#Bitcoin is in a DCA zone (hedge against a 60k bottom). However it does not appear the bottom is in yet.
In other words... If you buy now, then that Bitcoin will wait longer to be profitable. If you wait to buy, you are more likely to get more Bitcoin - but that comes with some risk.
Ides of March update!
We have been rejected off the 46 Day SMA (shown in green) ever since the move down. That means more lows until we can make the moving average support again.
I expect a low anytime between now and September. Though a Fall capitulation is not out of the ordinary.
Are we there yet!?
Nope. Not according to my indicator (lower pane), which has not yet flashed a buy signal for #BTC.
We likely will see a relief rally back up to 78k before we hit our final bear market low. We don't know yet what the final low will be, but 56k seems reasonable.
Before we can have a big bust, we need to have a big boom. 2026 is gonna be spectacular.
Look for investments that support big tech - materials (copper), infrastructure (networks), and modern energy. Higher risk but big payoffs possible in robotics (healthcare, manufacturing).
#Bitcoin relief rally underway. Here comes your exit liquidity. Target is 98,500 - 101,500 USD. Look for market low late summer.
I hope everyone has a happy and healthy holidays. All the best success in 2026! Will 2026 be the year the #Bitcoin cycle is broken? We may have a shortened and more-shallow bear market this time. Either way, I'll send out a note when it's time to start DCA'ing back in. For now, enjoy and relax!
Jason Pizzino - suggests when low may occur. youtu.be/o50OlLdfZb0?...
This lines up with my estimate of 140-148 days after the first major low, with a possible low of 52,750k USD.
Last cycle multiple bankruptcies drove the price lower which hopefully won't happen this time.
PlanB suggests #Bitcoin has entered a 'new market' rather than a 'bear market' due to institutional buying and selling behavior.
(Institutions maintain a 'percentage of portfolio' as they buy lower and sell higher vs. retail buys at extremes (lows and highs).)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=EGDR...
#Bitcoin relief rally. Trend is down - but price movement is positive.
#BTC is challenging the 30-day moving average next. The last time we lost the 30D MA was at 114k. We've been below since. The 5-day MA generally indicates weakness when below the 30-day and strength when above.
#Bitcoin attempting to push through sell wall. For now, a higher low has been set, but downside trend remains.
#Bitcoin selling pressure remains despite building a constructive base, as long as we are above 90,340k.
To move higher we need a catalyst to liquidate shorts in the 91.5-95k range. Until then, downside pressure remains.
Holding this moving average is critical for continued rebound. (Shown is a 56-period SMA for the 5-Hour timeframe.) Positive that we pushed up above, but we need to confirm and move higher. We're re-testing at the moment.
In 2021 after #Bitcoin broke below the 400-Day SMA, we fell another 27%. If we copy/paste that correction to the current move, it would take us down to the 74k range. Which coincidentally is our April 2025 low.
If we do hit 74k, I'm buying back in. Then will take profit if we hit the 400-Day again
#Bitcoin rebounding from here is going to be a big stretch. No real catalyst at the moment. Recovery to 98k is your next exit opportunity.
Global market hits 8 Fear and Greed... This is a normal correction.
youtu.be/PY6jXnpXs3Y?...
#Bitcoin Magazine Pro 'officially' calls start of Bear Market. With the expectation of a relief rally to 100k range (50-week SMA). Matt made his last 'buy the dip' trade on this most recent low.
youtu.be/kc95QvVzmfM?...
#Bitcoin Fear and Greed hits lowest level since 24-Feb-2025 (11). 30% of Bitcoin held is at a loss. Historically these lowest levels are reserved for 'bear market lows'.
For comparison, 35% Bitcoin held at a loss Summer 2021. Fear and Greed was at 6 June 2022. Chart courtesy Coinglass.
Just a what if... Projected #Bitcoin low target based on Jan-April price action = 86k.
This all depends on whether we lose 96k which is the short-term holder cost basis. Capitulation will accelerate the further down we go. All eyes will be on short term holder action.
Glassnode reports, "At $96K, nearly 99% of investors who accumulated #Bitcoin within the past 155 days are now holding at a loss." 📉https://glassno.de/47GyFfn
The one good news we have at this point is that the dips are being bought up. Our 'hyperliquid' whale 40x'd LONG #BTC at $96155 (2.4M).
#Bitcoin 400-Day simple moving average has flipped from support to resistance.
If #Bitcoin closes below 100k today, this will be the first close with such negative price-action since March 2023 'US banking crisis' scare.
Meanwhile our 'hyperliquid' whale has switched bearish with 20x (2mil) and 40x (6mil) shorts. At some point he will be right. This time?
If #Bitcoin is gonna bounce this would be a great area to do it.
We have our #Bitcoin range. Momentum is continuing downward.
Our favorite leveraged whale keeps getting liquidated and trying again - now back in with 40x leverage at 103k (and 25x leverage on #Ethereum). Over 137k traders were liquidate in the last 24hrs ($434.08M).
Our favorite whale just 40X'd Long #Bitcoin and 20X'd Long #Ethereum 3mil each trade. 106k is the level to watch today.
Coinglass reports the same whale just went 20x LONG leverage on #Bitcoin and #Ethereum (approx 3mil each trade) and at the same time went 5X SHORT on Solana to cover losses should we pull back. Seems nobody knows which way this is going.
200-Day is at 110k, below that has risk of rejection.
Even with all the selling, there are still large accounts willing to 10x and 20x Long #Bitcoin in the 100-101k range. Unfortunately this adds fuel to downside liquidation.
This time is not like April 2025. No immediate recovery for #Bitcoin. More red ahead.
4-hour view of Bitcoin bearish momentum. Relief rally in play.
Daily view. Bitcoin cools off and touches bull/bear line (as it did in April 2025). We need another day to determine if this is an actual bounce or simply a 'relief'.
#BTC You should always prepare for best and worst case scenario. Yes, the trajectory is down. But we can expect bear-market rallies.
Knowing that, Tuesday was an over-reaction and Wednesday is 'reverting to the mean' and rally (small or big, we don't know). Thursday will tell us the direction.
One analyst I follow (Chris @ TheTechnicalTraders) thinks Bitcoin is too risky here, current price action is more like March 2025 and is in a broadening wedge. Chris says we could see a relief rally to 130k but then a move lower before the final blowoff top. I tend to trust his risk-averse advice.
So the big question I have is: Is this time like April 2025?
In April we hit a low on Monday and then confirmed on Wednesday which was a big day up.
That would put this Tuesday as a low and then confirming on Thursday with a big day up. We should know soon if we are repeating, or further down.