Nordic overturning increases as AMOC weakens in response to global warming Abstract. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is weakening in response to global warming, while the Nordic Seas Overturning Circulation (NOC) is projected to strengthen. So far, the...

New paper published today that was led by some awesome students who did their master theses with us. We find an increase in Nordic seas overturning as the AMOC weakens due to global warming 🌊

This new study highlights important ocean processes relevant to AMOC stability. But there is still substantial uncertainty across models, so it should be interpreted with caution. Some studies suggest higher risk after 2100, but collapse before 2100 still appears unlikely from the broader evidence.

I’ve seen the study - it’s interesting research extending our understanding of changes beyond 2100.

I was also quoted in the Guardian article you mention.

More climate model simulations extending beyond 2100 are needed to properly assess these risks.

Collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation would lead to substantial oceanic carbon release and additional global warming - Communications Earth & Environment The collapse of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation would result in increase of 47-83 ppm of global mean atmospheric carbon dioxide and 0. 2 °C of additional global warming at higher carb...

Link to the original study:

Collapse of key ocean current may release billions of tonnes of carbon If the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation shut down, the knock-on effects could release hundreds of billions of tonnes of CO2, raising global temperatures even further

I was quoted in this @newscientist.com article on a study linking AMOC collapse to a large CO₂ release from the Southern Ocean.

“To see this play out in a warmer climate, and with such a large increase in CO₂, is quite striking.”

Key uncertainties remain in how SO processes respond across models 🌊

A Hidden Antarctic Tipping Point May Have Just Been Triggered YouTube video by PBS Terra

Great vid on Antarctic sea ice featuring some familiar faces (nicely done, @edoddridge.bsky.social @ariaan.bsky.social @climatenerilie.bsky.social 😃)

Postdoctoral Research Fellow in physical oceanography (297421) | University of Bergen Job title: Postdoctoral Research Fellow in physical oceanography (297421), Employer: University of Bergen, Deadline: Friday, April 17, 2026

❗NEW POSITION! Postdoctoral research fellow at the Geophysical Institute and the Bjerknes Centre, within physical oceanography. The position is for a fixed-term period of 3 years and is associated with the Arctic Ocean 2050 program. 🧪🌊 @unibergen.bsky.social

www.jobbnorge.no/en/available...

East Sands beach, St Andrews, in the sunshine (which happens more often than you probably think!)

Chair in Earth Sciences position @uniofstandrews.bsky.social closing soon - Monday 23 March.

Very broad remit, so if you’d like to join our lovely school, and get to live in the super beautiful and friendly wee nation of Scotland, please apply!

www.st-andrews.ac.uk/earth-scienc...

⚒️🌊🧪

Postdoctoral Research Fellow in physical oceanography (297421) | University of Bergen Job title: Postdoctoral Research Fellow in physical oceanography (297421), Employer: University of Bergen, Deadline: Friday, April 17, 2026

Bergen calling! Postdoc position at @unibergen.bsky.social and @bjerknes.uib.no focused on the Arctic Ocean and its impacts on the Atlantic overturning circulation (AMOC). The position is part of the national Arctic Ocean 2050 program.

www.jobbnorge.no/en/available...

Speaking at #OSM2026 tomorrow (Thu 11:50, Hall 1) in the ocean overturning dynamics session.

Presenting results from our Nature paper on why the AMOC weakens but is unlikely to collapse this century: Southern Ocean winds sustain the circulation in climate models 🌊

The Arctic overturning circulation: transformations, pathways and timescales Abstract. The Arctic is the northernmost terminus of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and is an important source of the densest waters feeding its lower limb. However, relatively little...

🌊Where and how is dense water in the Arctic formed? In our new paper, we decompose the Arctic overturning circulation (ArMOC), the northernmost part of the AMOC. Check it out 🔽

@bjerknes.uib.no @mariusarthun.bsky.social @kristoferdoos.bsky.social @nansensenteret.bsky.social @noc.ac.uk

🌊 In 2025, global sea surface temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record, ~0.5°C above the 1981–2010 average.

SSTs dipped slightly from 2023–24 as El Niño shifted toward La Niña, but warm oceans still fueled floods and drought worldwide.

To collapse or not: the stability of the AMOC in a warming climate — NERC GW4+ Supervisor: Dr Rory Bingham Project keywords: climate, oceanography, AMOC, sea-level, AI

📢 PhD opportunity! 🌊
“To collapse or not: the stability of the AMOC in a warming climate”
Deadline: 8 Jan 2026

Work with Bristol, Liverpool & the Met Office on AMOC stability using observations, models & AI.

Details: www.nercgw4plus.ac.uk/projects-202...

Please share with anyone interested!

Changing European hydroclimate under a collapsed AMOC in the Community Earth System Model Abstract. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is expected to weaken or even collapse under anthropogenic climate change. Given the importance of the AMOC in the present-day climate,...

📢 New paper on the impacts of AMOC collapse on European hydroclimate. 🌊

We find an AMOC collapse would exacerbate drought conditions across Europe, linked to reduced precipitation. In combination with climate change droughts are expected to become more frequent and severe.

doi.org/10.5194/hess...

Happy to see this out! Meltwater can delay future surface warming, and its interannual variations impact ocean stratification & overturning.​​ This effect is usually absent from models.

