Why we need to explore conflict and competition around solar geoengineering In an increasingly aggressive international political environment, solar geoengineering needs to be reconceptualized – not only as a response to climate change, but as an instrument of power. This con...

journals.plos.org/climate/arti...

Two planes, one marked US one marked China, flying above the earth creating aerosol plumes.

IR scholars have called for risk research around SRM to move beyond purely comparing geophysical risks, to also factoring in conflictual geopolitics. This is the only way to ensure research can support effective governance discussions around this world shaping technology. Paper linked in thread.

The security blind spot: Cascading climate impacts and tipping points threaten national security | IPPR The new UK government has initiated a Strategic Defence Review and is undertaking a review of national resilience. Security threats resulting from climate

www.ippr.org/articles/sec...

www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Governments are planning for war. Meanwhile, two new studies show AMOC collapse could be the bigger threat. Weakening of over 50% by 2100 is expected, with an irreversible tipping point as early as mid-century. As we noted in the Security Blind Spot report, security infrastructure isn't prepared.

Collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation would lead to substantial oceanic carbon release and additional global warming - Communications Earth & Environment The collapse of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation would result in increase of 47-83 ppm of global mean atmospheric carbon dioxide and 0. 2 °C of additional global warming at higher carb...

www.nature.com/articles/s43...

Picture of blue ocean waves.

A new study by PIK shows AMOC collapse would flip the Southern Ocean from carbon sink to carbon source, adding ~0.2°C of warming. That's on top of wherever temperatures already are when it happens. Tipping points risks cascade in ways that are often under-appreciated. Link in thread.

Watch the full episode - www.youtube.com/watch?v=wugk...

“Chaos caused by climate extremes and worsening consequences of climate change can actually begin to get in the way of acting on climate change.”

SCRI Executive Director @laurielaybourn.bsky.social spoke on PBS Weathered about derailment risk.

Stronger ENSO-induced global SST variability in a warming climate - Nature Communications The authors show that El Niño’s influence on global sea surface temperatures is projected to intensify in a warming climate due to stronger wind-driven teleconnections and larger air-sea humidity differences.

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Journal article screenshot. Title: Stronger ENSO-induced global SST variability in a warming climate Abstract: The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a leading mode of interannual climate variability with far-reaching global impacts. Understanding how ENSO-driven changes evolve in a warming climate is essential to project future climate variability. Here, we show that climate models robustly project an amplification of ENSO’s influence on global sea surface temperature (SST) under greenhouse warming. This amplification is primarily driven by two factors: changes in El Niño-induced surface wind speed and alterations in the climatological air-sea humidity difference. The former is linked to enhanced atmospheric teleconnections associated with ENSO, while the latter stems from an overall increase in global SST. Our findings suggest that future El Niño events may exert stronger regional climate impacts, not only through intensified atmospheric teleconnections but also by reinforcing local air-sea interactions.

El Niño already causes floods, droughts, and crop failures worldwide. A new paper shows warming makes each shock stronger, not (just) because El Niño changes, but because a hotter world is more sensitive. Link in thread.

"Climate change is not this slow moving thing that will evolve smoothly - it is now."

SCRI Executive Director @laurielaybourn.bsky.social spoke with We Don't Have Time after the UK National Emergency Briefing.

Global record-shattering breadbasket droughts emerge from moderately extreme regional events - Nature Communications The study shows that global record shattering droughts across major maize producing regions become more likely this century and typically arising from concurrent moderately extreme droughts rather tha...

3/ Link to the academic article: www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Link to the Times report: www.thetimes.com/article/3812...

2/ Meanwhile, new reporting by the Times, quoting our Director @laurielaybourn.bsky.social, highlights internal UK government analysis showing that Britain’s food supply is ‘at risk of catastrophic failure by 2030’. Papers like the above show severe security threats which are not being addressed.

Field of dried, dead maize

1/ A global food crisis from simultaneous maize droughts doesn't need any region to break its own record. Moderately severe stress across several regions at once is enough. A new paper puts those odds above 50% this century.

"We've got to map out that new contract between all of us to deal with the fact that that golden age of stability is now gone and will not come back."

Laurie Laybourn joins the Big Debate on the Meet The Farmers podcast to discuss food security.

📺 Watch: www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjjU...

Live Discussion: Could Solar Geoengineering Help Prevent AMOC Collapse? Join SRM360 for a live discussion on the AMOC, the risk of its collapse, and the potential impacts of solar geoengineering (SRM).

Sign-up and read our primer on the topic here: srm360.org/event/could-...

