Excited to share our latest Occasional Paper!
This paper critically reviews existing literature on Russian & Chinese influence in the Western Balkans & the 🇪🇺's Eastern Neighbourhood.
Read the full paper: tinyurl.com/2k82z392
@horizoneu.bsky.social @balnik.bsky.social @juliafriedrich.bsky.social
"There is an expectation in Germany that if you do nothing, the status quo is maintained. It's not: things will certainly get worse."
Wise words on the need for continued support to #Ukraine & mobilizing ourselves in the #EU by Yevhen Hlibovytsky & @agnieszka-brugger.de at @libmod.de tonight.
Deutschland kann mehr tun als einfach nur zuschauen, wie die katastrophale Lage in Kyjiw und andernorts diesen Winter immer schlimmer wird. Mein Kollege @balnik.bsky.social hat konkrete Handlungsoptionen, die über Applaus für die mutigen Ukrainer:innen hinausgehen 👇
Feminist foreign policies talk equality, but local feminist peacebuilders still face donor scepticism, unstable funding & political pushback.
Without structural change, FFPs risk perpetuating the problems they claim to solve.
📝 Our new piece in @politicsgenderj.bsky.social doi.org/10.1017/S174...
Can a ceasefire monitoring mission help Ukraine? 🇺🇦🕊️
@juliafriedrich.bsky.social & Lukasz Mickiewicz argue it’s a possible, though flawed, option. Lessons from the OSCE’s SMM (2014-22) show it's no silver bullet — real deterrence still matters: gppi.net/2025/04/16/p...
This research is part of our project "Thinking the war from the end: Insights for the war against Ukraine" (gppi.net/project/thin...), funded by Deutsche Stiftung Friedensforschung.
Many thanks to colleagues @gppi.bsky.social and to >40 experts & officials who shared their insights with me!
4) European leaders should engage with justified criticisms of Western hypocrisy while also working to counter Russian narratives.
More on the lessons Europeans can learn from why their engagement of the Global South on Ukraine largely failed: gppi.net/2025/01/28/p...
3) European leaders should be pragmatic about the role Brazil, China, India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa & Turkey can and want to play. They should view some of them not (only) as partners but also as potential spoilers of diplomatic efforts.
2) Mediation efforts are most successful if they are apolitical. Most third-party mediators prefer a low-risk involvement - with nobody prepared to take the place of the #US as main driver of talks.
1) While Brazil, China, India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa & Turkey mostly oppose the war against Ukraine, they also view it as an opportunity to increase their international status in a changing world order. Their motives for engaging with the war are mostly transactional.
The US & #Russia are set to continue talks today in Riyadh. What's the role of third-party mediators like #SaudiArabia in the war against #Ukraine? I had an in-depth look at past & future engagement of Brazil, China, India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa & Turkey. Key findings👇 gppi.net/2025/03/19/o...
🎧 Tune in tonight (19:15–20:00 CET) to hear GPPi's @juliafriedrich.bsky.social on Deutschlandfunk discussing the Trump/Putin call and what the EU’s defense spending plans could mean for Germany’s military and its role in Europe.
👉 Listen live: www.deutschlandfunk.de/zur-diskussi...
❓How/why have third-party actors engaged in mediation efforts in the Russia-Ukraine war?
❓Realistically, what role can they play in the peace process?
Read @juliafriedrich.bsky.social's 5️⃣ recommendations for effective engagement with third-party actors on Ukraine & beyond: gppi.net/2025/03/19/o...
GPPi's @juliafriedrich.bsky.social was on SWR Aktuell Radio this morning, offering her insights on what yesterday's talks in Saudi Arabia mean for the US and Ukraine and how Russia might react to the proposal for a ceasefire.
🎧 Listen below (in German)
Was die gestrigen Gespräche in Saudi-Arabien für #US und #Ukraine bedeuten & wie #Russland auf den Vorschlag zu einer #Waffenruhe reagieren könnte - darüber habe ich heute morgen mit SWR-Aktuell gesprochen 👇
www.swr.de/swraktuell/r...
