Figure shows industrial policy, manufacturing employment, and TFP growth. Each bubble represents a country. The x-axis shows the average industrial policy intensity over the 2002-2019 period. The y-axis shows the change in manufacturing employment share (left panel) and the log change in TFP (right panel), on average, over the same period. Industrial policies are a key feature of many countries running persistent trade surpluses. This column develops a framework to examine how industrial policies shape global imbalances and asks whether countries should worry about trade deficits, in the context of the ‘Second China Shock’ affecting mostly innovation-intensive high-tech sectors. The findings suggest that countries negatively affected by global imbalances should include industrial and innovation policies as part of their policy toolkit.

A Cesa-Bianchi, @apferrero.bsky.social @lucafornaro.bsky.social & M Wolf examine how industrial policies shape global imbalances. Countries negatively affected by those imbalances should include industrial and innovation policies as part of their policy toolkit.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
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Jimmy Kimmel Live! suspended indefinitely after host’s Charlie Kirk comments ABC says late-night show will not air for foreseeable future after Kimmel accused Republicans of ‘doing everything they can to score political points’ from Kirk’s killing

Free speech only when convenient

www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio...

Nuffield Postdoctoral Research Fellowships Deadline: Tuesday, 30 September 2025

If you expect to finish your Phd (in Econ and related fields) within the next academic year, consider applying to the Nuffield post-doc economics.web.ox.ac.uk/nuffield-pos... (deadline 30 September)

One thing we learned with Trump is that it's never over...

May have been too much of a risk with the war in Ukraine

Fair enough. Completely agree on poor statement and need to stand up. But maybe this deal can buy the EU some time. We know that countries can't switch trade partners overnight. I guess I'm trying to see the positives here...

I definitely see your point but what would have happened if VdL had not compromised? I'm not focusing on the rhetoric ("biggest trade deal ever"), but on the economic costs of, say, 30% tariffs. Or do you think Trump was just bluffing? Honest question, I'm not arguing against you 🙂

Nice illustration -- using Belgium beer -- of how complicated tariffs are becoming. It is not just about the level but the uncertainty of which rate applies.

Took a long time! Hopefully y'all will find it interesting.

Join our free webinar to explore what’s new at Oxford’s September Summer School in Economics, including two brand-new courses for 2025. Hear from faculty, ask questions, and plan your next steps.
🗓 19 June | 🕤 9:30am BST
🔗 Register: shorturl.at/FtxPl

📣📣📣 New paper out 📣📣📣
With Giovanni Rosso and Roger Vicquery, we study the interplay between financial sanctions and dollar dominance focusing on how post-2014 international lending to Russia de-dollarized ($⬇) in favour of a euroization (€⬆️) ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid...
🧵👇[1/10]

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The Frontiers of Knowledge Award goes to Blanchard, Galí and Woodford in recognition of their profound influence on modern macroeconomics and the design of monetary and fiscal policy rules The BBVA Foundation Frontiers of Knowledge Awards in Economics, Finance and Management has gone in this seventeenth edition to Olivier Blanchard (Paris School of Economics and MIT), Jordi Galí (CREI a...

BBVA Foundation award to Olivier Blanchard, Jordi Gali, and Michael Woodford. Congratulations! www.frontiersofknowledgeawards-fbbva.es/noticias/fro...

Oxford University Economics Summer Schools on LinkedIn: #economics #lifelonglearning #webinar #oxforduniversity #oxfordsummerschool As we step into the New Year, it’s the perfect time to consider expanding your economic knowledge! Join us for a webinar to explore the courses offered at the…

On 21 January, I will participate in a webinar to introduce our 2025 summer schools together with an amazing group of colleagues. Do join us! www.linkedin.com/posts/oxford...

Didn't expect the defining image of 2025 to turn up quite so quickly.

America’s Forgotten Generation (of Prosperity) How and why the postwar boom got memory-holed

Just say no to the gilding of the Gilded Age, and remember the postwar boom paulkrugman.substack.com/p/americas-f...

🙋‍♂️

Italy on the other hand…

The Big Short

Congratulations!

Inflation and relative prices My last post emphasized the conceptual difference between inflation and relative prices.

Cochrane “corrected” himself with a follow up post: www.grumpy-economist.com/p/inflation-...

Are you passionate about economics? Do you want to do a master which will change your life and help you change the world. Come to the Geneva Graduate Institute!

Economists are notoriously bad at forecasting

https://go.bsky.app/DS8T3ug

I have compiled a very imperfect preliminary list of monetary/macro people I’ve found so far on this site.

If you are active in the field, feel free to DM and I’ll add you! go.bsky.app/DS8T3ug

Now arriving at #EconSky !

Several of our finest minds—> @lkatz42.bsky.social @susanathey.bsky.social @dacemoglumit.bsky.social et (many) al.!

And our top journals—> @qjeharvard.bsky.social @jpolecon.bsky.social @reveconstudies.bsky.social @aeajournals.bsky.social

Tell your colleagues it's time.

Blanchard predictions for coming years. His not too pessimistic forecast relies on Trump reneging of many of his proposals. Only area where I disagree is comparison to 2016. In 2016 stock market was cheaper than today and the global economy was still recovering - not today.