Including it as forcing may lead to more realistic simulation of surface temperature and sea ice trends🧊🌊 (1/7)

Datasets and protocols for including anomalous freshwater from melting ice sheets in climate simulations Abstract. Anomalous freshwater fluxes from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and ice shelves are impacting the surrounding oceans, and we need to be able to account for these effects in climate m...

Finally out! The outcome of a virtual workshop in Feb 2024 with modelers and observationalists to put together data and protocols to include historical changes in ice sheet/ice shelf discharge in CMIP models. Hopefully not too late for some CMIP7 runs!

gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...

PhD opportunity in oceanography 🌊🌊🌊
"The role of the northwest Atlantic boundary current in the meridional overturning circulation". This is an @o-snap.org related study about the AMOC.
@marineinstitute.bsky.social
@oceanaccess.bsky.social

More information here: www.mi.mun.ca/media/marine...

Southern Ocean influence on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation across climate states - Nature Communications The properties of the Antarctic Bottom Water largely determine the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation’s depth and strength across climate states by affecting the routes via which North Atlant...

Exciting to see our overturning pathway method applied in new research!

Song et al. use it on CMIP6 PMIP glacial models and find these pathways shape the AMOC response - confirming our earlier idealised results for glacial climates 🌊

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Inter-basin contrast in the Southern Ocean warming - Nature Communications This work highlights a sharp warming contrast within the Southern Ocean: the Atlantic-Indian sector warms faster than the Pacific due to wind-driven heat transport. The contrast is projected to persis...

🌊 Inter-basin contrast in the Southern Ocean warming

Over the past six decades, the warming of the 0-700 m Atlantic-Indian sector was 40.0 ± 5.7% faster than the Pacific sector, nearly doubling at ~44°S.

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

A full AMOC shutdown to 0 Sv after 2100 looks very unlikely, as Southern Ocean winds maintain a weak overturning even under extreme forcing.

A collapse below ~6 Sv is more likely than before 2100, depending on future emissions.

Even a weakened AMOC could bring major climate impacts.

Across all SSPs, every CMIP6 model remains above 6 Sv (though a few come close) throughout this century — so no AMOC collapse occurs, by either the ~6 Sv “near-shutdown” or 0 Sv “full-shutdown” definitions

To clarify: by real-world forcing I mean any of the CMIP6 SSP scenarios — even the most extreme, SSP585. These AMOC time series are documented in Weijer et al., 2020 and Baker et al., 2023.

Always interesting to see this come up again 😄

Our Nature paper didn’t “redefine” collapse — there’s no single threshold, though ~6 Sv is common.

We used 0 Sv only for extreme 4×CO₂ runs (full shutdown).

Under real-world forcing, models stay above 6 Sv this century — no collapse.

Clarified 🌊👇

Physical Oceanographers! Come join us in the Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences at NC State University.
Job posting now live: jobs.ncsu.edu/postings/223... 🌊

Will the AMOC Collapse? Insights from Climate Models | Jonathan Baker | ClimTip Webinar YouTube video by ClimTip

🎥 My recent ClimTip talk on our Nature paper is now online!

We find that an AMOC collapse is unlikely this century as Southern Ocean winds pull deep waters to the surface, stabilising it in a weakened state.

Still, the global ocean circulation is expected to change greatly as the planet warms 🌊

Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent Abstract. The ocean takes up over 90 % of the excess heat stored in the Earth system as a result of anthropogenic climate change, which has led to sea level rise and an intensification of marine extre...

🚨🌊 New highlight paper out today in Earth System Dynamics!

We find an observational constraint implying more future global ocean heat uptake, cloud feedback, and warming than the CMIP6 mean.

This contrasts with previous estimates based on past warming trends.

🔗 esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...

Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent Abstract. The ocean takes up over 90 % of the excess heat stored in the Earth system as a result of anthropogenic climate change, which has led to sea level rise and an intensification of marine extre...

Future atmospheric and ocean warming over the 21st century might be larger than previously expected based on a new study by @linusvogt.bsky.social

Linus & I developed the idea during Linus research visit with me at @whoi.edu and turned it then into this paper:

esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...

Southern Ocean CO2 outgassing and nutrient load reduced by a well-ventilated glacial North Pacific - Nature Communications A better-ventilated North Pacific could have reduced the carbon of water upwelled in the Southern Ocean, reducing outgassing and revealing a remote influence on Southern Ocean biogeochemistry in glaci...

🚨New paper on Southern Ocean CO2🚨
Using a suite of Earth system models, Maddie Shankle et al show that better ventilation of intermediate waters in the North Pacific ends up reducing outgassing of CO2 in the Southern Ocean 🌊🧪⚒️🧵 @earthscista.bsky.social
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Unexpected decline in the ocean carbon sink under record-high sea surface temperatures in 2023 - Nature Climate Change The ocean carbon sink strengthened in previous warm El Niño years due to reduced CO2 outgassing in the tropics. Here the authors show that the ocean carbon sink declined in 2023 despite record-high se...

🌊 In 2023, the ocean carbon sink weakened for the first time in a record-hot year 🌡️🌎
Our new study in Nature Climate Change quantifies this unexpected decline and explains how it came about. 👇
doi.org/10.1038/s415...

⏰ Reminder: Tomorrow I’ll join @climtip.bsky.social to discuss the future of the AMOC.

Our Nature study suggests collapse is unlikely this century — but the risks remain critical.

🗓️ 2 Sept, 14:00–15:00 CEST
👉 tum-conf.zoom.us/j/6933421034...