Seats under various MRP Projections More In Common, YouGov, FindOutNow, JL Partners SNP 57 67 67 57 Labour 16 15 14 21 Conservatives 12 7 12 13 Liberal Democrats 14 9 8 8 Greens 8 11 13 11 Reform 22 20 15 19

On the topic of MRPs being effectively useless, I think the Telegraph/JL Poll messed up their own D'Hondt calculations.

The real numbers are:
SNP: 57
Labour:21
Conservatives: 13
Liberal Democrats: 8
Greens: 11
Reform: 19

This is really basic stuff.

Electoral Ward Local Government District Electoral Ward population (2021) Density (/km2) Area (km2) Belcoo and Garrison Fermanagh and Omagh 2,644 13.07 202.26 Glenelly Valley Derry City and Strabane 3,403 13.25 256.90 Torr Head and Rathlin Causeway Coast and Glens 3,597 14.21 253.11 Owenkillew Fermanagh and Omagh 2,698 14.40 187.30 Glenderg Derry City and Strabane 3,200 15.09 212.05 Belleek and Boa Fermanagh and Omagh 3,123 15.94 195.90 Florence Court and Kinawley Fermanagh and Omagh 2,883 17.61 163.75 Slemish Mid and East Antrim 3,207 17.90 179.17 Derrygonnelly Fermanagh and Omagh 2,898 18.00 160.98 Drumquin Fermanagh and Omagh 2,910 18.38 158.31

The least densely populated census areas according to the latest census: Garrison & Belcoo

When I tell people I'm from the middle of nowhere, I mean it.

trying to do a NYT-style swing map but the swings are too mad

Thanks!

I tried really hard to make our version look and feel as different to 538 as possible, but I appreciate just fully leaning into it too.

devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-pro...

National Parliament Election in Hungary today 🇭🇺 🇪🇺

Turnout as of 9 a.m. is significantly higher than in previous elections. Plotting the 2026–2022 turnout change against Fidesz–KDNP's 2022 vote share reveals no clear pattern. #Hungary

Explore live: europeelects.eu/2026/04/04/n...

Reform 35 Plaid Cymru 33 Labour 13 Greens 8 Conservatives 4 Liberal Democrats 3

The latest in our party by party analysis:

Prepping for Opposition: Reform in Wales

devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/reform-...

Seats Reform 35 Plaid Cyrmu 33 Labour 13 Green 8 Conservative 4 Lib Dem 3

Seats Reform 34 Plaid Cyrmu 34 Labour 14 Green 6 Conservative 5 Lib Dem 3

Seats Reform 32 Plaid Cyrmu 34 Labour 16 Green 7 Conservative 4 Lib Dem 3

We've got a new addition to the system to show how much uncertainty there is in this - and any - projection.

Picture 1 is our current Welsh Nowcast. Pictures 2 & 3 are the same numbers but with Random Regional Variaton added.

devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!

Devolved Elections is delighted to announce a partnership with @electheruk.bsky.social to project the number of female candidates for the upcoming Scottish and Welsh elections.

Currently, we expect Scotland to have a much more even gender split than Wales.

devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/devolve...

We think that projection is a touch dramatic. There's plenty of room in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd for a Green from the Swansea end and Lib Dem from Powys.

bsky.app/profile/devo...

The legacy of ‘cash for ash’ in Northern Ireland: instrumental, cultural, and myth perspectives This article examines the progress made in reforming the Northern Ireland Civil Service in the wake of the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal and resulting inquiry. It uses Northern Ireland Audit Off...

Resharing my new article “The legacy of ‘cash for ash’ in Northern Ireland: instrumental, cultural, and myth perspectives”

@eoghanly.bsky.social @muirismac.bsky.social @qubelfastofficial.bsky.social @ballioloxford.bsky.social @politicsoxford.bsky.social

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Most Reform members believe non-white UK citizens born abroad should be forced or encouraged to leave, poll finds Nigel Farage’s recent efforts to woo centre-ground voters may cause tension in party’s right flank, says Hope Not Hate

Personally, I'd have gone with the fact that "one in five (22%) also supported it for non-white citizens whose parents were born in the UK" for the headline. 😱

We have a new system almost ready to go which accounts for the fact that a lot of Green voters won't have a Green candidate on the ballot.

We'll launch it once the Greens confirm which seats they're contesting. If anyone has the list please send it over!

People are welcome to make projections based on whatever method they like.