There is a "gap between what the Ukrainians need and what the Europeans can supply," @juliafriedrich.bsky.social told RFE/RL. "Moscow has put everything into this war, so it's going to take a lot more than a friendly phone call and meeting to make Russia stop."👇 www.rferl.org/a/putin-trum...
🌍 What is Germany's role in a changing global order?
🤝 We partnered with @gmfus.bsky.social for the working group "Zeitenwende - Navigating Change in a Fractured World".
Check out the GMF report, with a foreword by @muelherr.bsky.social & @sdavidwilp.bsky.social!👇
The #MSC has shown just how much Germany needs to step up quickly to find its role in a changing global order, especially on the war against #Ukraine.
Thanks @gmfus.bsky.social for inviting me to contribute to a collection of priorities for the next German government 👇
www.gmfus.org/news/germany...
1/ Europe at Munich Security Conference looked like deer in Trump administration's headlights. How have we got this far without a concrete European plan for Ukraine to put on table? How is there *still* no proper consensus among major EU governments (+UK) on how far Europe is willing to step up?
"Scholz' Haus sehe keinen eiligen Handlungsbedarf"
Laut @spiegel.de sperrt der Kanzler weiteres Geld für Kyiv & damit zusätzlichen Waffenhilfen bis zum neuen Haushalt (Sommer/Herbst '25) - während die Lage in #Ukraine schwieriger nicht sein könnte. Unverantwortlich
www.spiegel.de/politik/ukra...
"Putin is closer to his aim of splintering the West than at any other time in the quarter century since he took power. Is this a moment at which to expect Putin to negotiate a peace deal?"
Must-read by Robert Kagan on Trump's options in #Ukraine @theatlantic.com
www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
Grateful for the invitation to #France24 to discuss the renewed Ukrainian activity in Kursk & the general outlook in #Ukraine heading into 2025 and a second #Trump presidency 👇
www.france24.com/en/video/202...
More than 10 years since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the human cost of occupation is undeniable: torture, propaganda and the deletion of identity
@GPPi.bsky.social @juliafriedrich.bsky.social and Polina Lebedeva
reunir-horizon.eu/russian-peac...
Russian occupation in #Ukraine destroys lives and livelihoods, but it also attempts to erase Ukrainian identity and occupy hearts & minds. Polina Lebedeva & I had a closer look at this for EUvsDisinfo 👇
Discussing the small questions today @gmfus.bsky.social. Thanks for having me!
A nuclear threshold can be set as low as you want. It’s a made-up thing, not a natural law. But the lower you set it the harder it is to enforce & the harder you have to work to establish credibility in it.
Habe heute mit Höhrer:innen bei #wdr5 über die Aufhebung von Reichweitenbeschränkungen diskutiert. Gab einige Kontroversen, teils aufgrund schräger "Fakten", teils getrieben von viel Unsicherheit.
Wir sind so viel stärker als Russland, warum realisieren wirs nicht.
www1.wdr.de/radio/wdr5/s...
Dieser Wahlkampf darf die Außenpolitik nicht (wieder) ausklammern. Dabei wird es weder reichen, „Frieden“ zu plakatieren, noch pauschal mehr Verteidigungsausgaben zu fordern, ohne zu sagen, wo denn das Geld dafür herkommen soll.👇 www.ipg-journal.de/rubriken/aus...
Genau rechtzeitig nach #Trump-Wahl und vor #G20-Gipfel behandelt die neueste Ausgabe der #Ukraine Analysen das Thema Friedensverhandlungen.
Mit dabei: mein Beitrag zu einer möglichen Vermittlerrolle von Brasilien, Indien, China & Südafrika👇
laender-analysen.de/ukraine-anal...
What's the gap?! Glad you asked. Abi Watson and @juliafriedrich.bsky.social explained it here -- basically the EU managed to spend down most of what it had set aside in terms of flexible-enough funds to be useful for crisis management until 2027 already now. gppi.net/media/Watson...