Event promo banner "Live Discussion: Could Solar Geoengineering Help Prevent AMOC Collapse?" 24 March 2026 featuring Laurie Laybourn, John Moore, David Thornalley

The AMOC is one of the most significant earth system tipping points. Solar geoengineering might help slow its collapse, but evidence is uncertain. Our Director @laurielaybourn.bsky.social joins an @srm360.bsky.social panel tomorrow (1400 UK) to discuss. Sign up via the link in the comments.

The El Niño cometh The latest models show a much greater change of a strong – or even super – El Nino developing later this year

See this piece by @hausfath.bsky.social for the latest modelling analysis: substack.com/home/post/p-...

Picture of an orange skyline with glowing sun amidst the clouds. (Image credit: Chuchart duangdaw via Getty Images)

El Niño forecasts for late 2026 are worth tracking, less for the direct impacts than for how a severe event interacts with other systemic pressures. Linear risk thinking won't capture this.

"Just one energy shock of the scale that we saw in 2022 costs about the same as it would cost to get the whole country to net zero."

SCRI executive director @laurielaybourn.bsky.social tells LBC wars will keep having an outsized impact on UK without urgent improvements in food/energy resilience.

Intensifying global heat threatens livability for younger and older adults Intensifying global heat threatens livability for younger and older adults, Parsons, L A, Baldwin, J W, Guzman-Echavarria, G, Jay, O, Kalmus, P, Staudmyer, H, Vanos, J K, Wolff, N H

Read the full report here: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

Screenshot of abstract of an academic article titled "Intensifying global heat threatens livability for younger and older adults" L A Parsons*, J W Baldwin, G Guzman-Echavarria, O Jay, P Kalmus, H Staudmyer, J K Vanos and N H Wolff Published 10 March 2026 • © 2026 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd Environmental Research: Health, Volume 4, Number 1 Citation L A Parsons et al 2026 Environ. Res.: Health 4 015013 DOI 10.1088/2752-5309/ae3c3a Abstract Heat exposure presents a growing threat to human health and well-being, particularly for vulnerable populations. Here, we employ a human heat balance model - specifically the human/environmental adaptation and threshold limit model (HEAT-Lim) - to estimate, globally, where ambient temperature and humidity already limit ‘livability’, or the level of physical activity that a person can safely sustain without experiencing an uncontrolled rise in body temperature. Specifically, we use hourly ERA5-Land reanalysis data to assess historical (1950–2024) livability limitations for partially acclimated healthy, younger (age 18–40 years) and older (age >65 years) adults in the shade. We also examine the number of hours/year in which physical activity should be limited to light-to-moderate intensity (e.g., sitting, walking, light housework) to avoid uncontrollable rises in core body temperature.

"Unlivable heat" for significant numbers of people is already here. New research quantifies the rise in conditions where the body cannot cope. The cascading risks for labour, economies, and migration are significant and are currently missing from mainstream approaches to risk assessment.

We need a global assessment of avoidable climate-change risks To understand the urgency of emissions reductions, policymakers and citizens need a full analysis of what is at stake.

See the full article here: www.nature.com/articles/d41...

Title of Nature publication with headline "We need a global assessment of avoidable climate-change risks" and subtitle "To understand the urgency of emissions reductions, policymakers and citizens need a full analysis of what is at stake". Picture showing people walking through a flooded street.

Last month, experts led by the UK Met Office called for an international climate risk assessment While the IPCC gives us the science, it doesn’t give us a full picture of the worst cases our societies now face. As climate impacts worsen, this gap is becoming impossible to ignore.

Global Warming Has Accelerated Significantly During the last decade, the rate at which Earth warmed increased substantially After removing the influence of known natural variability factors, the increase of the warming rate is statistically...

Access the full paper here: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

Yearly average global mean surface temperature from five data sources, in two versions: (top) unadjusted, (bottom) adjusted for El Niño/Southern Oscillation, volcanism, and solar variation. All are aligned so that the average from 1991 to 2020 equals 0.88°C, to approximate warming since pre-industrial. Both show and accelerating trend.

New research has stripped out El Niño and other natural variability to confirm what many climate scientists fear: global heating is accelerating. If mainstream models have been underestimating the rate, we're looking at far more severe impacts, far sooner than most planning assumes.

This Is How the World Ends According to Science YouTube video by PBS Terra

How can we avoid the end of the world? Well, it all starts with planning...

That's what our Director, Laurie Laybourne, discussed with Maiya May on PBS.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=wugk...

‘You can’t eat electricity’: how rural solar farms became the latest battlefront in Britain’s culture war Reform UK is exploiting opposition to solar panels – but most farmers are more worried about climate change.

92%: the percentage of funding for Nigel Farage's far-right political party Reform UK that comes from fossil fuel interests.

Across the world, anyone blaming immigrants, etc, it's all just a smokescreen to allow the rich to keep on getting richer by killing our planet.
share.google/W2gwfc0XVpUy...