What did I miss?! We all knew the primacists stopped updating their priors in 1993. And the "restrainers" were just primacists who did a bit of math. Who else is talking shit?

I'm realizing I may have a whee bit of anger at the primacists...

What did I miss? We already knew the primacists forgot to stop updating their priors in about 1993

I think the parable of the blind men who started a campfire in the middle of a drought-stricken field despite many very loud pleas to stop, put it out, "goddammit, run" - is a bit more applicable here but I think we're largely on the same page

To be fair to us Americans, we have loads of that from that time the South tried to secede. So we've got the counterproductive idiocy thing on*lock*.

Anyone else get the sense that WSJ is about to run a story featuring insights from Tucker Carlson et al about Melania's close relationship with Epstein?

Very true and I hope you're correct in the assessment.

I have a similar thought but with reservations, of course. The biggest one is that I thought we already learned this from decades at war and few tangible wins. The second is that if Trump walks away with a deal on nukes, the public may not perceive it as much of a loss.

It will honestly just lead to an endless changing of what threats sound like. Tiktok has this type of monitoring and it's led to Clockwork Orange language changes that admittedly remain viable. Kill is now unalive. Rape is grape.

I thought you were just talking to all women for a minute. I was wondering what percentage of us can answer yes and would be honest. But I see that this was a broad indictment of our society, just not the one I thought. So I get it now.

Both good points. I can only guess on the 1, but my sense is Iran is very aware that narrative is more salient. For 2 there is a huge difference between a threatened and a demonstrated capability. And US geo position has changed so drastically, it has the option to not force open the Strait.

I think you're underestimating the degree to which Trump is concerned about anyone but the US holding strategic choke points. Iran may have judged that this actually puts more pressure on their intended target. It's possibly something they are willing to trade away (though likely not).

It's hard to think of US actions in the ME that haven't left Iran in a better position.

More seriously, what can actually be accomplished right now? The circulatory system of the global economy has an air bubble. We lost this round. Time is only on Iran's side for this engagement. End it.

From where I sit, it's probably the only option the US has unless you believe there is a military solution that will actually keep the Strait open indefinitely OR that the US can reach a deal against a regime (which is sure it has the upper hand) in a very timely fashion.

You might be right but I suspect they believe that walking away from the table is the only way to reduce Iranian leverage and open the door to negotiations with others. The US and Iran are demanding "impossible" things of each other. Iran may lose its momentum and cohesion when the US pulls back.

Most Americans feel we lost in Afghanistan and Iraq... and Vietnam. Not militarily, but politically. Korea was more of a military defeat... We won the Gulf War! The first one. Militarily. But we didn't accomplish the political ends many people thought we should have, of course.

So what's different?

Unpopular opening I think but I'm all for this thing being built. It will be impossible for Trump's Folly to be forgotten. It will loom large at state dinners. The stairs to nowhere will be a constant reminder. Get that thing built and let it weigh on US foreign policy for centuries.

The problem is that local energy sources will also be preferred (like lignite) and we're going to see a ton of infant industry protections. EU China, here we go!

I think everyone is talking to different "goals." I follow a ton of analysts, so my example is that many people take on a "policy-making" pov. But, like, a lot of people just want to bs and talk. No one has context clues so we all think we're having the same conversation and... We're not.

So if you're in a wealthy country, don't flip out and stockpile. But do worry about the incredible impact elsewhere. And yeah, this is going to suck. The question is how much.

I agree that MOST shouldn't freak out... But you're taking a topline analysis and running with it. There are already shortages around the world. We are looking at major supply chain disruption, inflation, lower crop yield, It's going to take many months to play out. That's if Hormuz opens today.

Ignore him. It is. And for so many reasons.

But I feel the same way.

To be fair, seeing the global superpower Leeroy Jenkins into the Middle East for the third... Forth? Should we count...? Anyway the nth time in a handful of decades does leave me feeling kind of concused.

Is it realistic to think the US could eliminate this threat given how easy it appears to be to build, move, and fire it's drones combined with the coastal geography? Or could escorts handle drones pretty well?

Agreed, thanks for clarifying.

I agree with everything you said above except I'm curious if/why you think Israel might strike past a US pullback. In my view, Trump will be very anxious to "end" the acute phase of this and still holds the leverage and some of the tactical needs for maintaining the campaign.

I hear Trump has a special technology to summon Diet Coke to his desk. Maybe we can throw that in?

There are people who make knowing the intricate details of what happens when X happens their whole career. I feel like the Trump admin is knocking them off one by one. Best wishes to the Hormuz guys.

And yes, I'm aware of the irony.

Yes please. Strawman doesn't seem to cut it. I love what I can learn here but every third post is about an ill defined "they" that is intellectually dishonest.

I disagree but I will concede that the type of coverage needed to sustain public attention doesn't come easily and the opposition lacks this ability to sustain comms.