🔸Is Erdogan testing to see how Europe 🇪🇺will act? EU needs Türkiye 🇹🇷 defence and Trump appears to have given green light. Most important is to watch world’s 3rd largest economy: what will Germany 🇩🇪🇪🇺 say?
[END].
🔸 But, often, politicians make choices for their own short-term political survival and personal-power. Open question: how will Türkiye 🇹🇷 respond: seculars, youths, opposition parties, Istanbulites and business?
. . . Continued
🔸US & Türkiye 🇺🇸🇹🇷 also appear to have deep structural differences: Israel 🇮🇱& Netanyahu, Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦, Horn of Africa, Green Energy versus Gas/Oil, Egypt, Caucasus and Central Asia, China 🇨🇳 policy and list goes on.
Continued . . .
🔸Numerically, Türkiye's 🇹🇷 economy, security and energy is European. This is easily demonstrated in trade, foreign investment, logistic connectivity & energy export market figures. US 🇺🇸🇹🇷 trade is less than 6% and EU 🇪🇺🇹🇷 trade is more than 45%.
. . . Continued
🔸Why? No geo-political analyst would say otherwise. All trade figures, infrastructure, CU, electricity grid, supply chains support this.
🔸”If 🇹🇷 choose a security/economic relationship with 🇺🇸 US . . . it would be short-lived gain; it 🇹🇷 would be shooting itself in foot.”
. . . Continued
New 🇪🇺🇹🇷 article by @news.dw.com is kind enough to quote my analysis.
Çok teşekkürler / Danke🙏
Topic: İmamoğlu imprisonment and Erdogan reach for power & international bargaining 🇺🇸🇪🇺👇
🔸”Türkiye's 🇹🇷 natural choice should be Europe, where it shares a common geography.”
. . . Continued
I wish I could have joined you in Rome 🇮🇹🇪🇺, Bucharest 🇷🇴🇪🇺, Belgrade 🇷🇸🇪🇺, Brussels 🇧🇪🇪🇺, Berlin 🇩🇪🇪🇺, Tbilisi 🇬🇪🇪🇺and many more cities this weekend for the #EuropeMarch.
I wore my 🇪🇺 jumper for a morning jog.
Viva L’Europa! 🙏
#UnitedInDiversity #StrongerTogether #ContinentalUnity
Thousands of people gathered in Bucharest, Romania to declare their solidarity with Europe and Ukraine, and to reject Russia and Trump's attempts to corrupt their democracy. #3E #RomaniaProtests
I wish I could have joined you in Rome 🇮🇹🇪🇺, Bucharest 🇷🇴🇪🇺, Belgrade 🇷🇸🇪🇺, Brussels 🇧🇪🇪🇺, Berlin 🇩🇪🇪🇺, Tbilisi 🇬🇪🇪🇺and many more cities this weekend for the #EuropeMarch.
I wore my 🇪🇺 jumper for a morning jog.
Viva L’Europa! 🙏
#UnitedInDiversity #StrongerTogether #ContinentalUnity
#French 🇫🇷🇪🇺 #intelligence community publishes my views on considering #Türkiye 🇹🇷 in European security architecture 👇
Ex-senior-intelligence & military-industrial expert Alain Rodier adds my views in 2025 public article for ‘Centre Francais Recherche sur les Renseignement’👇
cf2r.org/actualite/quel…
. . .
Now, geo-politics, customs union and new security agenda are at play.
Paradoxically, EU-Türkiye 🇪🇺🇹🇷 relations have never been more relevant and fragile at the same time.
Read my article (2024) about #Türkiye in Europe’s New Security Architecture 🇪🇺🇹🇷 liberalforum.eu/wp-content/u...
. . .
Perhaps personal relationship of two leaders is lacking. Perhaps structural-divisions are too great between two of Europe’s leading powers.
Only time will tell.
What remains certain: 🇫🇷 popular misconceptions about 🇹🇷 and 🇫🇷 should be relegated to the past.
. . . (Continued)
. . .
Complex points of contention 🇫🇷🇹🇷👇
🔸Africa influence
🔸Caucasus & Central Asia
🔸Customs Union & EIB
🔸Security, Space & Defence
🔸Strategic Autonomy
🔸Eastern Mediterranean
🔸Cyprus territorial integrity
🔸Greek maritime
🔸Nuclear Plants
🔸Theology & Laicite
🔸Syria
🔸Migration
. . . (Continued)
. . .
@EmmanuelMacron.bsky.social should accept Erdoğan’s invitation to Ankara instead of always stalling.
@rterdogana.bsky.social personnel should privately propose something more concrete to Paris, instead of offering little concrete.
. . . (Continued)
The fastest way for Europe to counter American threats is through 🇫🇷🇪🇺🇹🇷 Franco-Turkish rapprochement.
The question is whether 🇹🇷 Ankara and 🇫🇷Paris are willing to sacrifice or will instead out-rat/out-bid each other to Washington.
. . . (Continued)
No Elon Musk.
Europe does not need American 🇺🇸 and Russian 🇷🇺 foreign interference to make “Europe Great Again”.
