An uncalibrated #MMM can get ROAS direction wrong, not just magnitude. We walk through prior predictive checks, ROAS parametrization, saturation likelihoods, and where lift tests break down.
Full recording available on youtube : dub.sh/oAjXCiG
#MMMCalibration #BayesianModeling
Our final programme for our three-day festival in Edinburgh. Tickets are still available for most of the sessions! www.tickettailor.com/events/scotl...
I’ll just leave this here
Calling it a “budget crisis” tends to make the destruction of capacity—closures, understaffing, deferred maintenance—appear as the responsible form of settlement, which is the upside-down austerity world that neoliberal governance has taught us to accept.
5/
Good point, I think I meant ‘different’. Didn’t mean to imply they are mutually exclusive.
Even with a JG there will be people who can’t work, so I don’t think the JG advocates want them to starve.
If you’ve been interested in universal basic income, then you need to know about this alternative… the Job Guarantee.
Read the details of how it would work here.
Paywalled article?
MMTUK has launched
We're a new, independent research organisation bringing Modern Monetary Theory to UK policy debates.
Our first paper launches later this month: a fully-costed UK Job Guarantee proposal.
mmtuk.org #MMT #UKPolitics
Brain metaphor and brain theory. youtu.be/zhmmNunhpLI?...
What is a computer? youtu.be/HgCt8Igelco?...
I’d the brain a computer? Straw man argument. youtu.be/m3-mGbXOhVY?...
Is the brain a computer: wrong level of analysis youtu.be/kNbTTAEGEKw?...
Ex-cognitive scientist faculty here. This is hotly contested, and most people I know think that that article is a joke.
If you’ve previously written off LLM’s as hype-based hallucinators, you might be forgiven, based on the early models.
But that view isn’t accurate any more. Current versions are seriously impressive. Pay attention to what us scientists and coders are reporting.
youtu.be/PctlBxRh0p4?...
Here’s a post I wrote about The Illusion of Explanatory Depth drbenvincent.medium.com/the-illusion... (but also sneaks in some #mmt)
When I hear “LLMs are just guessing words,” I think “Bayes is just arithmetic.” True at one level - yet it misses the emergent capabilities.
Scotland’s Economics Festival is a unique, public-facing celebration of economic thinking – designed to challenge, inform, and inspire. Edinburgh 19th- 21st March 2026. www.scoteconfest.org/. Tickets are available now. Speakers include 🎤
Introducing: The Bayesian Marketing Analytics Course by PyMC Labs.
Stop guessing if your ROI is real or just market noise. Master uncertainty-aware decision rules and causal inference in a course led by #PyMC lead practitioners.
Join our February cohort: dub.link/AHtL0NY
Amazing 🤩 Will try to review and provide input as family holiday time allows.
It’s not yet in CausalPy, but I’m hoping @nathanielforde.bsky.social might implement it in 2026 🤞
It’s a complex topic, with multiple schools of thought. But MMT seems the most engaged with empirically understanding the actual mechanics of how money works.
I’m not convinced by the fractional reserve story. Commercial bank money comes with a corresponding liability so there’s no net increase in the private sector.
There’s also high powered central bank reserve money. But you are right, there are layers and hierarchies of money, so it’s not like so money comes from the central bank. But I’m absolutely not convinced governments need to go and find money before they can spend it.
Genuine question. Where do you think money comes from?
