On Mercia's ($MERC.L) Balance Sheet to Earnings Transition Growing, profitable fund manager trading at a 15% discount to legacy VC portfolio (to be largely sold over 2yrs, with a history of exits above NAV). Even with a 50% FV haircut, trading at ~5x EBITDA

centraltendency.substack.com/p/on-mercias...

$MERC $MERC.L - Mercia continues to perform in a weak macro, announcing EBITDA for FY26E (YE 3/31/26) to be "materially ahead" of expectations and >£200m in fund inflows in Q4 (vs. ~£1.8bn in 3rd party AUM at 9/30) with no redemptions. Buyback also renewed bsky.app/profile/roha...

On Arlandastad's ($AGROUP.ST) Accelerated Development Pace 'Airport city' developer shifting to capital returns as project interest grows. Target dividend equal to 8.7% yield, funded by property sales above BV. NAV discount of 60% based on recent transactions

centraltendency.substack.com/p/on-arlanda...

$AGROUP $AGROUP.ST - Arlandastad's new dividend target (equal to 8.7% yield) signals more property sales amid inflecting interest in its development projects. Monetization should help unlock value, with AGROUP trading at a 45% NAV discount vs. book and 60% vs. recent transactions

FY26E is poised to show further growth, with Q1 weekly temp hours well ahead of previous years. STAF continues to believe it trades below intrinsic value and focus on SH returns, with another ~4% buyback announced after earnings (~27% decline in shares outstanding since mid-2023)

$STAF $STAF.L - Very interesting color on Staffline's H2 FY25 call, indicating that outperformance was achieved with minimal contribution from the major new contract (expected to RR in FY26E). STAF also cited a whopping ~£20m in FY25 W/C growth investments against just a ~£50m EV

Key driver of growth is continued ramping in new verticals - Bemobi's payment volume was almost entirely from telecom 2yrs ago, but today is increasingly weighted towards utilities (electricity, waste) and education, highlighting the Company's traction across diverse end-markets

$OTEC $OTEC.OL - Continued strength from Otello's main asset Bemobi $BMOB3. Q4 payments revenue accelerated further to +50% YoY, while margins held steady despite growth investments. Core Vertical Payments (incl. SaaS) is now 65% of revenue (+9% YoY) bsky.app/profile/roha...

On Bango's ($BGO.L) Subscription Bundling Opportunity High margin, leading payments co at ~7.5x EBITDA with profits inflecting from rapidly growing sub-bundling SaaS (subs +100% YoY) with long runway, hidden by abating integration and growth investments

centraltendency.substack.com/p/on-bangos-...

$BGO $BGO.L - Bango FY25 update shows continued DVM success (~36% of rev), with ARR +30% YoY and 117% NRR. Growth and cost actions drove EBITDA +17% YoY (ex. one time income; +480bps to 29% margins), despite timing impacts. Positive FCF expected in FY26E bsky.app/profile/roha...

On Staffline's ($AIM.STAF) Market Share Growth Despite a leading position in resilient temp staffing, substantial share growth in a soft market, consistent FCF under new mgmt, and 20% of shares repurchased in 2yrs, STAF trades at <3x EBITDA

centraltendency.substack.com/p/on-staffli...

$STAF $STAF.L - Strong FY25 update from Staffline, ahead of consensus. GP +11% and EBIT +28% YoY, driving +220bps conversion to 16%. Growth led by a major new logistics contract, share growth in a tough macro, and tight cost control. £7.5m buyback ongoing bsky.app/profile/roha...

On a Review of 2025 A review of 2025 portfolio performance and some updates on write-ups

A brief review of 2025 portfolio performance and some updates on write-ups - $OTEC $OTEC.OL, $STAF $STAF.L, $MERC $MERC.L, $BGO $BGO.L, $CAU $CAU.L, $EML $EML.AX. Thanks to everyone who engaged/reached out this past year! centraltendency.substack.com/p/on-a-revie...

On Otello's ($OSE.OTEC) Stake in Bemobi Otello's stake in Bemobi trades at ~1.5x EBITDA on a look-through basis, despite growing double digits in SaaS/Payments with ~30% EBITDA margins and a new board committed to maximizing SH value

centraltendency.substack.com/p/on-otellos...

$OTEC $OTEC.OL - Bemobi $BMOB3 announces ~R$135m in dividends to be paid in Dec. 2025, ~20% higher than expected. Represents a ~7.5% yield at Otello that will be used for further buybacks. OTEC continues to trade at a ~20% discount to its Bemobi stake
bsky.app/profile/roha...

