Cameron Garrett: Do the Conservatives have a Badenoch problem? | Conservative Home Our polling, shared exclusively with ConHome, suggests a change of leader isn’t likely to solve anything - unless it means the Party delivers a clear-eyed assessment of what it is and for whom it stan...

This suggests the issue isn't just about a new face, but a new foundation. The path back to relevance lies in addressing core voter priorities, not just changing the person at the top. Read the full piece for my take on what that could look like: bit.ly/4lskcr1

In my new op-ed for @conservativehome.bsky.social , I use our exclusive @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social polling to explore the fundamental question facing the Conservatives: is the problem the leader or the party's brand? Our data shows the public isn't enthusiastic about any potential replacements.

Reform on course to win next election More than a third of voters back Nigel Farage’s party while Tories could get fewer than 10 seats, according to a new poll

More from our exclusive polling with @telegraphnews.bsky.social
here: www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06...

💥NEW Keir Starmer's satisfaction has fallen to -54 with @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social

💥That's worse than scores EVER achieved by Johnson, May, Cameron or Blair

💥Hitting this low is usually terminal for a PM e.g. Sunak, Truss and Thatcher were all shortly out of office

British public now see Reform as main opposition over Conservatives, and believe Farage more likely to be PM than Badenoch Britons are now slightly more likely to consider Reform UK (37%) as the main opposition party, ahead of the Conservatives (33%).

More here: www.ipsos.com/en-uk/britis...

Big jumps in just six months from @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social
on numbers who think Starmer and Badenoch won't be leading their parties at next election...

❌Unlikely Starmer leads Lab: 43% (+14pts)
❌Unlikely Badenoch leads Cons: 49% (+11pts)

Local elections 2025: 'How do Labour solve a problem like Reform?' - LabourList The fact of the matter is that from a voter’s perspective, whatever Labour is currently doing, isn’t working. To avoid Reform’s good weekend turning into an even better couple of years, something need...

Last week Nigel Farage said he was going to have “the Conservatives for breakfast, and Labour for lunch.”

Yesterday he snatched Runcorn from Labour on a 17.4% swing...

How do Labour solve a problem like Reform?

Read my analysis using Ipsos data in LabourList 👇
labourlist.org/2025/05/loca...

Erosion of the ‘special relationship’ To what extent do you agree or disagree that there is currently a special relationship between the United States and Britain? Apr'25 30% agree 40% disagree

Substantial shift in British public opinion towards the US

Only 3 in 10 Britons now agree there is currently a 'special relationship' between the US and UK - a 17-point drop from May 2024.

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The proportion of Britons saying there isn’t a “special relationship” with the US doubles in one year amidst concern over tariffs Only three in ten (30%) Britons now agree there is a "special relationship" between the US and UK - a significant 17-point drop from previous year.

However, each countermeasure will have very different consequences for Britain's economy, place in the world and Starmer's premiership.

We're currently at an inflection point. Make sure you're following @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social to see how it plays out. (6/6) www.ipsos.com/en-uk/propor...

Fortunately, for the PM he’s not boxed in when it comes to next steps.

The public support a range of measures...

Net support:
Trade deal +39
Retaliatory tariffs +29
Wait and see +24

... but don't want to be seen as weak

Ruling out tariffs -18 (5/6)

Was all the schmoozing worth it? 🤷

The proportion of Britons saying there isn’t a “special relationship” with the US has doubled in one year.

Just three in ten (30%) agree there is a special relationship – a 17 point drop from a year ago. (4/6)

And who’ll be to blame?

They’re most likely to say Trump has handled tariffs badly (and that’s before the u-turn)

But Starmer hasn’t earned resounding public confidence in his own handling yet - more say he's done a bad than good job (3/6)

First, the obvious: Brits aren’t keen on tariffs.

They’re bracing themselves for potentially serious economic pain.

Two in three think tariffs will have a negative impact on the:
💂‍♂️UK economy (66%)
🌎Global economy (68%)

... and our relationship with the US (63%) (2/6)

The proportion of Britons saying there isn’t a “special relationship” with the US doubles in one year amidst concern over tariffs Only three in ten (30%) Britons now agree there is a "special relationship" between the US and UK - a significant 17-point drop from previous year.

The UK wakes up in the same situation as (nearly) everyone else when it comes to US tariffs.

How is Starmer doing as he walks the tightrope of a strong response without alienating the President?

Quick🧵on the latest @ipsosintheuk.bsky.social polling (1/6)
www.ipsos.com/en-uk/propor...