Nothing is certain except:
- death
- taxes
- posterior intervals with overly narrow priors

Screenshot of grid of some of my quarto extensions in a grid layout

If you are doing any #quarto slidecrafting, i have been trying really hard to keep this page updated with everything I have done
emilhvitfeldt.com/project/slid...

I had to Google what they looked like, and... I don't this a see though fish can be any cuter?

This is hilarious

Uber CTO says AI spending plans fall short as tools like Claude Code drive costs up Uber's AI strategy hits financial roadblock as costs surge

Yes, I am biased, but this is why, in my opinion, Apple won the AI race without being part of it 🧵👇🏼

"It's the economy, stupid."

www.indiatoday.in/technology/s...

In ML, everyone’s Humpty Dumpty
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/04/17/i...

„The only remaining way to mitigate this situation is to reduce the number of applications.“

They’ve tried nothing and are all out of ideas? Whether this is good or bad, it is unjustified. There is no impact analysis, no engagement with research on funding procedures. Government by vibes

Holy... hope you have a swift and complete recovery! 🙏

Setup with s()?

I suspect that only controls what is returned by ranef().

PhD Student in Meta-Science and Clinical Psychology - Universität Bern Universität Bern is looking for PhD Student in Meta-Science and Clinical Psychology

I’m hiring a PhD student!

The candidate will work alongside @zefreeman.bsky.social, who is joining our research group as postdoc.

jobs.unibe.ch/job-vacancie...

With a ridiculous amount of mustard, a knish and some slaw? Hell yeah... 🤤

Six quilted hexagons that look like the tidyverse hex sticker

Staring at my mother-in-law's quilt... it feels very... #tidy...
#rstats

Same 😁
Thanks for the explanation!

All R²=.999

It's an interesting paper.
But don't these R² values look odd? All but the census data models are like this...

Actually openness meditates the effect of conscientiousness!

But there's a lot of research showing that grant decisions are unreliable and a widespread feeling that the way to win is to just roll the dice often enough. So, this may not be a very selective way to reduce submissions.

I was gonna say that my sandwiches typically aren't symmetrical, but when I actually wrote it out they kind of are?

Bread (top)
Spicy spread
Raw vegetables
Cheeses (optional)
Meats (optional)
Cooked vegetables (optional)
Creamy spread
Bread (bottom)

Unless...

tomato = diag(p)

I feel like that requires a tomato matrix.

When you just want heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors, but AI thinks you're hungry for baked goods.

#rstats

Inspired: Skill.PhD

Science is a cumulative and collaborative process that requires human connection and interaction. I find it interesting that the 'lone genius' idea still gets romanticised in academia.

Maimonides (1190) on embracing uncertainty.

This is very applicable to modern statistical analysis...

I would point to @quantitude.bsky.social 's episodes:

quantitudepod.org/s3e09-semi-p...

quantitudepod.org/s6e20-domina...

If I absolutely must do feature importance, I usually go some model agnostic route, like permutation importance or SHAP or something like that. The DALEX package(s) are really good for those (r/python)

dalex.drwhy.ai

It goes something like this:

1. Formula for beta
2. Formula for part correlation - similar but not identical
3. Squared part correlation is the chance in a model's R² when dropping that variable.
4. Give example where predictor with biggest beta does not have biggest part correlation.

🎩🪄🐇

"... and if anyone can imagine how this would look in higher dimensions - please come see me after class."

r_xy is the simple correlation between each predictor and the outcome, beta_x is the standardized coefficient, yhat are the model predictions... And

R² = cor(y, yhat)² = 1 - sum((y-yhat)²)/sum((y-mean(y))²) = sum(r_xy*bets_x)

And of course, also taught my personal favorite formula for R²:

R² = sum(r_yx * beta_x)