Well, this is why you work tirelessly for years on cultivating alliances and building support for even the tiniest military operation.

This is such a fun position.

Pro-American Kurdish Forces Are Preparing Possible Iran Incursion

As with any Trump admin policy—what is the policy goal here?

Phrased another way: if the Trump objective was total and absolute region-wide chaos, would you have done anything differently?

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/u...

1) Long and vague timeline for operation (Iraq originally also was supposed to last mere weeks)

2) No real end goal, off ramp, or exit strategy at all.

This seems like a maximalist war aim war preventively launched at a regime willing to do anything to hold on.

@nytimes.com

I think this war is an illegal disaster that will just lead to needless deaths but I really, really hope I am wrong and that the future is bright and peaceful for Iranians.

If the US is at war and under attack, will NATO invoke Article V? Seems pretty clear that it should be in case of war. Perhaps this explains Canada PM’s statement of support?

But this is also not a legal war according to domestic or international law so what are NATO allies’ legal obligations?

In retrospect, the fact that they tried to rename the Department of Defense the Department of War was a pretty
clear sign. This is not a subtle administration.

This is so good. All the key points about the role of energy in intervention here.

I had forgotten! But surely ORHA and CPA was in the works well ahead of time, no? Not sure what’s going on with Venezuela but seems much less involved.

I wonder what will happen if Rodriguez pushes back on US. Will Trump follow through on threat. Would he do regime change to ensure access to oil?

Venezuela Live Updates: U.S. Forces Seize Two Tankers; Rubio Lays Out Plan for Venezuela

Rubio seems to indicate that there will be some regime change but not sure what the “transition plan” that will include opposition parties will look like. Can’t imagine Rodriguez will be thrilled.

The more they say, the more questions I have.

www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01...

The Maduro Regime Without Maduro A political scientist explains how the Venezuelan President ran the country, why he was so unpopular, and, after his seizure by the Trump Administration, who might take over.

I thought this was great and very informative.

The Maduro Regime Without Maduro www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a...

The Maduro Regime Without Maduro A political scientist explains how the Venezuelan President ran the country, why he was so unpopular, and, after his seizure by the Trump Administration, who might take over.

I thought this was great and very informative.

The Maduro Regime Without Maduro www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a...

Nationalism, Collaboration, and Resistance: France under Nazi Occupation Abstract. Does nationalism produce resistance to foreign military occupation? The existing literature suggests that it does. Nationalism, however, also can lead to acquiescence and even to active coll...

Great point—and I have no idea what the relationship is between the military and the new civilian leadership. I also do not totally understand structure of popular preferences in Venezuela. All of these will shape likelihood of collaboration with the imperial power.

direct.mit.edu/isec/article...

Trump made a clear choice: return to petro-imperialism Trump made a clear choice: return to petro-imperialism. To understand what just happened in Venezuela, look at oil politics and U.S. foreign policy.

Agreed! So not entirely clear that FIRC research applies, right? I’m working out thoughts in real time but I think @jeffcolgan.bsky.social is right to frame as return to imperialism.

Also agree with @dhnexon.bsky.social bringing in Lake indirect rule book here.

goodauthority.org/news/trump-m...

Absolutely—for FIRCs. Is this a FIRC? What’s a comparison case? It’s not Panama or even Libya. Is literally anyone in the regime besides Maduro different? So many of the mechanisms rely on things like the military turning on the new regime or the bureaucracy being nonexistent.

Statebuilding by Imposition by Reo Matsuzaki | Hardcover | Cornell University Press How do modern states emerge from the turmoil of undergoverned spaces? This is the question Reo Matsuzaki ponders in Statebuilding by Imposition. Comparing Taiwan and the Philippines under the colonial...

I’m thinking of Reo Matzuzaki’s book and specifically his discussion of Japan in Taiwan. What if Venezuelan elites (military and gov) collaborate?

www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...

I wonder a bit about the applicability of existing research to this case. Is this even a regime change? Trump cares very little about norms so there will likely be coercion and repression. This might be horrendous for the Venezuelan people but lead to some neocolonial stability.

I wrote about the violence reaching the capital of Mali @goodauth.bsky.social

- Peacebuilding failed
- This doesn’t mean all interventions are doomed, just under some conditions (even in Mali!)
- Not too late for international community to think creatively about helping civilians in Mali

The Islamist siege in Mali, explained A closer look at the current Malian instability, and the limits of international peacebuilding.

Mali's Islamist siege, explained by @wnomikos.bsky.social in
@goodauth.bsky.social .
goodauthority.org/news/mali-is...

EPISODE 3.5: How the UN Keeps Peace Among Neighbors, with William G. Nomikos — Scope Conditions Podcast Today on Scope Conditions, what’s the secret to successful peacekeeping? We often think of civil conflict as being driven by organized, armed groups – like rebel militias and state armies. But as our...

🎧 Interview with @yangyangzhou.bsky.social and @alanjacobs.bsky.social on @scopeconditions.bsky.social: www.scopeconditionspodcast.com/episodes/how...

📺 Recording of book talk at @stanfordcisac.bsky.social with introduction by Steve Stedman: youtu.be/IPbFKR_eEco?...

Local Peace, International Builders Cambridge Core - UN and International Organisations - Local Peace, International Builders

📕 Local Peace, International Builders is available OPEN ACCESS for download @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org: doi.org/10.1017/9781...

➡️ The supplemental book website is here: www.williamgnomikos.com/local-peace

William Nomikos, author of Local Peace, International Builders, holding a copy of the book and a plaque for the APSA Experiments Section Best Book Award.

Still absolutely floored that my book, Local Peace, International Builders, received the APSA Experiments Section Best Book award!

The book uses field, survey, and natural experiments to test a new theory of peacebuilding, which I develop formally in the book.

👇 Access links

New data release from the Deportation Data Project:

Every ICE arrest, detainer request, and book-in to detention nationwide between September 1, 2023 and October 15, 2025.

deportationdata.org/news/2025-12...

“It feels illegal.”

I have no idea what’s going on with US foreign policy. What a dangerous disaster. Just total chaos. I can’t believe it’s just year 1.

Very clear to know what to do for next shutdown fight but, since GOP obviously won’t fund subsidies, Dems *should* pick the same fight and have as a goal for Republicans to nuke the filibuster. The problem is that even if that’s issued as a direct threat to GOP, Dems won’t have credibility.

Good luck with the dictatorship my guy. Doesn’t matter how corrupt or abusive you are if people have had enough and are willing to make those preference clear.

Keep it up everyone!

Gelman’s answer is essentially “no under most reasonable scenarios.” Worth the full read for the nuance.