Old: The Emperor’s New Clothes

New: The Emperor’s New Math

Really think the game being played with futures markets is leaving a lot of folks unprepared for the future which now seems functionally locked in.

If supply is down 10m barrels a day, then demand will, eventually, have to conform and that is going to be unpleasant.

trying to get out of jury duty by telling the lawyers im gonna do “henry fonda shit” only for one of them to, confused, go, “you’re going to cheat on your wife and become emotionally distant to your children?”

I like to think of this as the American version of bread and circuses.

a teenage boy just made it clear to me that he thought the shirt im wearing was advertising the two separate concepts of guns and of roses

Q: "This war has already gone on longer than Trump said it would initially. How long should Americans be prepared for this war to go on?"

Leavitt: "President Trump will ultimately dictate the timeline."

It will be the law of the jungle.

Market analysts are already predicting that rich countries will outbid poor countries for scarce oil and gas supplies. This means energy famine for the Global South.

Link: www.ft.com/content/6ca1...

Alright, I’m home now so here’s the Norm update. Yesterday at 4pm, I got a text from a family I’ve been helping who had a loved one abducted a couple of days after Renée Good’s murder. This was the family that Norm Nation kept from being evicted (and you delivered). ICE had released their loved one.

Several U.S. officials and Trump associates drew the same conclusion: the president thinks the U.S. has achieved everything it can militarily and wants out of the increasingly unpopular war. He won't resume it until he has exhausted every other option.-Axios

Trump Approval Polling:

Disapprove: 67% (+7)
Approve: 33% (-5)

AP-NORC / April 20, 2026

(% Change With March 23, 2026)

I gotta say I don’t think watching voter turnout throughout the day is very healthy for large amounts of people on twitter

Chart of 10 delta front month Brent crude futures calls implied volatility since 2010

Brent crude calls >150% IV again

At least Iran gets this part right, from one of their LEGO propaganda movies….

The Epstein Class

Oh look, what a shock, he's extending the ceasefire indefinitely.

I assume the market response will be 'oh good, no renewed war!' when it should be, 'uh oh, this 'almost no ships move, mutual blockade ceasefire could continue for a long time!'

Both sides think they gain from extending pressure.

I feel like Sun Tzu really missed out on "Invent Pete Hegseth and give him to the enemy"

TL;DR:

THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS STILL CLOSED.

Iran maintains the upper hand because time is its weapon.

He’s probably the single worst living American.

This would be the most fascinating slow motion car crash to watch if we weren’t all inside the car.

GREEK CAPTAIN OF A PANAMANIAN-FLAGGED MALAYSIAN OIL TANKER EN ROUTE TO AUSTRALIA WITH IRAQI CRUDE: "So is the Strait open or not?"

IRGC COMMANDER, REFRESHING TRUTH SOCIAL: "Look here man, I know just as much as you do, ok?"

Doris Lessing: “A public library is the most democratic thing in the world. What can be found there has undone dictators and tyrants.”

someone who is good at news please help, my brain is dying

There are Germans who fought back against the Nazis. There are Russians fighting back against Putin. Syrian soldiers abandoned the Assad regime in huge numbers.

Israelis can do more. There are those who already are doing everything they can, but nowhere near enough.

UNICEF is outraged by the killing of two drivers of trucks contracted by UNICEF to provide clean water to families in the Gaza Strip. The victims were killed by Israeli fire in an incident that took place early this morning at the Mansoura water filling point in northern Gaza. UNICEF extends our condolences to the families of the men killed.

UNICEF just needs to release the hostages

Larissa Waters asks former Treasury chief Ken Henry if it’s too simplistic to say wartime gas profits from the war on Iran can either go to Australians, or to overseas investors & shareholders.
Henry “That’s not simplistic, that’s how it is!” “It is as simple as that.” 💥 #auspol

Never mind that the supposedly fractious Italian system has had less Prime Ministers serving for longer on average than the UK system since 2007

The first foreign visit of the next U.S. President should be to NATO HQ in Brussels, Belgium.

First visits tell you something about a President’s priorities.

Trump: Saudi Arabia
Biden: United Kingdom
Trump: Saudi Arabia
Obama: Canada
GW Bush: Mexico
Clinton: Canada
GWH Bush: Canada
Reagan: Mexico

Today's winner of the Internet. Congratulations!

One of the Sandy Hook families lives in hiding 1500 mi away from their baby’s grave due to people stalking them.

The graves of multiple children have been defaced.

One of the fathers had to submit DNA evidence to prove his son was a REAL HUMAN BEING after Alex Jones’ book said he never existed.

what is the motivation for Olly Robbins to repeatedly lie about Mandelson supposed to be? as opposed to the strong if stupid incentives for Starmer to lie about it.