Worth noting that the IRS has just lost its 3rd commissioner in *this* filing season.

That’s unheard of. With tax day around the corner, fair to be worried about this filing season – and what’s to come with respect to our ability to collect taxes and raise revenue

New analysis from @budgetlab.bsky.social:

The IRS is entering into an agmt to share data about undocumented immigrants with ICE. Historically, the agency promised data would not be used in this way.

We estimate the govt will lose ~$300B in the next decade as a result.

Hard endorse

It’s not secret at all! Hmu for your dog bandana needs, and I’ll ship you some for free. My goal is for all dogs to be #DogsInBandanas.

In contrast with much in the world being terrible, let it be known that @maibennett.com is a delight to hang out with irl, and she has a not-so-secret hobby sewing adorable dog bandannas

Heck yeah we are! Thank you so much again, Mai 🙏

Another happy client of #BobsBandanas cc @lukestein.com

Literally recorded a pod about this to release tomorrow. Investors don't buy shares; they buy interest in an SPV, so the companies can limit the number of investors on their books and remain legally private

I am not saying this out of glee or schadenfreude, or to score political points. I actually think it's an important data point that may not be getting through to people in the US because of all the other horrors they're confronting and trying to resist.

a scatterplot of grant obligations vs trump-harris vote margin, showing cancelled grants (in red) were predominantly in harris-leaning counties (whereas grants overall in gray span all margins), with a histogram below reinforcing the difference.

a scatterplot of contract obligations vs trump-harris vote margin, showing cancelled contracts (in red) were predominantly in harris-leaning counties (whereas grants overall in gray span all margins), with a histogram below reinforcing the difference, a less stark pattern than with grants

I wasn't browsing r/dataisbeautiful for this, but interesting pattern, good use of the scatter (and layers) and the overlaid histograms (which generally isn't my favorite).
www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeau...

Today’s shitpost is tomorrow’s Beamer theme @spencerbarnes.bsky.social

hahahaha

“So, why don’t you start by telling us a bit about your job market paper”

If the government can do this to universities, we don't live in a free society. Five alarm fire.

Quick and dirty: Trading days from first entering “correction” territory (don't like that term, but 🤷) until hitting deepest drawdown:

- 20% turn around the next day
- 40% turn around two weeks – two months
- 27% five months – one year
- 13% more than a year

Lunchtime chat w colleague Linghang. In spirit of what our MSF students are learning to code, here’s max drawdown following every 10% S&P 500 correction back to 1980 (n=15 excl. today)

- 6 hit a new high before dropping 15%
- Another 6 fell >25%
- Only 3 turned around at 15–25% (all close to 20%)

Context for today's headlines

genuine respect for williams & connolly, hope law students with multiple options take notice

The microdosing I’m on board with

Hi, McDonalds here!

Everyone at our company is a stupid dumbass moron and think people don't wanna order hotcakes and sausages at 1 P.M when it's been shown with extensive market research and customer reviews they DO want that.

We used to offer it but removed it. Sorry, I hate our hashbrowns too.

Let's say you work at a fund of funds that cuts the lowest 10% performers every calendar year.

You are beta=1 with decent alpha that puts you reliably in the top 40% of performers at your firm.

You also have a reliable prediction: "70% chance market goes down next 3 months."

With his permission, I'm sharing Dean Treanor's response to Ed Martin's letter:

🎂 @johnjhorton.bsky.social

There it is: Speaker of the House says Elon has already started running your Social Security through his AI.

This is my Twitter DM inbox