Europe needs👇
🔸 EU Unity 🇪🇺
🔸 EU Defence 🚀
🔸 EU Bonds 💶
🔸 EU Nuclear ☢️
🔸 EU Technology & Social Media👨🔬
#Türkiye’s 🇹🇷 most read (top 3) newspaper @Hurriyet translated & reprinted my Op-Ed into Turkish languagefor domestic 🇹🇷 audience ⤵️
🇪🇺🇹🇷 Çok teşekkürler 🙏
Main points of Op-Ed 👇
🔸Trump 🇺🇸 #hypocrisy with Zelenskyy 🇺🇦
🔸#Nuclear France 🇫🇷🇪🇺 & German 🇩🇪🇪🇺#Eurobonds to replace Washington?
. . . Continued
. . . Continued
🔸#US 🇺🇸 gets closer to #Russia 🇷🇺 in order to fight #China 🇨🇳 at expense of 🇪🇺 Europe, including Türkiye 🇹🇷
🔸#Türkiye 🇹🇷 is an ally of Kiev 🇺🇦 & must be included in 🇫🇷🇩🇪🇪🇺 core European security architecture
Link 🔗 Turkish language Hürriyet 🇹🇷 hurriyet.com.tr/dunya/ukrayna-…
[END].
#French 🇫🇷🇪🇺 #intelligence community publishes my views on considering #Türkiye 🇹🇷 in European security architecture 👇
Ex-senior-intelligence & military-industrial expert Alain Rodier adds my views in 2025 public article for ‘Centre Francais Recherche sur les Renseignement’👇
cf2r.org/actualite/quel…
“The general sentiment in the EU is that Turkey is more important than ever on security cooperation. That ranges from military procurement to Ukraine, energy, critical infrastructure, you name it," said @samueljsdv.bsky.social.
My latest for @turkeyrecap.bsky.social:
As doubts grow over US defense commitments to Ukraine and the EU, Ankara’s role in regional security is likely to expand due to its existing force and weapons production capacities.
@diegocupolo.bsky.social reports with comments by @samueljsdv.bsky.social, Daria Isachenko and @yoruk.bsky.social.
. . . Continued
🔸#US 🇺🇸 gets closer to #Russia 🇷🇺 in order to fight #China 🇨🇳 at expense of 🇪🇺 Europe, including Türkiye 🇹🇷
🔸#Türkiye 🇹🇷 is an ally of Kiev 🇺🇦 & must be included in 🇫🇷🇩🇪🇪🇺 core European security architecture
Link 🔗 Turkish language Hürriyet 🇹🇷 hurriyet.com.tr/dunya/ukrayna-…
[END].
#Türkiye’s 🇹🇷 most read (top 3) newspaper @Hurriyet translated & reprinted my Op-Ed into Turkish languagefor domestic 🇹🇷 audience ⤵️
🇪🇺🇹🇷 Çok teşekkürler 🙏
Main points of Op-Ed 👇
🔸Trump 🇺🇸 #hypocrisy with Zelenskyy 🇺🇦
🔸#Nuclear France 🇫🇷🇪🇺 & German 🇩🇪🇪🇺#Eurobonds to replace Washington?
. . . Continued
🎇 @Turkeyrecap.bsky.social Editor @DiegoCupolo.bsky.social kindly asked me to predict EU-Türkiye 🇪🇺🇹🇷 in 2025 🎇
5-points👇⤵️
1️⃣ #EU-#Türkiye 🇪🇺🇹🇷 relations in 2025 are fragile and very dependent on 🇺🇸 Donald Trump.
. . . 👇
. . .
Now, geo-politics, customs union and new security agenda are at play.
Paradoxically, EU-Türkiye 🇪🇺🇹🇷 relations have never been more relevant and fragile at the same time.
Read my article (2024) about #Türkiye in Europe’s New Security Architecture 🇪🇺🇹🇷 liberalforum.eu/wp-content/u...
. . .
Perhaps personal relationship of two leaders is lacking. Perhaps structural-divisions are too great between two of Europe’s leading powers.
Only time will tell.
What remains certain: 🇫🇷 popular misconceptions about 🇹🇷 and 🇫🇷 should be relegated to the past.
. . . (Continued)
. . .
Complex points of contention 🇫🇷🇹🇷👇
🔸Africa influence
🔸Caucasus & Central Asia
🔸Customs Union & EIB
🔸Security, Space & Defence
🔸Strategic Autonomy
🔸Eastern Mediterranean
🔸Cyprus territorial integrity
🔸Greek maritime
🔸Nuclear Plants
🔸Theology & Laicite
🔸Syria
🔸Migration
. . . (Continued)
. . .
@EmmanuelMacron.bsky.social should accept Erdoğan’s invitation to Ankara instead of always stalling.
@rterdogana.bsky.social personnel should privately propose something more concrete to Paris, instead of offering little concrete.
. . . (Continued)
The fastest way for Europe to counter American threats is through 🇫🇷🇪🇺🇹🇷 Franco-Turkish rapprochement.
The question is whether 🇹🇷 Ankara and 🇫🇷Paris are willing to sacrifice or will instead out-rat/out-bid each other to Washington.
. . . (Continued)
