does that mean for Europe?

Join our webinar with Anthony Dworkin, Julia Leininger & Richard Gowan, chaired by Jana Puglierin.

More info and registration here: https://bit.ly/4tB0z4x

Screenshot of two paragraphs from the Wall Street Journal article linked to in the post. They read: “Beyond repositioning troops, the plan could also involve closing a U.S. base in at least one of the European countries, possibly Spain or Germany, according to the two administration officials. Countries that could benefit because they are viewed as supportive include Poland, Romania, Lithuania and Greece, the officials said.”

Punishing Europeans by moving US forces closer to the border with Russia? Oh no!

Trump Team Explores Punishment for NATO Countries That Didn’t Support Iran War www.wsj.com/world/europe...

Japan’s Order For Tomahawk Missiles Delayed by US Use in Iran Japan’s order for hundreds of Tomahawk missiles from the US is under threat as the American-Israeli war with Iran burns through inventories, the latest example of how the conflict is drawing in suppli...

The US is delaying Japan’s Tomahawk missile purchase as the Iran war burns through stockpiles. I’ve warned that the high use and slow replenishment of TLAMs would create a gap. The readiness bill is now due and allies are bearing the cost. My comments: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

A European Sonderweg in Long-Range Strike How European states are diverging from global procurement trends in long-range drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles

🚀 I published a new Missile Matters post reviewing the state of European long-range strike procurement, and diagnosing what I call a European Sonderweg: a divergence from the rest of the world in this capability area.

Link:
missilematters.substack.com/p/a-european...

Summary below.

1/4

Info graphic with a map of Europe outlining the scope of the US Army Europe and Africa's exercise Sword 26. The exercise involves US and NATO forces operating from distributed locations across the High North, Baltic region, and Poland.

A first sign of "critical but more limited"?

"Formerly known as DEFENDER, Sword 26 reflects a strategic evolution in focus, shifting from deploying forces from the United States to Europe to leveraging in-theater forces." www.europeafrica.army.mil/SWORD/

“The Euro-Atlantic area is not at peace,” but sure, let’s deploy most of Europe’s operational maritime assets to Trump’s sinkhole of un-strategy.

I went back to capture what the astronauts said in full when the clock was stopped at T-10 minutes and they were asked if they were go for launch:

This is Victor. We are going for our families.
This is Christina. We are going for our teammates.
This is Jeremy. We are going for all humanity.

Wie denken 🇫🇷 und 🇩🇪 über europäische Souveränität in einer Welt wachsender Machtkonkurrenz? Können sie weiterhin gemeinsam die Handlungsfähigkeit der 🇪🇺 stärken?
@rafaelloss.bsky.social & Florent Marciacq bei La Denkfabrik

📆7.4.26, 18:00
📍online

Infos & Anmeldung 👇
ladenkfabrik.eu/de/news/souv...

Right. Lots of speculation on this site all week about what the Marine Expeditionary Units headed towards the Persian Gulf might do, most of it pretty unhinged, so this thread is MEU 101. I'll keep adding to it as necessary.

Why extremist groups target young people | Sofie Lilli Stoffel | TEDxBerlin Salon YouTube video by TEDx Talks

How democracies think about the future is a strategic vulnerability.

While we think in election cycles and budget years, dictators, armed groups & extremists plan in generations.

If we don’t shape the society of tomorrow, they will do it for us.

📹 the TED talk: www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVpT...

In January 2026, DNK brought explosives to destroy runways & blood to treat wounded soldiers in case of an escalation in response to Trump's threats to take Greenland by force.

The Reporting is based on 12 key sources at the top of the DNK government, Armed Forces, & in allied countries in Europe.

Copyright: la Denkfabrik

Diskussion 🇫🇷🇩🇪 #Frankreich - #Deutschland & europäische #Souveränität: Strategische #Autonomie, EU-Erweiterung, #Sicherheitspolitik & Zugang zu kritischen Rohstoffen

📆 7. April, 18:00
📍 #online Anmeldung: forms.gle/YH2MrKfNXsfE...
💬 DT/FR

Mit @rafaelloss.bsky.social @ecfr.eu & Florent Marciacq #ÖFZ

Fully agree! And NATO has never meant allies are committed to follow each other into wars beyond NATO territory. Eisenhower refused to support Eden over Suez. Wilson said no to LBJ over Vietnam. It’s a case by case decision depending how each sees its national interest. Tho that’s not Trump’s world.

From shield to sword: Europe’s offensive strategy for the hybrid age – European Council on Foreign Relations Europe’s defensive measures to shield its democracies from hybrid attacks are no longer enough. If Europeans want to protect their peace and prosperity, the tim

Europe’s defensive measures to shield its democracies from hybrid attacks are no longer enough. If Europeans want to protect their peace and prosperity, the time is to fight back, write Will Brown, @jkobzova.bsky.social, @nicupopescu.bsky.social and José Ignacio Torreblanca.

https://bit.ly/4bebWIe

One neglected cost of the war in Iran: the US is revealing a ton of its once-secret military capabilities to foreign adversaries like China and Russia. The longer the war drags on, the more chance for observation, and the greater the likelihood of devising countermeasures

Deep space precision strike

In 2023, I wrote a public report that provided a first look at the Russian military-medical system in Ukraine and the issues it faced. Here's an update on our research at CNA on Russian Military Medical Adaptation in the Russia-Ukraine War. See our poster here: www.cna.org/quick-looks/... 1/2

Visit to the Île Longue Operational Base. On Monday, 2 March 2026, the President of the Republic visited the Île Longue operational base.