On Mercia's ($MERC.L) Balance Sheet to Earnings Transition Growing, profitable fund manager trading at a 15% discount to legacy VC portfolio (to be largely sold over 2yrs, with a history of exits above NAV). Even with a 50% FV haircut, trading at ~5x EBITDA

substack.com/home/post/p-...

$MERC $MERC.L Despite a slow market, Mercia saw +14% EBITDA YoY in H1 FY26 (9.30.25) from scale efficiencies (margins +380bps to 24.6%). UK gov domestic investment initiatives are driving material fundraising pipeline and divestiture plan remains on track
bsky.app/profile/roha...

On Mercia's ($MERC.L) Balance Sheet to Earnings Transition Growing, profitable fund manager trading at a 15% discount to legacy VC portfolio (to be largely sold over 2yrs, with a history of exits above NAV). Even with a 50% FV haircut, trading at ~5x EBITDA

centraltendency.substack.com/p/on-mercias...

$MERC $MERC.L - Mercia trades at a 15% discount to its legacy venture portfolio (with 70% to be sold within 2yrs), despite a growing, highly profitable fund management biz and a history of exits above NAV. Even assuming a 50% investment haircut, MERC trades at just ~5x EBITDA

On Otello's ($OSE.OTEC) Stake in Bemobi Otello's stake in Bemobi trades at ~1.5x EBITDA on a look-through basis, despite growing double digits in SaaS/Payments with ~30% EBITDA margins and a new board committed to maximizing SH value

centraltendency.substack.com/p/on-otellos...

$OTEC $OTEC.OL - Accelerating growth from Otello's main asset Bemobi $BMOB3, with +40% Payments revenue YoY (34% of total) and 34% EBITDA margins in Q3. Remaining FY25E divs from Bemobi represent a 6.5% yield at Otello, likely utilized for further buybacks

bsky.app/profile/roha...

On Bango's ($BGO.L) Subscription Bundling Opportunity High margin, leading payments co at ~7.5x EBITDA with profits inflecting from rapidly growing sub-bundling SaaS (subs +100% YoY) with long runway, hidden by abating integration and growth investments

centraltendency.substack.com/p/on-bangos-...

$BGO $BGO.L - Leveraging its high margin telco payments segment to build a rapidly growing subscription bundling SaaS (subs +100% YoY), Bango trades at ~7.5x EBITDA despite minimal competition and ample runway. Inflecting profits hidden by moderating integration and growth spend

On Centaur Media's ($LSE.CAU) Main Brands - The Lawyer and MW Mini MBA Despite transforming into a recurring, digital subscription business with high margins and negative W/C, Centaur has seen its stock decline 20% over 5yrs due to headline results and exogenous factors

centraltendency.substack.com/p/on-centaur...

$CAU.L - Centaur Media announces agreement to sell The Lawyer for ~£43m, higher than my initial estimates, just months after selling MiniMBA for ~£19m. With that, Centaur has now sold both major assets following the strategic review. Great outcome for SHs bsky.app/profile/roha...

On Otello's ($OSE.OTEC) Stake in Bemobi Otello's stake in Bemobi trades at ~1.5x EBITDA on a look-through basis, despite growing double digits in SaaS/Payments with ~30% EBITDA margins and a new board committed to maximizing SH value

centraltendency.substack.com/p/on-otellos...

More interestingly, OTEC is granting options to its board/management that vest based on a sale of its main asset $BMOB3 Bemobi (with the percentage of vesting based on how much of Bemobi is sold) AND a return of any capital from a sale to shareholders

$OTEC $OTEC.OL - Otello calls for another shareholder meeting to continue its share buyback - Seeking an additional 10% authorization, with ~12% of shares repurchased since year-end bsky.app/profile/roha...

$EML.AX - Out of EML after FY25 results, given ongoing execution risk. Guiding for 4-5% FY26E customer rev. growth vs. ~1% in FY25 (after adj.) with flat costs despite GTM and tech investments. Valuation not overly demanding (~9x EBITDA), but seems less attractive vs. other ideas

On Otello's ($OSE.OTEC) Stake in Bemobi Otello's stake in Bemobi trades at ~1.5x EBITDA on a look-through basis, despite growing double digits in SaaS/Payments with ~30% EBITDA margins and a new board committed to maximizing SH value

centraltendency.substack.com/p/on-otellos...