But, the entirely unsurprising claim that 25% of Labour voters prefer the SNP to Reform does not mean they will go out and vote for the SNP in places Reform have never stood a candidate!

The legacy of ‘cash for ash’ in Northern Ireland: instrumental, cultural, and myth perspectives This article examines the progress made in reforming the Northern Ireland Civil Service in the wake of the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal and resulting inquiry. It uses Northern Ireland Audit Off...

For those interested in devolution and public policy disasters, this is an interesting paper on the 'cash for ash' scandal, the RHI inquiry and what the crisis and the response to the inquiry tells us about Northern Ireland's governance #devolution #stormont

Scotland is about to demonstrate how badly FPTP performs when you through a load of parties at it, fortunately the regional list will mask it a bit.

At Westminster there is no List to hide the absurdity of these results.

Table showing results in tweet

Parliament showing results in tweet, SNP-Green needed for a majority

Our projection on the latest @moreincommonuk.bsky.social poll for May's Scottish Parliament election:

🎗️ SNP — 57
🌹 Lab — 18
🌳 Con — 12
🌱 GP — 10
🐤 LD — 12
➡️ Ref — 20
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪Other — 0

devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

The legacy of ‘cash for ash’ in Northern Ireland: instrumental, cultural, and myth perspectives This article examines the progress made in reforming the Northern Ireland Civil Service in the wake of the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal and resulting inquiry. It uses Northern Ireland Audit Off...

Delighted to see my new article, co-authored with @eoghanly.bsky.social and @muirismac.bsky.social, published today!

Title: 'The legacy of ‘cash for ash’ in Northern Ireland: instrumental, cultural, and myth perspectives'

Read it open access here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Table showing same results as in tweet. Gallagher Index of 6.54 (Medium) and Effective Number of Parties of 3.73 (High).

Parliament chart showing distribution of seats. Lib Dems decide if left or right gain majority.

Our projection for May's Senedd election based on the latest More in Common poll:

➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 25
🌹 Lab — 19
🌳 Con — 10
🐤 LD — 3
🌱 GP — 2

From devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!

Try it for yourself!

devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-pro...

www.thenational.scot/news/2583446...

Parliament chart showing seats as stated in tweet.

Table showing seats as stated in tweet.

An IrishElections projection on the latest Ireland/Thinks
Sunday Independent poll

☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 Seats
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 41
⭐ Fine Gael — 36
🟪 Social Democrats — 21
🌹 Labour — 9
🟢 Independent Ireland — 8
💬 Independent — 6
🌳 Aontú — 4
✊ PBP-S — 4
🌱 Green — 1

From irishelections.ie/general

Parliament of results

Our Projection on the latest @yougov.co.uk poll for May's Holyrood election
🎗️ SNP — 58
➡️ Ref — 24
🌹 Lab — 17
🌱 GP — 12
🌳 Con — 9
🐤 LD — 9

devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

Oh wow. Trump got a hand-me-down Nobel Peace Prize! Did you know:

It would not be the first time a Nobel laureate has given his or her medal away: in 1943 Nobel Literature laureate Knut Hamsun gave his medal to Nazi propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels.

I'll follow up.

A projection based on a remarkable @yougov.co.uk for @itvnews.bsky.social and @cardiffuni.bsky.social

🌼 PC — 40
➡️ Ref — 27
🌱 GP — 15
🌹 Lab — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3

devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

To be fair, Reform's record of picking Welsh and Scottish leaders is questionable.

One resigned after being the admin of a racist facebook page, the other was a bought-and-paid-for Russian asset.

But this just makes all the more important that voters know who they're voting for as First Minisiter.

If any other party decided not to appoint a leader for an election they could win it would be a scandal. And Reform are tied for first in our Welsh projection.

Reform may even boycott Leader's Debates rather make a decision.

devolvedelections.co.uk

Labour in pole position to win 2028 race for London Mayor, new survey reveals EXCLUSIVE: Sir Sadiq Khan’s party is on 32%, the Conservatives 20%, Reform 19%, the Greens 13% and Liberal Democrats 11%

It is very on-brand for Reform to announce their 2028 London Mayoral candidate before either their 2026 Senedd leader or 2026 Holyrood leader.

Priorities.

www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...

I believe they will be up tomorrow.

A case of continuity and change: Lab/Green/LD majority but Reform taking seats directly from the Conservatives.

Bexley & Bromley being Reform's most likely seat.

The Greens best bet is North East (Hackney, Islington & Waltham Forest) but that's a long shot