Bettors wagered $54 million on Khamenei’s death. Now they’re not getting paid. Kalshi, a prediction market site, has sparked outrage after freezing $54 million in bets on the death of Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, citing a rule against profiting from death.

. @amandalfischer.bsky.social: “How is an 86-year-old theocratic leader supposed to lose his power other than through death?”

@dustingouker.bsky.social: “They could have easily made the title ‘by way other than death,’ but that’s obviously not as exciting to trade"

Gift link: wapo.st/4slNDyG

Trump Wins $60 On Kalshi Betting He’ll Bomb Iran

Trump Wins $60 On Kalshi Betting He’ll Bomb Iran theonion.com/trump-wins-60-on-kalshi-...

The Chaos of Khamenei Prediction Markets As the world became aware that the US and Israel had conducted strikes against Iran, many were discovering for the first time that traders were wagering on outcomes related to those strikes.

"One of the points of prediction markets is supposed to be getting us to “the truth” and probabilities of real-world events. This whole episode was basically the polar opposite of that at Kalshi." - @dustingouker.bsky.social

I am not sure I am that interesting but I do more than the average person about prediction markets

Ha ha I saw this earlier

Screenshot of tweet by Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour announcing a partnership with Fox Sports and Mark Sanchez's podcast called Rearview.

Somehow it is absolutely fitting that Kalshi announced a partnership a month ago with Mark Sanchez's podcast. Wonder if they'll set a market for if that partnership will get canceled 😏 (h/t @dustingouker.bsky.social)

At some point people are going to attempt to manipulate these kind of things, if they haven’t already.

Kalshi is at least for now staying away from stuff like this

it's in there

Either JD Vance has become the new Nick Castellanos or Nick is hitting an absolute tank tonight.

It’s really a generational run for the offshore sportsbooks. So much great news! :holds earpiece: I am being told these are not legitimate news sources

Bovada’s run is over after just two days! Congrats to BetOnline.

I was on Twitter for a bit to get some engagement for my new newsletter, and 1. It still doesn’t work for getting people to read content and 2. It’s still terrible there. I will try not to relapse.

the one silver lining to all of this is seeing this parade of dipshits get their just desserts

Seems like a legit press release

I think this might be the greatest hype video of all time

Who needs a retirement account when I can live trade women’s basketball at Kalshi and Robinhood

Five reasons why ESPN Bet never had a chance Was ESPN Bet doomed from the start? The worldwide leader in sports has failed to gain any traction for its sports betting platform.

The ESPN and Penn relationship has not performed as expected.

How much of that was poor execution versus unrealistic expectations?

awfulannouncing.com/gambling/esp...

That was a little before my time!

It’s a great a time to go through the whole Wolfenstein catalog on PlayStation Plus

Some media outlets are passing the test and some are failing

How Much Money Is Being Traded On The Super Bowl at Kalshi? Sports trading in general is off to a bit of a slow start at the prediction market platform.

I started a new newsletter about prediction markets like Kalshi. Now that they've gotten into sports betting, it seemed like time to do more. It's weekly for now, so I won't be spamming your inbox. nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/kalshi-sup...

Let’s see how the sports bettors are doing on Kalshi

Why are you even playing Daniels if you are gonna run the ball😂

🦅🦅🦅

Have mostly been offline but I see we are doing Nazi salutes on Inauguration Day/MLK Day, really looking forward to the next four years

Hurts was not great but the narratives right now are nuts is all.

Hurts with more total yards than Mahomes and Allen for the record.

Never a doubt

Eagles are now at -7 on DraftKings, and it’s at -120.