Number one overall QBs (and Fernando Mendoza who is going to be the first pick) and their career point rating along with percentiles. Mendozas point rating ranks in the ~89th percentile of drafted QBs since 2008, and in a normal range of previous 1st picks. Send the card in!
Most PFF Wins Above Average (WAA) among Safeties in the PFF Era:
1. Caleb Downs - 1.23
2. Jordan Battle - 1.09
3. K'Von Wallace - 0.81
4. RJ Mickens - 0.79
5. Dillon Thieneman - 0.77
6. Emmanuel McNeil-Warren - 0.76
A look at the average and total Approximate Value added to the team that drafted the player by college. Not saying the college matters after they get to a NFL camp but still an interesting look nonetheless!
Looking at CPOE by pass depth, but instead of QBs its WRs when they are targeted. These are the ~top 12 WRs in the draft based on consensus boards. Bryce Lance as a deep threat🔥
Unlocking new levels of sore tomorrow morning
Looking at draft QBs and how often they put the ball "into play" under pressure (so aimed passes regardless of outcome. No sacks or scrambles). Miller Moss and Garrett Nussmeier lead the way with putting balls in play under pressure, with Nussmeier having the higher CPOE
Finally here is a link to my Buy Me A Coffee if you wanted to support the work that went into this. With a little baby on the way, my wife and I would greatly appreciate any coffees we can get😅
buymeacoffee.com/cfbnumbers
[3/4]
Here is an example of a card and a direct link to the cards! 100% free to download
dropbox.com/scl/fi/bjxet...
[2/4] Here is the article that shows how we got here and what the cards will contain:
cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/gotta-draf...
Not an April Fools joke!! My 2026 NFL Draft cards are now LIVE and ready to go! The cards have everything from little blurbs based on film study to stats and other fun things! Its 100% free! Ill link an article explaining it further + the draft guide link [1/4]🧵
I wanna be the very best, like no one ever was
Have to finalize some numbers but im doing a draft guide that is Pokemon cards for the ~top 40 prospects (atm, maybe ill get to 50 if there is interest!)
If this interests you let me know! Should be good to go early next week!
In a way yeah, it shows you can be effective without needing too much in terms of scheme
This graph shows how valuable a QB was in his career (y axis), and how much his offense used things like play action, screens RPOs etc. (X axis). Mendoza in a fine spot on both axis
Assembling a dresser with a hurt back
Working on some things
Meant to put draft prospects since the 2020 cycle so they wouldn't have been included. Both near the top of both metrics
Comparing my QB point rating system to Next Gen Stats Production Score (0.52 R2 among QBs since 2008 for those interested). Both systems have Fernando Mendoza clearly above the rest of the QB class
Another installment of Game Managers and Gunslingers, including the 2026 draft class. Things like ADOT, throwing past the sticks create the gunslinging metric, while comp %/negative play rate shape the game manager metric. This class features 0 QBs in the top right quadrant
The most important piece of draft information out there: The top 40 prospects (by consensus board) by what Pokemon they are close to in height and weight (removing duplicate use of Pokemon)
I haven't watched that much Iheanachor tbh I have seen a lot of people mock him to the Lions tho
Post Combine Mock Draft for (once again) the laughs and also the giggles
Im trying really hard to "see it" with Arvell Reese's pass rush abilities and im just not seeing it
For combine week I am highlighting the best Ironman competitors by position (guys that completed each drill in this table) using average percentile grouped by position
The model is built to look at QBs so I excluded drops for that reason. Just using the same data but looking at WRs just out of curiosity
This is the top 15 WRs in CPOE when targeted. Pretty decent list
Looking at completion percentage over expectation and average depth of target, but from the WRs perspective. Carnell Tate lands in the top 5 in CPOE when targeted among WRs drafted in the first 2 rounds since the 2017 draft class
I kinda get it tho past the first round i feel like im focusing solely on tools and hoping the coaching staff can get him in a decent spot
2026 NFL Draft QB prospects completion percentage over expectation by how far they threw the football down the field. Capped at 40 yards because its wonky after that. Yes that is Cole Payton and NDSU you are seeing👀
The arm pat is killing me man i cant stop rewatching