Concept of a floor?

Mensch

Alright, I’m home now so here’s the Norm update. Yesterday at 4pm, I got a text from a family I’ve been helping who had a loved one abducted a couple of days after Renée Good’s murder. This was the family that Norm Nation kept from being evicted (and you delivered). ICE had released their loved one.

"good things are possible and we can do them" says upstart mayor, shocking the political establishment.

I'm torn on this, because the Dems Senate candidates are all individually polling quite well, but the "double haters" and small slice of Trump skeptic Rs will be the difference between an ordinary Midterm cutting against the president and a historic landslide.

Sadly, neither family produced a defensive tackle that could hold two gaps.

I, for one, look forward to his upcoming beef with the Ecumenical Patriarch of Constantinople as he works his way through the list of religious sects

Now's the time to double down of AI posts with him as Jesus. Maybe Moses, too.

These numbers are already breaking through where Bush was in November 2006, at the midterms. (Gallup's last poll then had him at 38 - 56)

Folks, this is what a GWB second term cratering looks like, just earlier in the term. At ~35% approval, almost everything is on the table.

Don't sleep on whale oil, folks.

Some other context, Trump was at 40% approval in 2018 when the Dems picked up 41 seats in the House. Educational polarization has sharply increased since then--meaning the Rs are even more dependent on low engagement voters now than they were 8 years ago. They're walking on a knife's edge.

People are saying bsky.app/profile/kwco...

yeah, Indiana was hit particularly hard by the 2007-2009 collapse in manufacturing.

35% with over two years to go and no plan to change course

I look forward to being the first country to lose a war in the 21st century due to something called Swamp Fever.

Look, my man was very clear that he never took off his underwear during that massage.

2006 was wild. The vast majority of Democratic gains in the House were rural districts. The Dems flipped three seats in *Indiana* alone. By contemporary standards, that election might of well taken place on the moon

For reference, GWB was at 38% approval in Nov 2006 per Gallup, when the Dems picked up 31 seats in the House and 5 in the Senate.

More and more people are saying:

Financial crisis hit at end of Bush. We elected Obama but people forgot to blame Bush.

Covid hit at end of Trump 1. We elected Biden but people forgot to blame Trump.

Great Depression hit at beginning of Hoover. He stuck around refusing to help for years, then Republicans lost for decades.

Folks, this is what a GWB second term cratering looks like, just earlier in the term. At ~35% approval, almost everything is on the table.

Watching the Democrats trot out 70+ year olds like Mills, Brown, Cooper, etc in all these must win senate races really drives home the importance of state legislatures. It’s a testament to how thin the Democratic bench is in many states, because the state legislative pipeline is in shambles 1/3

the success of the schtick is evidence of the weakness of the alternatives, I think. It isn’t like we’re seeing Platner clones find success around the country.

Incidentally, when the Democrats gerrymander the Virginia Republican Party into smithereens after tomorrow‘s election it might create some bipartisan consensus on the issue.

In NC and OH, this struggle to develop a bench is the product of being gerrymandered into oblivion for 1.5 decades and we’re seeing the full ripple effect now. A national gerrymandering ban should be a priority for the next Democratic congress for this reason and many others.

nothing against these candidates personally, but there should be better establishment candidate. Platner might cost the Dems a senate majority. The path back to relevance in many states (like NC and OH) has to come from the local level. 2/3

Watching the Democrats trot out 70+ year olds like Mills, Brown, Cooper, etc in all these must win senate races really drives home the importance of state legislatures. It’s a testament to how thin the Democratic bench is in many states, because the state legislative pipeline is in shambles 1/3

Damnit

Comparative Political Studies - Volume 59, Number 6 Table of contents for Comparative Political Studies, 59, 6

The special issue of @cpsjournal.bsky.social “Back from the Brink: Countering Illiberalism in Liberal Democracies”, co-edited by myself and Isabela Mares, was just published. The issue includes 8 articles, many of which set new research agendas. A🧵w/overview 1/10
journals.sagepub.com/toc/CPS/curr...