going to the Nuremburg rally with a pocket square to show that i don't approve of hitler. still heiling though

Aarp is a terrorist organization its time for the elderly to pull themselves up by their own bootstraps

JD Vance gets heckled at TPUSA event: “You’re killing children!”

the dow graph looks basically the same though, its not at pre war level yet but seems like it will be before the end of the week

shes baiting them here too without just a screenshot being shared over!

Spot oil still being crazy high compared to futures, also the less publicly discussed things like urea futures staying extremely elevated and not tracking the oil volatility

urea futures went up over 25% in the first 2 days of the war and just kept climbing to almost 80% up despite the same cause

i dont think im that fortunate, all the ones i dont get are sv terms i think? which is a different kind of fortunate, but maybe im wrong about the context clues and i am just close to being free

i could read the ratlimit original far to quickly but im frankly glad that theres some abbreviations in this one i dont understand

I actually have been trying to bone smash and neckmaxx my way into aging into Soviet trans rights Joe Biden since theophite generated this image a few years ago

i had no idea george hw bush was US ambassador to the UN

it turns out that you can shoot and kill an idea

i dont think thats inherently unreasonable but theres lots of presidential duties i think require some physicality

For example undergoing treatment involving multiple surgeries and significant chemotherapy, or being totally bedridden would be too far imo

well, its a higher threshold but its the same senate threshold and thats always going to be the roadblock

nixon for example was probably still fucked at these thresholds

also i dont think its the same as being non compos mentis, you could be mentally sound and physically incapable imo

wait you need 2/3rds in the house too not just the senate for this to work so it even has a higher vote threshold??

butprocedure aside, the evidence hes committed a bunch of crimes is way more clear than the evidence hes incapable of carrying out the duties of the president even tho both are true

I knew sports betting was obviously male dominated, but I didnt realize just how male dominated. If 27% of Americans have a sports betting account, and its 52% of men, those men make up 26 of 27% and theres almost 30 men for every woman with an account

even more so when youve got (as youve correctly identified) a whole social network giving you plausible, even if false, reasons for why youre unhappy

It'd obviously be better to have something you could ask people about and get data on but peoples stated and revealed preferences regularly dont line up

And even more so with trauma a lot of therapy work is helping you find out why your unhappy because that itself can be hard

You get further from the trend yea, but we're plotting the log here since its exponentials

on the log plot its two straight lines with just a constant gap once your return to trend since

log(100*1.02^x) and log((100+10)*1.02^x)) are both straight lines with the same slope

he explains the variable here

once you have the bump, unless there is some event causing deflation that will drop the actual line, youre going to be permanently elevated above trend

bsky.app/profile/gell...

Maybe im missing something now but i dont think theres any decay at all in his model

becuase the higher price level is going to inflate nominally more per year a return to exactly precovid trend would lock in the delta between the curves on the log plot

I think it was clear will wasn't claiming it was just pce today-pce jan 1 2020 and instead properly understood it to be the difference in real line vs extrapolated trend

at least when i read wills post i understood it that way from his description

You can probably fix this with a more complicated variable that takes a moving weighted average and recreates this effect when theres some kind of shock to trend but then decays away with time

but that variable wouldnt explain why sentiment is still bad

There was high inflation through the 70s but 79-82 was the worst years

But again, the question is why didnt it stay *permanently negative*

If your model uses "Y relative to pre-event trend" unless we have a period of deflation thats going to remain elevated forever not just for several years

Why didn’t sentiment stay permanently negative after the much worse high inflation period from 79-82?

60 minute interviewed Clavicular but killed the story about the US torturing immigrants in El Salvador because it wasn’t sufficiently news worthy

Ok but this is too many people too

A guy on the pier here appears to have some kind of seagull based HIIT workout (he’s in athletic clothes and looks like he started a workout on his watch) where he attempts to stop them from eating several piles of birdseed (?) that he put out at intervals.

Yes it does?

Is not a clear sign* among other typos I made trying to get under the character limit oops

It’s not really open, but I think this is plausible

But also I think selectively letting some to demonstrate control, while benefiting a strategic ally a undermining one of the US major strategic economic goals while demanding a free 25% boost in gdp is a clear sign of immediate collapse either