Fischers wonderful speech
www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Reis and Bahaj(2021)on CB swap lines
academic.oup.com/restud/artic...
Their 2024 paper with Fuchs also worth reading for great empirics on expansion of global network of liquidity lines.See great graphs!
personal.lse.ac.uk/reisr/papers...
Secondly encountering his textbook with @ojblanchard1 as a young student made me appreciate the power of elegant mathematical modelling to understand macroeconomic questions.
The topics covered and how they are discussed still relevant for macro today
mitpress.mit.edu/978026202283...
His analysis in that speech was prescient on ways to prevent global contagion, post E.Asian crisis reserve accumulation & need for private sector buy-in.
Reading it 25+ years after publication reveals how forward-thinking and influential his analysis was for all that followed.
Stanley Fischer— so many contributions but I want to highlight.
His speech on need for an international lender of resort which argued for IMF to play that role. Over time as $-funding has become more important, CB swap lines led by the Fed mimic part of that role
Possibly one dimension of Deepseek/ broader China success tech:
-Large share of STEM grads
-Increasing rates of MSc and Doctoral students
-Growing share of grads in finance as W growth outpaced national but still absolute # of talented STEM grads is large talent reservoir
My Apple Watch dies basically after a day of use so now I just wear it, without any charge, the ritual of a man tired of charging multiple things every night
Yes think ultrasounds tap into making latent preferences more easily realised.
Wheras seems India in this dimension has started individual + community level shift in the value and potential seen in women.
*Ultrasound tech, possibly the non-military technology with the most gendered negative effects in recent history?
Yes think one child policy really just led a massive structural increase in ratio, helped by the diffusion of ultrasound tech*
kingcenter.stanford.edu/sites/g/file...
(Not sure how much I buy land reform story)
Yes,seems sig improvement esp given underlying parental /cultural incentives(& may be sign of that gradually shifting)
I like this by Jisoo Hwang which -Shows evolution across Asia & exceptionalism of S.Korea
-role of lower ratio in higher order births
-Decline in stated son preference in surveys
I
India stopping rules pretty strong which leads to relatively strong skew in last birth compared to others
Significant difference on wanting another child when comparing those with only boys vs only girls
Link to paper:
seemajayachandran.com/ten_facts_so...
Jayachandran(2023) great paper on progress and remaining inequities. Although sex ratio data at birth seems more volatile (possibly by trying to be retrospective)
-F/M ratio of infant survival marked improvement
-Eldest son preference pretty strong,when plotting non-eldest/eldest stunting rates
www.nber.org/system/files...
Link to paper
How Chinese Goods ate the world…
Throwback to Feenstra et al(1998), examining growing US-China trade deficit back then(!) linking to
-Macro forces
-China crowding out East Asian imports
“By 1995, China has displaced South Korea as one of the top 5 suppliers of "apparel and other textile products"
-Risk of crowding out,but empirically seems banks respond by issuing deposits not cutting lending.
Here is the case of Japan
-Jeanne(2024) have straightforward model showing bank balance sheet decisions interacting with gov debt issuance
-Some data on threshold of gov debt/GDP, after which greater issuance absorbed by banks
www.imf.org/en/News/Semi...
So I will try to use this site with an oversupply of screenshots.
This shows how Gov Debt to GDP has evolved for a range of advanced economies, reaching extremely high levels.
An increasing share of that extra issuance absorbed by domestic banks, possibly a source of fin repression.
It’s fun posting currently both here and on Twitter as I can easily cope by pretending the low engagement is due to small audiences and declining Twitter engagement as Musk breaks the site down..
Rather than you know,my posts being bad.
This is what happens when you let a true nerd design central bank communication without any guidance from generalists.
Or you know the BoJ has no idea how to end this um great experiment in monetary policy
wrap.warwick.ac.uk/44710/1/WRAP...
Here Craft has a wonderful analysis of Allen and Mokyr competing frameowrks for the 1st IR and role of micro and macro inventions(& overlapping definitions).
Crafts is also very clear on the evidence base required for thier arguments on first IR to be robust
Since Crafts passing every few days I pick another random work of his to read at night before bed.
To add to Pseudos predictably good point, I’d add Crafts takes arguments of his opponents seriously & was devastatingly clear where they fell short.
Tonight’s reading was a review of Allen & Mokyr
I don’t even know what he’s done!
That whole Ukraine starlink thing blew over quite quickly.
Thought it would lead to some broader debates about outsourcing critical infrastructure to private companies
Finally planning on going to Italy this summer, very excited!
Swiatek-Bencic and Azarenka-Svitolina 3rd sets occurring simultaneously and Djokovic-Hurkacz to follow under the lights.
A great day of tennis and overall the best first week of a slam I can remember in some time
50 pages in and it’s great so far!
Might start a thread either here or on the Other Place of little passages that really struck me as I read through
In anticipation of (hopefully) becoming a dad one day I’ve started reading ‘The making of the atomic bomb’ so there will be one less thing to do when I have a child
Yes, really enjoyed reading those sections!
Remember when we used to judge people “selling out”?
Millennials have been hit by so many economic shocks that we now seem incapable of holding out celebrities,artists and sports people to any moral standard if it conflicts with $$$$
Looking through the graphs in central bank reports raises a challenge to the concept of ideas being non rivalrous and the fast diffusion of information in our modern era…
Some of them clearly have not heard of ggplot2
Ahh has Luther been ill?😢