🚨New paper! 🧪🌊🦑
Dr. Liqing Jiang led this synthesis of ocean carbonate chemistry. #OceanAcidification #mCDR @polarocean.bsky.social @jens-d-mueller.bsky.social @sivlauvset.bsky.social @jhauck.bsky.social @jpgattuso.bsky.social @oceancarbon.bsky.social
essd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...
Come join us! PhD position at @unibergen.bsky.social and @bjerknes.uib.no on freshwater transport from the Arctic Ocean and its impacts on the Nordic Seas and subpolar overturning circulation. The position is part of the national Arctic Ocean 2050 program.
www.jobbnorge.no/en/available...
Grateful to @tv5monde.bsky.social for the opportunity to discuss this critical climate topic with a broader audience. It was nerve-wracking to be on live TV for the first time, but also exciting - and the best part was seeing how proud and happy it made my kids 🥰
Interested in learning about the AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation 🌊), its current state, and what a potential shutdown could mean? @cassouman40.bsky.social and I discussed these questions in a debate moderated by Amal Laoui on @tv5monde.bsky.social (in French) 👇
Excited to convene the upcoming EGU webinar on "Mental Health in Academia: Obstacles, Advocacy and Inclusion" on 9 February at 16:00 CET.
Open to all.
👉 Register here: www.egu.eu/webinars/694...
@egu.eu @egubg.bsky.social @anabastos.bsky.social @elsa-abs.bsky.social
JOB ALERT!
@vliz.be is recruiting a Data Engineer to work in a wide-ranging role to help coordinate global SOCAT activities.
Full details: vliz.be/en/jobs/vliz...
🌊📉 Sea surface temperatures have… come back down.
After the big global jump in 2023/24, SSTs are now back at below pre-jump levels in November (climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_dai...).
I tried to unpack this in the thread that is linked here 👇
bsky.app/profile/did:...
So where does this leave us?
✔ Jump: consistent with internal variability
✔ Return: expected, now observed
⚠ Timing: maybe higher underlying warming
And a return ≠ relief. Background warming is strong and dangerous, and we can’t fully rule out that part of the jump reflects real system change.
In a recent follow-up study by @linusvogt.bsky.social (esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...), we found that many climate models simulate too much Antarctic sea ice.
That bias can lead to underestimating future warming.
More real-world sea ice loss → more absorbed heat → stronger warming response.
But (there’s always a but):
The return was relatively late, which could hint at something else:
👉 the climate system may respond more strongly to forcing than we thought leading to a possible underestimation of underlying warming by climate models
This return of observed SSTs to pre-jumpp levels strengthens the interpretation that the 2023/24 jump may have been driven by internal variability, not a permanent shift of the climate system.
However, a system shift cannot be fully excluded until observations over the next years come in.
Now reality checked in.
Observed SSTs have also returned to pre-jump levels -about 2 months later than the model range suggested.
Given that we have only 8 models with such high jumps to determine the range, 2 months is well within uncertainty, and remarkably consistent with the simulated behavior
Crucially, in those simulations, SSTs don’t just jump - they relax back to pre-jump levels.
Typical timing: ~2 years after the jump (by around September).
📅 Models say: “Be patient.”
Earlier this year, we published a paper in @nature.com (www.nature.com/articles/s41...) showing that jumps like the 2023/24 SST spike can arise from internal climate variability alone in climate models - no sudden system shift is required.
Yes, climate models really do produce jumps like this.
Seasonal cycle of global mean daily sea surface temperatures from https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/?dm_id=world2
🌊📉 Sea surface temperatures have… come back down.
After the big global jump in 2023/24, SSTs are now back at below pre-jump levels in November (climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_dai...).
Climate surprise or expected? What role does climate variability play? Let’s try to unpack 👇
1,600+ fossil fuel lobbyists at COP30, outnumbering every delegation except Brazil
This isn’t ‘dialogue’; it’s the industry responsible for the crisis hijacking the negotiations meant to stop it
If this doesn’t make you furious, you’re not paying attention
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Does that help?
So I would also put an uncertainty around the month when SSTs should return, but I cannot say how large that is due to the very small sample size. It might well be 2-4 months. That might sound disappointing but I'd say the primary conclusion above (higher ECS) is relatively robust.
An important point: We have "only" 11 simulations with record-shattering SST jumps out of which 8 have not a very high ECS. Thus, certain statistical uncertainty exists in the maximum duration until SSTs are expected to come back to pre-jump levels (similar to the uncertainties in the return period)
It looks as if SSTs might return in the coming months. If that happens, it would indeed indicate that ECS and warming is not at the very high end but slightly on the higher than expected side.
Hi Peter,
Thanks for asking. Indeed they have not come back yet. Last winter, daily values have briefly been back but not monthly values.
This is in line with an ECS on the slightly higher side. Something that is supported by a study we published yesterday (esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...).
By linking Antarctic sea ice, cloud cover, deep ocean temperatures, and global warming, our new study led by @linusvogt.bsky.social finds that ocean heat uptake and thermal sea level rise by 2100 could be 3–14% higher, and global surface warming 3–7% greater than previously thought👇
And the associated press release for the highlight paper by Earth System Dynamics:
www.egu.eu/news/1505/an...
🚨🌊 New highlight paper out today in Earth System Dynamics!
We find an observational constraint implying more future global ocean heat uptake, cloud feedback, and warming than the CMIP6 mean.
This contrasts with previous estimates based on past warming trends.
🔗 esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
And of course, I forgot the wave 🌊 to add it to the oceanography feed.
So here is the post about this paper, which was published today, and highlights how the deep ocean impacts future atmospheric and ocean warming.
We also show that future warming might be underestimated by past studies!
I also want to thank all the other co-authors that have contributed to this: Casimir de Lavergne, @jbsallee.bsky.social, Lester Kwiatkoswki and @froeltho.bsky.social! It was a fun and sometimes difficult ride.
Also a big thanks to @whoi.edu, @snsf.ch, and the University of Bern!
A 2 or 3 months research visit might be ideal to look into one of these ideas. So do not hesitate & get in contact if you are interested. We have different funding options here in Bern and I would be really happy to organize such a project and try to help to successfully apply for funding.
If anyone would be interested in an extended research visit in my group, I would be more than happy! I have a few more ideas for such projects but I am lacking time at the moment to work on this.
I really want to thank Linus for having accepted the invitation to @whoi.edu and for having taken this initial idea and having turned it into a magnificent paper. This was extraordinary work & I am proud & happy that I could accompany you and work with you on it, @linusvogt.bsky.social!
For future projections, it is thus not only important to understand cloud physics and dynamics but also to well simulate the ocean circulation including the deep waters, a part of the earth system that often receives less attention than it should receive.