Official translation of French President Macron’s Monday, 2 March speech on nuclear deterrence www.elysee.fr/en/emmanuel-...

"U.a. forderten die Bundesländer, den Schwellenwert von
500.000 versorgten Einwohnern auf 150.000 zu senken. [...] In ländlichen Regionen wird der Schwellenwert selten erreicht."

shorturl.at/JCOXj

As the US leadership wanes, middle powers are stitching a patchwork order through new approaches to conflict mediation, connectivity and development, write Anthony Dworkin, @rafaelloss.bsky.social, and @jpuglierin.bsky.social. @stiftungmercator.bsky.social
👇Full Policy Brief: https://bit.ly/4ay7SC9

Welches Dach über Europa? Bodengebundene Luftverteidigung nach der Zeitenwende Russlands Einsatz von Raketen und Marschflugkörpern gegen die Ukraine zeigt, dass Europas Flug- und Raketenabwehr umfassend gestärkt werden muss. Wie das gelingen kann, und was es mit der von Deutschl...

PSA: mein @baks.bund.de Arbeitspapier zur bodengebundenen Luftverteidigung nach der Zeitenwende liefert Einordnungen zu Grundlagen und Funktionen, die auch mit Blick auf #EpicFury relevant sind:

www.baks.bund.de/de/arbeitspa...

Some quick thoughts on Macron‘s speech and the announcement of deploying parts of the French Strategic Air Force an allied territory. 👇

Suspicious minds: Why Europeans are considering their post-America nuclear options – European Council on Foreign Relations With America’s credibility eroding, Europeans are looking for alternatives to US extended nuclear deterrence. Leaders should find confidence in electorate suppo

This is very much in line with my call to evolve the French and UK nuclear postures in their hardware and software as the core of a future European strategic deterrent—amidst structural changes in US defence strategy and Trump-specific hits to US credibility:

ecfr.eu/article/susp...

Macron and German Chancellor Merz also unveiled their plans today to deepen cooperation on deterrence, including through "consultations regarding the appropriate mix of conventional, missile defence and French nuclear capabilities" and German participation in French nuclear exercises.

Who's next?

Déplacement sur la base opérationnelle de l’Ile Longue. Le Président de la République s'est rendu sur la base opérationnelle de l’Ile Longue le lundi 2 mars 2026.

French president Macron delivered his highly anticipated address on nuclear deterrence today. What he outlined concretises and operationalises the "European dimension" of French deterrence:

... une nouvelle étape de la dissuasion française : la « dissuasion avancée » www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-mac...

In the spirit of their close partnership as set out in Article 4 of the Treaty of Aachen, France and Germany have decided to enter into closer cooperation in the field of deterrence in response to the evolving threat landscape. France and Germany have established a high-ranking nuclear steering group that will act as a bilateral framework for doctrinal dialogue and the coordination of strategic cooperation, including consultations regarding the appropriate mix of conventional, missile defence and French nuclear capabilities. France and Germany have agreed to take first concrete steps beginning this year, including German conventional participation in French nuclear exercises and joint visits to strategic sites as well as development of conventional capabilities with European partners. France and Germany will also increase their ability, as Europeans, to manage escalation beneath the nuclear threshold – in particular in the fields of Early Warning and Air Defense and Deep Precision Strike.

This Franco-German cooperation is based on the shared understanding that the nuclear dimension of deterrence remains a cornerstone of European security, relying on US extended deterrence, including US nuclear weapons forward-deployed to Europe, and on the independent strategic nuclear forces of France and the United Kingdom, which have a deterrent role of their own and contribute significantly to the overall security of the Alliance. This Franco-German cooperation will add to, not substitute for, NATO’s nuclear deterrence and NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangements, to which Germany contributes and will continue to contribute. France and Germany will continue to comply with their obligations under international law including the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. In light of their strong commitment to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty and Art. 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union, Franco-German cooperation aims at strengthening the systems of collective security both countries belong to. It aims at enhancing Europe’s security as a whole. Special attention will be given to coordination with the United States, the United Kingdom, other Allies and NATO.

Joint declaration of President Macron and Chancellor Merz on closer Franco-German cooperation in the field of deterrence in response to the evolving threat landscape of 2 March 2026

www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/such...

Any French forward nuclear deployments would be temporary. France will set up consultative mechanisms with European allies similar to the existing UK-France Nuclear Steering Group.

Effort complemented by enhanced early warning, conventional strike and air-defense capabilities.